Plural Vote

Political Statistician @Columbia. Founder of Plural Vote. Election forecasts featured by Newsweek, Yahoo Finance, MSN; "You've got talent" - Dr. @LarrySabato.

[Plural Vote @PluralVoteOrg]

A meaningful milestone for Plural Vote.

Grateful to see Dr. Larry Sabato @LarrySabato, who just had a spectacular appearance on MS NOW, share our approval rating analysis with his X audience. The graphic mentioned Trump's record lows in approval rating, a theme that Dr. Sabato emphasized on his news appearance.

Since 2017, Plural Vote has been focused on building transparent, data-driven tools for understanding elections — from forecasting models to statistical simulations and public-facing visualizations.

Dr. Sabato and the University of Virginia Center for Politics have set a remarkable standard for rigorous election analysis and public political education. It is an honor to have our work recognized by someone who has shaped the field for decades.

Thank you, Dr. Sabato, for supporting independent election analysis and the next generation of political data journalism.

More to come.

[Plural Vote @PluralVoteOrg]

By the way, I just ordered your latest book, Campaign of Chaos: Trump, Biden, Harris, and the 2024 American Election. I’m very much looking forward to reading it and adding it prominently to my personal library. I follow your media appearances closely as well—your election analysis has long been a valuable reference point for me.

[Plural Vote @PluralVoteOrg]

Democrats are gaining on the generic ballot—and the House outlook is moving with them.

Generic ballot: D +5.48
↗ +0.22 in 1 week
↗ +0.59 in 1 month
House: 74.1% D (+1.3 / +3.6)
Senate: 50.1% R (−1.7 / −4.5)
Early signs of a Trump backlash?

@LarrySabato, I’d value your read.

[Plural Vote @PluralVoteOrg]

That’s incredibly kind of you, Larry. Being compared to @gelliottmorris and a forecasting tradition associated with The Economist is high praise, especially coming from someone of your stature in election analysis (America's premier election expert).

I’m very grateful for your continued support of Plural Vote over the years. You’ve never been under any obligation to engage with or share my work, which makes your encouragement mean even more. Thank you.

[Plural Vote @PluralVoteOrg]

NEW — Plural Vote Trump Approval Tracker

Trump’s approval rating remains deeply underwater nationally:

🔴 Approve: 41.2%
🔵 Disapprove: 56.1%
📉 Net approval: −14.9
Since our last update: essentially unchanged.
Over the past 30 days, net approval has slipped 0.7 points. Over the past 7 days, however, it improved 2.8 points.

The broader trend remains substantially more negative than at the start of the series.

Source: Decision Desk HQ polling database
Model: LOESS-smoothed polling averages

📊 @PluralVoteOrg

[Plural Vote @PluralVoteOrg]

Span (smoothing) will be changed from .35 to .25, defensible for polling averages (more sensitive while still not over-reacing to noise).

[Plural Vote @PluralVoteOrg]

📊 PLURAL VOTE MIDTERM UPDATE #ElectionTwitter #Polling #Polls #Election2026

Democrats lead the generic ballot by 5.28 points—down 0.01 from our last graphic, but up 0.02 from one week and one month ago.

House: D 72.94% (−0.06 since last graphic; +0.2 vs. 1 week ago)
Senate: R 51.66% (+0.07; −0.2)
LOESS-smoothed DDHQ data.

[Plural Vote @PluralVoteOrg]

Note: After this graphic posted, we will be adjusting our LOESS span to a more sensitive yet recommended value, which will result in different values for our forthcoming forecast updates.

[Plural Vote @PluralVoteOrg]

@IAPolls2022 Our model has Democrats up by 0.7 points.

[Steve Rattner @SteveRattner]

Over 5 million low-income Americans — including at least 1.5 million children — have lost access to food assistance due to Trump's SNAP cuts last year.

Most of the hardest hit states are traditionally Republican, resulting in growing hunger crises in states like Arizona.

[Plural Vote @PluralVoteOrg]

@IAPolls2022 @zogbystrategies This D+11 poll would mean that Democrats have a nearly 95% probability of winning the election.

[Larry Sabato @LarrySabato]

Think you know politics? Think again. In The Lion’s Den, longtime friend Frank Atkinson takes readers inside a world of ambition, loyalty, betrayal, & choices that reverberate from a university campus to the halls of national power. A great late-summer read—and a terrific gift for the political junkie in your life. On sale today on Amazon. More at https://t.co/VjjdEDEPCI.

[Plural Vote @PluralVoteOrg]

@PpollingNumbers Our model has this as unlikely to happen, based primarily on PVI.

[Plural Vote @PluralVoteOrg]

@LarrySabato Here is the same graphic normalized by detained population, representing a normalized rate of over 3x Biden:

(Though responsibility would still be with the administration for placing those in harm's way if there is an increased health risk due to substandard medical care)

[Plural Vote @PluralVoteOrg]

ICE detainee deaths have accelerated under Trump. Feedback? @LarrySabato

Our analysis of ICE detainee death reports shows:

🔴 Trump: 55 deaths in the first comparable period
🔵 Biden: 6 deaths
That is 817% higher — more than 9 times as many reported deaths.

This comes amid long-standing concerns over conditions inside immigration detention. The ACLU and other human rights organizations have documented failures in medical care, delayed treatment, and preventable harm in ICE detention facilities.

A government that detains people has a responsibility to keep them safe.

#Immigration #ICE #Trump #Election2026 #Politics #HumanRights #Accountability

[Plural Vote @PluralVoteOrg]

"US: Deaths in ICE Custody Surge Under Trump
Inadequate Medical Care, Oversight, Public Reporting"

https://t.co/SdV1As8XOh

[Plural Vote @PluralVoteOrg]

https://t.co/b6zXQakkQi