@jeffspross And that chance should be priced into the market as a risk premium on government debt in the form of higher interest rates. There is some evidence that this has started to happen in a small way, though it's hard to be sure because of so many confounding variables. (5/5)
@jeffspross The higher interest costs are as a percentage of the total budget, the more painful it is, politically, to bring them under control, and the more tempting, therefore, to monetize the debt. I don't think we'll ever get to such a catastrophic end. But the chance isn't zero. (4/n)
@asymmetricinfo@DamonLinker I'm mostly just saying: the right frame is "what might he want to do, how might he justify it legally, and how might courts respond to that" rather than "what does the black letter of the law say and what's the most reasonable way for courts to interpret it."
@DamonLinker@asymmetricinfo Those are the first two things that came to mind, but you could probably come up with more and better possibilities with time and more knowledge than I have. The point is: thinking about what the president could do if determined and aggressive is probably the right frame. (4/4)
@DamonLinker@asymmetricinfo Could you enact policies (via executive order?) that restricted mobility, or made more actions a basis for arrest? Something more drastic than "stop and frisk" but, presumably, less drastic than "shelter in place" orders such as obtained at times during COVID. (3/n)
@polanskydj@hamandcheese I mean, there's an element of trolling in the way I'm putting it, sure. But the real question isn't whether I think it or you think it, but whether Xi Jinping thinks it.
@hamandcheese "In the end, the key to avoiding the Thucydides Trap may be for the dominant power to delude itself into believing that surrender is victory.
Who could better achieve that goal than President Donald Trump?" (2/n)
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