.@Figure@mcagney I saw that the flex loans are being phased out on figure markets, are there plans to allow you to take a loan out on FGRS holdings through open in the near future?
Big Short investor Steve Eisman says the AI labs know they have no moats and are manufacturing a crisis to get regulation that hands them a duopoly
"I think this is all nonsense."
[ You think it's all nonsense? ]
"All nonsense. I think that there's something else completely going on here. ... What I think is happening is that token maxing is over. The open weight models are taking big market share. I think these companies are very nervous. They realize that there are no moats around their business whatsoever, and they're trying to manufacture a crisis that will create regulation, and that they think they can then manipulate to create the moats, to create the duopoly that they want."
[ Wow. ]
"That's what I think is going on."
"Honestly, I think this whole Terminator thing is garbage. That's for sure."
Allow me to interpret what’s happening.
Anthropic is being audited.
Anthropic desires to file an S-1, as they would like to go public. Therefore they need an audit. And by “they”, I mean the VC’s who invested in them. So “they” can exit their position and pass the bag to firemen, nurses, teachers and policemen.
How does this go from the VC’s to the working man and woman? Because the size of the IPO will automatically qualify Anthropic for the Fortune 500 and the Dow Jones 100. Therefore, every working person with a 401k or pension will end up owning a little bit of Anthropic in their mutual funds. Teachers hold the bag, VC’s take the cash. Thank you, come again.
Now back to the audit. The audit required is a PCAOB audit, Public Company Accounting Oversight Board. This audit is what all public companies must comply with be on the stock market. Revenue recognition, expense classification, depreciation, related party transactions, etc. It’s there for consumer protection.
This audit is TOUGH. It is INVASIVE. There is no way to lie your way through it. Any company that passes a PCAOB audit automatically earns my trust on finances.
How do I know? Because I’ve been through it before. @ChangRobotics is 2 year PCAOB audited and currently underway for a 3 year audit. It’s brutal. The same as showing up as the valedictorian to your high school graduation, except you’re naked, and you have to walk on stage and deliver the speech. It’s rough. And I know many incredible founders that can’t pass one.
Now, why would Anthropic be leaking all kind of weird statements lately about “self pacing” a slow down on AI (e.g. they are WAY behind on revenue), and profitable if they didn’t have expenses (e.g. we just learned for the first time what our expenses are, because we’re being audited).
Because they were claiming NVIDIA discounts and Microsoft cloud credits as revenue. Because they had no clue what their expenses were, or why it even mattered. Because they had unlimited investor capital and their job was to burn it to make an LLM. Well, they did a great job with that!
That’s the same as my wife coming home with Bed Bath and Beyond coupons and telling me it’s her paycheck. Ummm, not the same, sweetheart.
So by now hopefully you can see that Anthropic is in a PCAOB audit right now, in order to file an S-1 and go public, and pass the bag to teachers so the VC’s get profits. And hopefully that explains their “crazy” behavior.
In reality you can be grateful to KPMG, PWC, or whoever is auditing Anthropic, because it’s the first time Dario learned that:
1) we are not profitable
2) expenses matter
3) coupons are not revenue
4) we have no clue how to be “profitable”
5) growth is hard when revenue numbers are in an audit and not a power point
-your neighborhood engineer
I have conducted an audit of Anthropic's finances.
What I have found is so shocking that I am calling for a Congressional investigation.
Anthropic is not just seeking regulatory capture.
It has built a regulatory capture machine that cannot be turned off.
Structural financial incentives make it impossible for Anthropic -- I call it the Anthropic Network -- to turn off its own AI doom cycle.
It starts with METR.
Dario Amodei proposes "third-party evaluators" to assess the risk of Anthropic's models.
He proposes METR for this purpose.
But METR is financially dependent on the Anthropic's success -- specifically, on the explosive growth of more than $7 billion dollars in Anthropic stock.
