Blake

Ex-Disney, cat lover, live streaming aficionado, time traveler, aspiring crypto polymath, and Co-Founder.

[George Noble @gnoble79]

OPENAI IS FALLING APART IN REAL TIME

I've watched companies implode for decades.

This one has all the warning signs.

OpenAI declared "Code Red" in December.

Altman sent an internal memo telling employees to drop everything because Google's Gemini 3 is eating their lunch. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff publicly ditched ChatGPT for Gemini after using it for two hours.

ChatGPT traffic fell in November. Second month-over-month decline of 2025. Meanwhile Gemini jumped to 650 million monthly active users.

The company that was supposed to build AGI can't keep its chatbot competitive.

But the real story is the money...

OpenAI lost $12 BILLION in a single quarter according to Microsoft's own fiscal disclosures.

Deutsche Bank estimates $143 billion in cumulative negative cash flow before the company turns profitable.

Their analysts put it bluntly: "No startup in history has operated with losses on anything approaching this scale."

They're burning $15 million per day on Sora alone.

$5 billion annually to generate copyright-infringing memes.

Even Sora's lead engineer admitted the "economics are currently completely unsustainable."

Here's the big math problem nobody wants to discuss:

It's going to cost 5x the energy and money to make these models 2x better.

The low-hanging fruit is gone.

Every incremental improvement now requires exponentially more compute, more data centers, more power.

Reports suggest OpenAI's large training runs in 2025 failed to produce models better than prior versions.

GPT-5 launched to widespread disappointment. Users called it "underwhelming" and "horrible." OpenAI had to restore GPT-4o within 24 hours because users preferred the old model.

Altman had promised GPT-5 would make GPT-4 feel "mildly embarrassing." Instead, users complained it was worse at basic math and geography.

They've released GPT-5.1, GPT-5.2 since.

Same complaints each time: too corporate, too safe, robotic, boring.

The talent exodus makes this even worse:

CTO Mira Murati. Gone.
Chief Research Officer Bob McGrew. Gone.
Chief Scientist Ilya Sutskever. Gone.
President Greg Brockman. Gone.

Half the AI safety team departed. Multiple executives reportedly cited "psychological abuse" under Altman's leadership.

And now Elon Musk is suing for up to $134 billion.

A federal judge just ruled the case goes to jury trial in April. There's "plenty of evidence" that OpenAI's leaders promised to maintain the nonprofit structure that Musk funded.

Musk provided $38 million in early funding based on those assurances. Now he wants his share of the $500 billion valuation.

OpenAI called it "harassment." But the judge disagreed.

Here's what I think happens next:

The AI hype cycle is peaking.

The diminishing returns are becoming impossible to hide.

Competitors are catching up.

The lawsuits are piling up.

OpenAI needs to generate $200 billion in annual revenue by 2030 to justify their projections.

That's 15x growth in five years while costs keep exploding.

Even Sam Altman admitted investors are "overexcited" about AI.

His exact words: "Someone is going to lose a phenomenal amount of money."

If I were running an AI startup with good traction right now, I'd be looking for an exit. Sell into the hype before the music stops.

My positioning:

I'm not touching OpenAI-adjacent plays at these valuations. The risk profile is astronomical.

If you're exposed to the Magnificent 7 through AI infrastructure bets, consider trimming. The gap between promised revolution and delivered reality has never been wider.

The smart money is rotating into sectors where valuations actually reflect fundamentals.

Small and mid-caps are trading near decade lows relative to Big Tech while earnings growth is only marginally lower.

Markets can price risk. But they can't price chaos.

And OpenAI is chaos dressed up in a $500 billion valuation.

[Cracker Barrel @CrackerBarrel]

We thank our guests for sharing your voices and love for Cracker Barrel. We said we would listen, and we have. Our new logo is going away and our “Old Timer” will remain.

At Cracker Barrel, it’s always been – and always will be – about serving up delicious food, warm welcomes, and the kind of country hospitality that feels like family. As a proud American institution, our 70,000 hardworking employees look forward to welcoming you to our table soon.

[Robert Sterling @RobertMSterling]

I don’t want to connect my coffee machine to the wifi network. I don’t want to share the file with OneDrive. I don’t want to download an app to check my car’s fluid levels. I don’t want to scan a QR code to view the restaurant menu. I don’t want to let Google know my location before showing me the search results. I don’t want to include a Teams link on the calendar invite. I don’t want to pay 50 different monthly subscription fees for all my software. I don’t want to upgrade to TurboTax platinum plus audit protection. I don’t want to install the Webex plugin to join the meeting. I don’t want to share my car’s braking data with the actuaries at State Farm. I don’t want to text with your AI chatbot. I don’t want to download the Instagram app to look at your picture. I don’t want to type in my email address to view the content on your company’s website. I don’t want text messages with promo codes. I don’t want to leave your company a five-star Google review in exchange for the chance to win a $20 Starbucks gift card. I don’t want to join your exclusive community in the metaverse. I don’t want AI to help me write my comments on LinkedIn. I don’t even want to be on LinkedIn in the first place.

