BlueSpud208

[BlueSpud208 @BlueSpud208]

@umichvoter Exact same thing my forecast average has for the most part, except Dems are ahead in Texas as well. But gut says R’s win barely.

[BlueSpud208 @BlueSpud208]

Other data:

GCB: D+6.3

Trump Approval 38.7 - 58 (-19.3)

House Forecast Avg: 231 D - 204 R

D’s % chance to win 6 closest Senate seats:

MI: 68%
ME: 68%
OH: 60%
TX: 55%
AK: 54%
IA: 40%

[BlueSpud208 @BlueSpud208]

Forecast Average Update (by m.o.v):

AK: 0.3 D
IA: 3 R
ME: 2.7 D
MI: 3.5 D
OH: 1 D
TX: 0.3 D

Other Races

FL: 7.7 R
GA: 8.4 D
KS: 7.3 R
NC: 6.6 D
NE: 6.6 R
NH: 7.3 D
SC: 8 R

D’s path to majority:
48. MI
49. ME
50. OH
51. TX
52. AK

Again, not my rankings.

[BlueSpud208 @BlueSpud208]

@NickyScatz Right now, my forecast average has Cooper winning by around 7, and both Moody & Graham winning by around 8. Personally, I think Coopers margin stays around that. I think Moodys is closer to 10 and Graham’s is closer to 6. But, we shall see

[BlueSpud208 @BlueSpud208]

@OpenSourceZone When do you plan on updating next?

[BlueSpud208 @BlueSpud208]

@realPrestonHill Would you prefer non partisan top 2 jungle primary? Or some sort of system where it’s a jungle primary and top 4 advance only if 10% or greater and then have to get over 50% to win, if not top 2 go to runoff?

[BlueSpud208 @BlueSpud208]

@realPrestonHill The main difference. Trump was on the ballot. Also the turnout number is interesting

[BlueSpud208 @BlueSpud208]

@Socdem_Michael Meanwhile here it is for AK & Peltola:

Silver: 52%
Split Ticket: 52%
R2WH: 49%
VoteHub: 53%
Economist: 55%
FiftyPlusOne: 57%
DecisionDesk: 58%
ElectIndex: 45%

That puts her average at 53% and median also at 53%. Forecasters are more bearish and she is even underdog in 2!

[BlueSpud208 @BlueSpud208]

@Socdem_Michael The top models that I track give Talarico the following chance to win:

Silver: 62%
Split Ticket: 61%
R2WH: 68%
VoteHub: 51%
Economist: 50%
FiftyPlusOne: 55%
Decision Desk: 55%
ElectIndex 52%

The average is 57% and the median is 55%. Only one forecaster has Paxton ahead (econ)

[BlueSpud208 @BlueSpud208]

@PluralVoteOrg when do you plan on coming out with your next forecast updates?

[BlueSpud208 @BlueSpud208]

@CountyLineFcst when do you think you’ll update your forecast?

[BlueSpud208 @BlueSpud208]

@OpenSourceZone how often do you plan to update your senate forecast?

[BlueSpud208 @BlueSpud208]

@ZFlawles1s R: Jackson wins Ga Gov by 3+

D: D’s win 52+ senate seats and KS & SC are within 5

[BlueSpud208 @BlueSpud208]

@StatisticUrban Like they say, throw em in the average and put em in the forecast!

[BlueSpud208 @BlueSpud208]

@realPrestonHill Throw em in the average and put em in the forecast!

[BlueSpud208 @BlueSpud208]

@StatisticUrban @realPrestonHill My numbers continue to show that it’s the Dems best opportunity for their 50th seat. In fact, my forecast average has him projected to win by 1.6 right now!

[BlueSpud208 @BlueSpud208]

@ElliscbIV @electionsjoe How about Beto?

[BlueSpud208 @BlueSpud208]

@realPrestonHill My forecast average has it at R+7/8 right now. But, that is before all of the forecasts were fully factoring in her and there is any polling.

[BlueSpud208 @BlueSpud208]

@BeshearStan Right now, my forecast average had this race close to Kansas. But, hard to tell at this point.

[BlueSpud208 @BlueSpud208]

@SpecialPuppy1 @realPrestonHill My forecast average has it at double that right now. Projected around 8/9. I’m pretty comfortable with saying that is way more likely to be the final margin.