Bob Z., Ph.D.💎

EV, tech & economic developments & analyses.
Warn public of tech's perils in modern world.
MIT Ph.D., Former Professor of E.E.
Public transportation advocate.

[Bob Z., Ph.D.💎 @BobZ3254]

Here is the CNEVPost story about Shenlan SL03 discount.
https://t.co/DDIJ6ooeRS

[CnEVPost @CnEVPost]

Changan's EV brand Shenlan offers up to $6,030 discount on vehicle purchases
https://t.co/KbuJKSUxL9

[Bob Z., Ph.D.💎 @BobZ3254]

The EV Price War in China updates:

VW ID Series:
MSRPs 179.9K RMB+, Discount 40K (-22%)

Shenlan SL03:
MSRPs 179.8K RMB+, Discount 42K (-23%)

Comment: VW, Shenlan and their dealers together are able to cut prices more than Tesla.
https://t.co/pQggDEzFXO
https://t.co/T0mQe7dd7z

[Bob Z., Ph.D.💎 @BobZ3254]

The EV Price War in China updates:

Toyota bZ4X:
MSRP 199.8K yuan, discount up to 60K yuan (-30%)

Nissan Ariya:
MSRP 284.8K yuan, price cut 60K yuan (-21%)

Comment: Toyota, Nissan and their dealers together are able to cut prices even more than Tesla.
https://t.co/H0f0Xa6oLt

[Bob Z., Ph.D.💎 @BobZ3254]

Very few analysts have realized that Tesla is not competing against other OEMs, but against (other OEMs + their dealers).

In a price war, (other OEMs + their dealers) together often are able to cut prices even more than Tesla.

[Bob Z., Ph.D.💎 @BobZ3254]

@FallVIIRiseVIII @vomnox Tesla investors have been made to believe it is a battle between bulls and bears. $tsla's short interest has rarely risen above 3%; big price drop in $tsla is always due to dump by hedge funds who bought low and sell high.

$tsla will soon drop below $150 if my thesis is correct.

[Bob Z., Ph.D.💎 @BobZ3254]

Tesla's weekly insurance registrations in China for 20-26 Feb:

10,705.

Comment: Despite increase from 5,913 the week before, Feb deliveries will still be <35K. IMO, this weekly increase is likely a deceptive one-time event produced by Tesla timed with its 1 Mar Investor Day.

[Bob Z., Ph.D.💎 @BobZ3254]

@vomnox @FallVIIRiseVIII Estimating how many orders a price cut generates is not an exact science; being off by 5-10K is normal.

My thesis is that dump should have been complete by 7 Mar. $tsla was $208 on 28 Feb and closed at $187.71 on 7 Mar, which has vindicated my thesis.

[Bob Z., Ph.D.💎 @BobZ3254]

@galthen @GordonJohnson19 @Lebeaucarnews @chickengenius @TaylorOgan @fly4dat @SawyerMerritt The cherries I am picking - markets where Tesla faced or is facing real competitions - are getting more and more.

I have data to show Tesla's demand is faltering in the UK, France, Norway now too. I will provide updates later. Denmark is truly a cherry that you picked.

[Bob Z., Ph.D.💎 @BobZ3254]

Tesla's growth was only made possible because chip shortage created an abnormal sellers' market.

Wherever there are real competitions, Tesla's growth falters.

Data Point #4: South Korea, where in 2022 Tesla's growth was -18.3% YoY, crushed by Hyundai-Kia.

Pls retweet. Thx.

[Bob Z., Ph.D.💎 @BobZ3254]

@ajverharen @GordonJohnson19 @Lebeaucarnews @chickengenius @TaylorOgan @fly4dat @SawyerMerritt CT will be a flop for certain even in the US, not to mention it does not have any market outside the US. M2 will be dead on arrival too, for mass-market is already crowded and is dominated by Chinese EV makers such as BYD, Wuling, MG, GWM, etc.

[Bob Z., Ph.D.💎 @BobZ3254]

@Ac64940893 @GordonJohnson19 @Lebeaucarnews @chickengenius @TaylorOgan @fly4dat @SawyerMerritt Be more specific please.

[Bob Z., Ph.D.💎 @BobZ3254]

@TriggerRev @GordonJohnson19 @Lebeaucarnews @chickengenius @TaylorOgan @fly4dat @SawyerMerritt The market is not as forgiving as you want to believe. Tesla has initiated a price war that has put such startup EV makers as Xpeng's and Lucide's survivals in doubt. Similarly, competitions from BYD, Hyundai-Kia, VW and BMW will soon put Tesla's survival in doubt.

[Bob Z., Ph.D.💎 @BobZ3254]

@XieQiong54 @GordonJohnson19 @Lebeaucarnews @chickengenius @TaylorOgan @fly4dat @SawyerMerritt I provided the growth data of Mercedes, BMW and VW to show what you said is not true. It is true that the Japanese only buy their own products, but not the Korean.

