GabeF1

F1 Nerd . Web3 Advocate. #COYS. A confused lover of too many industries 🪄

[GabeF1 @BlockchainGabe]

@MattP1Gallagher They’ve done it again ffs Matt

[Investing Enjoyer @CryptoProfAdam]

Average day for people in crypto not using the RSPS

[Rob @Rob_Jones19]

Haven't posted on X much lately.
Ultimately it's a boring market that requires patience. The dashboard users know my views from our weekly market analysis. It's just about having a bit of patience here. But thought I'd break down the charts and add a bit of opinion.

Sorry it's a little long.

Both the GLI and CLI models are fairly flat. We had a small steady grind higher in the GLI as the shutdown ended. Now government is open again, I'm expecting both to steady themselves and grind upwards instead of downwards like we saw recently.

The shutdown ending triggers the liquidity deployment we outlined last week on our dashboard.
Treasury built substantial reserves through accelerated bill issuance that are now deploying alongside catch-up spending. Fed QT ends December 1st, eliminating that drain entirely.

Credit transmission is still pretty low and the forward indicators show it moving lower over the next 8 weeks. For us to see meaningful credit liquidity, even if CLI moves upwards, we need the Fed to intervene and help banks improve this metric. Rate cuts matter much more now with the short-dated bill refinancing cycles and our predictive models still expect one for December.

Beyond the shutdown deployment, the maturity tracker shows heavy refinancing ahead. December peaks with significant rollover demand, and we've got over $10 trillion rolling over the next 12 months.
When debt rolls, liquidity is needed to support it. Treasury can't just let bills mature without replacing them. This creates ongoing liquidity demand that needs to be absorbed by the market. With Fed QT ending and reserves no longer being drained, the system has more capacity to handle this refinancing without stress.

Looking at both fair value models, $BTC is currently undervalued. Which constitutes a great time to accumulate for long term holders looking to DCA. I'd still DCA into the dominant major and not $BTC though.

Dominant major is $XMR which has done incredible the past few weeks, decorrelating from the entire market. The aim soon is building systems focusing on this but we need more reliable Monero data. Everyone pester @monero on our behalf.

HODL index has slowly DCA'd anyone following out of the market, started scaling out gradually from August 31st but only just gone to complete zero. I'm personally still 50% allocated to $XMR but I'm willing to take more risk and I 100% believe where the market is heading.

In the capital allocation tracker, $BTC relative strength is still declining. Funds are still moving out and away, not to the token yet. Until this changes, I'm not expecting a big bounce. Anything meaningful will be led by liquidity anyway.
We do have a signal on that tracker that's only kicked off 3 times in the past few years - July 1st 2021, December 28th 2022, and August 13th 2024.
It shows when capital is moving into $BTC but price hasn't followed yet. Generally picks the very bottom. If we get that again, I'd personally go full port. Unlikely though.

My general outlook is bullish.
The shutdown resolved, deployment has started, Fed turns supportive in two weeks.
The liquidity injection is confirmed and measurable. Transmission is weak which constraints the multiplier, but the setup is executing. Bitcoin trading below fair value with improving liquidity conditions.
Ultimately, stay patient, don't panic, don't look at your port if you're staying allocated and add funds in the dips.
If you're not allocated, also stay patient, gradually move in as and when we visibly see the conditions improve.
Full analysis: https://t.co/LIFqa71pf8

[GabeF1 @BlockchainGabe]

@Rob_Jones19 You sir, are a wizard 🤝

[GabeF1 @BlockchainGabe]

Lando and Oscar after Singapore in 80% humidity and 35 degrees.

#Formula1 #F1 @McLarenF1

[formularacers @formularacers_]

🚨 | McLaren unveil their new "stealth mode" race suits.

[Rodney @cryptojourneyrs]

At 26, he launched a website that would change Bitcoin forever.

At 29, he was sentenced to die in prison.

After 10 years behind bars, Donald Trump just pardoned him.

Here's the wild story of Ross Ulbricht, Bitcoin's most controversial pioneer:

[Andrew Tate @Cobratate]

🎁 TATE'S 10 BTC CHRISTMAS GIVEAWAY 🎁

In conjunction with $Daddy coin and https://t.co/zKLCDvFxTq 🌲🎄

To qualify:

1) Join the newsletter https://t.co/Lc5d0JFhy3
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3) Sign up to https://t.co/zKLCDvFxTq
4) Join the telegram https://t.co/mLwXFqQPC8
5) Retweet this tweet

Imagine getting transferred 10 entire Bitcoin.

THIS CHRISTMAS MIRACLE WILL CHANGE YOUR LIFE 🎅🏼

Make this a Christmas to remember for the rest of your life.

Love, Top G ❤️

[GabeF1 @BlockchainGabe]

@TheSpursExpress We are three games in ffs 🤣🤣🤣

[GabeF1 @BlockchainGabe]

@433_marc You’re cooked. Just like the FIA

[GabeF1 @BlockchainGabe]

@fiagirly We are here and it’s absolutely torrential raining 😅

[GabeF1 @BlockchainGabe]

@Mrjamieohara1 Yes we fucking can you melt.

Our fanbase are a joke, and are the reason for this repeated mediocrity.

Actually embarrassed to be a spurs fan at the moment.

[GabeF1 @BlockchainGabe]

@thespursweb Our fanbase are a small minded, obsessed, mediocre bunch of wannabe lads who are way too obsessed with another fanbase that they would rather see our club turn to shit. This is why we are mediocre, and why this club has never achieved anything Substantial. We are a joke

[GabeF1 @BlockchainGabe]

@fullback03 You’re so fucking obsessed with Arteta and his clan you’d rather your own team lose.

This is why we are a MEDIOCRE club, why we’re laughed at and questioned whether we’re a top 4 club.

This mindset that 70% of our fan base have is the reason we are laughed at like we are.

[GabeF1 @BlockchainGabe]

Disgusted to be a spurs fan today.

This is one of the many reasons we are a mediocre football club.

All these fan account pushing the narrative too. Sort it out. #COYS @SpursOfficial @LastWordOnSpurs @TheSpursExpress

[The Spurs Express @TheSpursExpress]

Bizarre set of circumstances and lots of talk about what Spurs fans really want to happen tonight. So here we go:

What is your preferred result?

[GabeF1 @BlockchainGabe]

The problem with our @SpursOfficial fans. We’re so obsessed with Arsenal, we’d rather our own team lost.

And that is single handedly the problem.

Honestly disgusted to associate myself with all you Yids wishing for City to beat us.

Let’s just focus on ourselves shall we?…

[Steve Will Do It @stevewilldoit]

Fuck it I’m giving a $10,000 watch to someone who likes and retweets and follows me . Will respond in 24 hours . Will ship u a Rolex next day on god.

[GabeF1 @BlockchainGabe]

@fastpitstop I’m sorry but you CANNOT gain time by exceeding track limits on the last corner. Especially in the wet.

For once the FIA have made a logical decision. One could argue that Landos fastest lap was compromised by his trip into the gravel trap.

That lap was impressive.

[GabeF1 @BlockchainGabe]

@fiagirly @karunchandhok @HillF1 I can confidently say, it is absolutely heartwarming to see the interaction you’re getting @fiagirly . After following you for a good few years now, you absolutely deserve this 😇

[GabeF1 @BlockchainGabe]

@Asymmetry_Fi Absolutely spot on.

It’s the mid term view that can easily cloud one’s judgement, when really, the long term can be so clear.

Long term I know where my fundamentals take me.

It’s this type of outlook I resonate with. Appreciate the effort you put in mate. 🤝