I just want to pay for a product one time (and only one time), know that it’s going to work flawlessly, press 0 to speak to an operator if I need help, and otherwise be left alone and treated with some small measure of human dignity, if that’s not too much to ask anymore.

[Blake @BlakeKuhre]

@TheEXCop That’s not Wuhan. That’s the Resorts World gondola in Genting, Malaysia.

[Matthew Seedorff @MattSeedorff]

NEW: Two people from Oregon were arrested inside the Palisades Fire zone for impersonating firefighters. Police say they had a fire truck which was bought in an auction, were wearing CAL-Fire t-shirts, and claimed to be with “Roaring River FD”… which doesn’t exist.

[Los Angeles Times @latimes]

Mayor Karen Bass was at embassy cocktail party in Ghana as Palisades fire exploded https://t.co/eaUwrW6KPh

[Jeffery Mead @the_jefferymead]

Here is the difference between X and Tiktok.

I posted the same video on both platforms calling out the terrible things the LAFD assistant chief said and I said she shouldn't be in that position!

On Tiktok, it got up to 1.7 million views before likely some woke employee took the video down and gave my account a strike.

On X, @elonmusk (the OWNER of the platform) quote tweeted my post and said, "Yes" and now my post has like 9 million views.

These platforms are not the same. Glad to have the freedom on this platform to say the necessary things.

[Blake @BlakeKuhre]

Power lines burning above home @KTLA @ABC7 @NBCLA @FOXLA @cbs2kcal9 https://t.co/ltgXtYBUZA

[Robert F. Kennedy Jr @RobertKennedyJr]

Think about it, liberals. If you vote for Kamala Harris, you are on the same side as Dick Cheney. Do you think he endorsed Harris because he has changed his views? Or is it, rather, that her views are closer to his than Trump's are? A glance at her belligerent pro-war rhetoric answers that question.

[JHG @sacredcroc]

@LADWP You are a public government agency not a startup, why are you using marketing language about “out of 1.5 million” in all your tweets about the thousands of Angelenos you’ve left in deadly heat for days? Just give people information!

[Blake @BlakeKuhre]

And yet the hard working men & women of @LADWP continue to toil for days in a record heatwave with thousands of Angelenos still w/o power—Paris has comfortable temps in the 60s this weekend. #ToneDeaf @KTLA @ABC7 @NBCLA @FOXLA @cbs2kcal9

[L.A. Times Sports @latimessports]

L.A. Mayor Karen Bass receives Paralympic flag at Paris closing ceremony https://t.co/g3vXMewXsl

[Blake @BlakeKuhre]

@katnbcla @BabsGray @_williamcrane @LADWP @KarenBassLA @GavinNewsom Worth including that the Mayor is reportedly in Paris (again) this weekend, with highs in the 60s—maybe she can do a press conference from there

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Wisdom

[Blake @BlakeKuhre]

What a great story indeed! You truly helped put Recoleta Cemetery on the map and made this documentary come to life.

[Blake @BlakeKuhre]

You all do great work! It was a privilege having you in the story and represented in the documentary.

[Hacé feliz a un gato @hacefelizungato]

Nos entrevistaron en @AlJazeera sobre la situación de gatos en las calles de Buenos Aires! https://t.co/1wxXXOtOX6

[Blake @BlakeKuhre]

Thrilled my documentary is back in the conversation. Thanks @lautarogrinspan looking forward to making available online to view for all next week!

[Al Jazeera English @AJEnglish]

Recoleta Cemetery in Buenos Aires, once filled with stray cats, has seen big changes due to evolving animal welfare ideas.
https://t.co/3w1Gjv2pEM

[Blake @BlakeKuhre]

“Go back to guarding Doritos” was likely the best quote to come out of the hearing today.

[Robert F. Kennedy Jr @RobertKennedyJr]

Now is the time for every American who loves our country to step back from the division, renounce all violence, and unite in prayer for President Trump and his family.

[Nayib Bukele @nayibbukele]

Democracy?

[Blake @BlakeKuhre]

@maxkeiser @stacyherbert you both were spot-on about El Salvador—first time here and only a few days in but what a difference 2 years has made—the locals are indeed freer than they’ve been in 45 years and the future is indeed bright!