[Bob Z., Ph.D.💎 @BobZ3254]

@iSunrise007 @GordonJohnson19 @Lebeaucarnews @chickengenius @TaylorOgan @fly4dat @SawyerMerritt Tesla's ability to introduce cheaper models is doubtful. The mass-market is already saturated with many compelling offerings from Chinese EV makers, noticeably MG 4, BYD Atto 3 & Dolphin, Wuling Air EV, etc.

[Bob Z., Ph.D.💎 @BobZ3254]

@chansoo @GordonJohnson19 @Lebeaucarnews @chickengenius @TaylorOgan @fly4dat @SawyerMerritt I mean Tesla's EV sales falter in front of competitions.

[Bob Z., Ph.D.💎 @BobZ3254]

@DrewAdamTepper This is another advantage OEMs like Toyota have over Tesla. Because EV sales only represent a small percentage of their total sales, they can afford to sell EVs at deep discounts without adversely affecting their overall profit margin, while Tesla just cannot.

[Bob Z., Ph.D.💎 @BobZ3254]

@ap5151ap @GordonJohnson19 @Lebeaucarnews @chickengenius @TaylorOgan @fly4dat @SawyerMerritt I provided the growth data for Mercedes, BMW and VW to show South Koreans are not against foreign brands. In 2022, Mercedes, BMW and VW were all able to grow, unlike Tesla had a big negative growth.

[Bob Z., Ph.D.💎 @BobZ3254]

@HoardinSats @GordonJohnson19 @Lebeaucarnews @chickengenius @TaylorOgan @fly4dat @SawyerMerritt @RemindMe_OfThis Because Tesla has direct sales, it is competing against other OEMs + their dealers.

When comparing gross margin, we should compare Tesla against other OEMs + their dealers.

In Q4'22, Tesla's gross margin was 6% below OEMs + Dealerships industry average.
https://t.co/ZvzWcfvI8z

[Bob Z., Ph.D.💎 @BobZ3254]

In Q4'22, gross margin per new car sold:

Auto & Truck Manufacturers Industry Average = 18.39%

AutoNation = 11.48%

(OEMs + Dealerships) Industry Average Est. = 29.87%

Tesla = 23.76%
https://t.co/5YzMBvSeNz

[Bob Z., Ph.D.💎 @BobZ3254]

@ZaphodBobbybrox @GordonJohnson19 @Lebeaucarnews @chickengenius @TaylorOgan @fly4dat @SawyerMerritt I am talking about Tesla's growth story here. Of cause all the data points I put together center around Tesla.

[Bob Z., Ph.D.💎 @BobZ3254]

@DrewAdamTepper Cutting prices inevitably cuts profit margin.

Because Tesla has direct sales, it is competing against other OEMs + their dealers.

In a price war, other OEMs + their dealers together often have more rooms to cut prices than Tesla.
https://t.co/T0mQe7dd7z

[Bob Z., Ph.D.💎 @BobZ3254]

The EV Price War in China updates:

Toyota bZ4X:
MSRP 199.8K yuan, discount up to 60K yuan (-30%)

Nissan Ariya:
MSRP 284.8K yuan, price cut 60K yuan (-21%)

Comment: Toyota, Nissan and their dealers together are able to cut prices even more than Tesla.
https://t.co/H0f0Xa6oLt

[Bob Z., Ph.D.💎 @BobZ3254]

@VALUBULL28 @GordonJohnson19 @Lebeaucarnews @chickengenius @TaylorOgan @fly4dat @SawyerMerritt $tsla bulls failed to understand that because Tesla has direct sales, Tesla is not competing against other OEMs, but (other OEMs + their dealers).

In a price war, other OEMs + their dealers together often have more rooms to cut prices than Tesla has.
https://t.co/T0mQe7dd7z

[Bob Z., Ph.D.💎 @BobZ3254]

The EV Price War in China updates:

Toyota bZ4X:
MSRP 199.8K yuan, discount up to 60K yuan (-30%)

Nissan Ariya:
MSRP 284.8K yuan, price cut 60K yuan (-21%)

Comment: Toyota, Nissan and their dealers together are able to cut prices even more than Tesla.
https://t.co/H0f0Xa6oLt

[Bob Z., Ph.D.💎 @BobZ3254]

@Sublux8tor @GordonJohnson19 @Lebeaucarnews @chickengenius @TaylorOgan @fly4dat @SawyerMerritt You just don't get it. I am talking about Tesla's unit growth YoY or QoQ, not growth or loss in market share.

[Bob Z., Ph.D.💎 @BobZ3254]

@timpierotti1 @GordonJohnson19 @Lebeaucarnews @chickengenius @TaylorOgan @fly4dat @SawyerMerritt Of cause not. Tesla is having troubles finding enough demands to absorb productions from its existing 4 giga factories. To grow more capacity in a demand-constrained market is suicidal.