BoNixStats

Lies, damned lies, and statistics

Nixxposting

[BoNixStats @BoNixStats]

So how'd Bo do vs SEA?

In 2025-26, SEA held 15 QBs to ≤6 YPA in 26 games. 3/6 losses came in such games.

Bo had 3.96 YPA, 0 turnovers, and +0.22 EPA/play while trailing (highest!).

Stafford & Mariota also won, w/ ≤1 turnover and never trailing.

Right game plan. W.

[BoNixStats @BoNixStats]

Two keys to win these games:
1. be efficient while trailing
2. don't turn the ball over

Win pct for ≤6 since 2000: 28%
With ≥0.2 epa/play trailing: 60%
With 0 QB turnovers: 48%
With both: 66%

Bo Nix is great in both.
(And there's some familiar names at the top here...)

[BoNixStats @BoNixStats]

Two keys to win these games:
1. be efficient while trailing
2. don't turn the ball over

Win pct for ≤6 since 2000: 28%
With ≥0.2 epa/play trailing: 60%
With 0 QB turnovers: 48%
With both: 66%

Bo Nix is great in both.
(And there's some familiar names at the top here...)

[Doug Clawson @doug_clawson]

Bo Nix has the best career record in NFL history in games with 6.0 yds/att or less (13-3, .813 win pct).

All other active QBs have a .283 win pct in starts with 6.0 yds/att or less

[BoNixStats @BoNixStats]

Tied the best record, one of 3 teams to go 4-2 against such schedules.

The Broncos are the only team to do so AND win against the previous Superbowl champions.

[BoNixStats @BoNixStats]

Just a reminder: 5/6 of the Broncos first 6 games are against playoff teams. That's only happened 20 times in the SB era.

4-2 is the best record against such schedules.

With 2 wins, the Broncos are already tied for the 6th best result.

[BoNixStats @BoNixStats]

He's pulling some wild shit to get this too. Last year made some sense, start throwing long and increase efficiency. This year, it's just all short throws.

[BoNixStats @BoNixStats]

Bo Nix still has funny stats this year. Highly efficient while trailing, very much not while leading or tied.

[BoNixStats @BoNixStats]

Pretty funny when people say Bo can't win w/o a run game.

Since 2025, when QBs get 60-80 yards from non-QB runs:
Win pct - 35%
ANY/A - 5.9
QBR - 53.3

Bo:
Win pct - 83% (last Sun was the 1st loss)
ANY/A - 6.2
QBR - 57.6

Played below avg. Can't win 'em all.

[BoNixStats @BoNixStats]

Here's the graph for the 2018-2026 period, the same as the original post.

[BoNixStats @BoNixStats]

I was inspired.

This is the impact of judgement penalties since the beginning of last season.

So when Broncos fans say that everyone, including us, gets screwed by flags, we're right... for our games. And we get screwed more.

[Stick to the Model @StickToTheModel]

Every fanbase swears the refs screw them

Here's every flag in crunch time since 2018

Are you getting robbed or getting bailed out?

[BoNixStats @BoNixStats]

@ndjomo76 Different era of football. From 2015-2026 so far, on avg teams were in position for a 4QC 34% of the time.

During that period, Brady was in position 30%, Brees 35%, Mahomes 36%, Stafford 40%.

Bo's at ~38%. He converts them so much that it shows up in wins more.

[Scott Kacsmar @ScottKacsmar]

Record when trailing in the last 8:00:

Bo Nix: 7-12 (.368)
Caleb Williams: 9-20 (.310)
Joe Burrow: 1-34 (.029)

Patrick Mahomes: 17-35 (.327)
Josh Allen: 15-42 (.263)
Lamar Jackson: 11-33 (.250)

https://t.co/jiYe7jvaq3

[Scott Kacsmar @ScottKacsmar]

Every active starter's 4QC/GWD records

[BoNixStats @BoNixStats]

*Now 28.2% of 39 games.

And by my count, that means Bo Nix is tied for the fastest to reach 10 reg season 4th qtr comebacks:
T-1 - Bo Nix
T-1 - Jay Schroeder
3 - Jake Plummer
T-4 - John Elway
T-4 - Derek Carr
T-4 - Justin Herbert

[BoNixStats @BoNixStats]

26.3% of Bo Nix's 38 games in the NFL have been 4th qtr comebacks.

By my count, that means the fastest QBs to reach 10 total 4th qtr comebacks are:
T-1 - Bo Nix
T-1 - Marc Bulger
3 - Jake Plummer
T-4 - Justin Herbert
T-4 - Jay Schroeder
6 - John Elway

[BoNixStats @BoNixStats]

Just a reminder: 5/6 of the Broncos first 6 games are against playoff teams. That's only happened 20 times in the SB era.

4-2 is the best record against such schedules.

With 2 wins, the Broncos are already tied for the 6th best result.

[BoNixStats @BoNixStats]

8

[BoNixStats @BoNixStats]

Bo Nix has 7 straight comeback wins where the Broncos were down by one score in the 4th and he had the ball.

This is the 4th-longest streak since 2000, and the longest active streak.

2 more wins ties the 9-game record since 2000 (Manning, Mahomes, Cousins).

[NFL Researcher @NFL_Researcher]

Bo Nix since 2025 (QB Rank)...

🔸7 fourth qtr comebacks (1st)
🔸9 game-winning drives (1st)
🔸20 TD when trailing by 1 score (1st)
🔸12 TD in 4th quarter (T-3rd)
🔸13 TD on 3rd/4th down (4th)
🔸5 TD on 3rd down in 4th qtr (T-1st)

[BoNixStats @BoNixStats]

26.3% of Bo Nix's 38 games in the NFL have been 4th qtr comebacks.

By my count, that means the fastest QBs to reach 10 total 4th qtr comebacks are:
T-1 - Bo Nix
T-1 - Marc Bulger
3 - Jake Plummer
T-4 - Justin Herbert
T-4 - Jay Schroeder
6 - John Elway

[BoNixStats @BoNixStats]

Bo Nix has 7 straight comeback wins where the Broncos were down by one score in the 4th and he had the ball.

This is the 4th-longest streak since 2000, and the longest active streak.

2 more wins ties the 9-game record since 2000 (Manning, Mahomes, Cousins).

[BoNixStats @BoNixStats]

So with Bo Nix having the highest percentage of second reads, I got curious how effective they were.

They were great, netting +0.78 epa/attempt while first reads only got +0.21.

Lawrence had the 2nd highest pct, but got -0.19 epa/play on them.

[SFdata9ers🏈📊 @sfdata9ers]

QB Read Distribution from Week 2

Added time to throw to the graphic. Week 1 numbers NOT included.

Data charted by @FTNFantasy

[BoNixStats @BoNixStats]

47 air yards by the way, tied for the longest completed pass by air yards so far this season.

(And it'd be tied for 13th longest last season.)

[Bryce 🎸 @MileHighMims]

Here’s THE Bo Nix throw to highlight from Sunday lol

[BoNixStats @BoNixStats]

@StickToTheModel I always like where Bo ends up on these graphs cause his efficiency drops off a cliff as soon as the game is tied.

Here's a similar graph only for when trailing by one score in the 4th, which I think does a better job of separating out the truly clutch players.