Dustin Moskovitz invested this stock into Good Ventures Foundation, where it represents the majority of that organization's portfolio.
And GVF is the overwhelming funder of the entire Anthropic Network ecosystem.
This stock was worth $500 million early last year.
It is worth more than $7.7 billion just ~16 months later.
METR -- and all of those building a career its parent organizations -- cannot afford to disrupt that growth.
Because if Anthropic goes under, many of the organizations that fund METR go under as well.
But if Anthropic succeeds, METR and its parent organizations become more richly financed to regulate AI -- something those at METR want very much.
The "third-party evaluator" is not "third-party" at all.
The evaluator is on Anthropic's payroll.
If this were the end of it, that's bad.
But that isn't all.
The same organizations that fund METR also fund the many organizations, such as the Tarbell Center, that promote AI Doom.
The Tarbell Center publishes AI Doom articles in The Verge, Science, LA Times, The Dispatch, TIME, and others.
They are selling the problem, and then selling the solution to the problem -- from the same money pile: Anthropic's.
All of these organizations are financially dependent on the same exploding $7 billion money pile.
As Anthropic grows more and more powerful, its AI Doom Machine grows better and better financed -- louder and louder.
Meanwhile, the regulatory regime seeded in METR grows larger to solve the increasingly loud -- now hysterical -- problem of AI Doom that the Anthropic Network itself created.
From this standpoint, as Anthropic becomes more powerful, AI might be getting scarier, sure -- but the positive feedback loop also becomes more deafening -- independent of objective facts.
This itself is an objective fact.
The deafening AI Doom is part of an business model, that, as it expands, so too does the AI Doom messaging -- there is simply more money to do it.
But the problem also goes in the other direction:
If Anthropic dies, the Regulatory Regime and the AI Doom Machine are crippled or die.
Neither METR nor Tarbell nor the other organizations in the Anthropic Network can allow that to happen.
Hence, neither METR or the AI Doom Machine can be trusted to provide independent assessments of Anthropic's models or AI more broadly.
They simply are not organizations independent of Anthropic.
And Anthropic cannot detach itself from METR or Tarbell or countless other safety orgs (not shown here), either, because they drive hype for the models and the possibility of eventual regulatory capture, and Anthropic will not give that up willingly.
What's more, the people at all of these organizations are all the same ecosystem, the same community. They just shuffle between organizations.
The Anthropic Network is therefore, so long as it is successful, locked into a self-amplifying feedback loop inside an ideological monoculture.
And that feedback loop is winning.
That's what Jacob Coxon is.
China is keeping messaging tight. That is why optimism for AI is so high in China.
America has Anthropic: a massive company pushing anti-AI propaganda at a state level.
Anthropic will either create hysteria until American AI slows down and China wins, or it will create fractures throughout American society with severe political consequences.
Ironically, because of the structural financial incentives underpinning the Anthropic Network, it has become the same kind of self-amplifying virus that it fantasizes AI to become in the future -- while hiding its tracks just as carefully.
It is the mirror of the same AI virus that it hypothesizes to consume America.
Anthropic's business model, models itself after the very thing it claims to fear.
Except Anthropic's ideology infects humans, not computers.
Congress must investigate.
Evidence and Github in next post.
Then some supplementary figures.
In 1979, a talk show host looked at one of the most influential economists alive and told him, on live television, that capitalism ran on greed.
Milton Friedman had won the Nobel Prize in Economics three years earlier, in 1976, for his work on monetary theory and consumption analysis.
Phil Donahue, host of the highest-rated daytime talk show in America, asked him directly whether the concentration of power and profit under capitalism had ever given him a moment of doubt.
Friedman didn't pause before answering. "Well, first of all, tell me, is there some society you know that doesn't run on greed? You think Russia doesn't run on greed? You think China doesn't run on greed?"
He kept going, arguing that only capitalist societies built on voluntary exchange had ever lifted large numbers of people out of poverty, while every attempt to replace self-interest with central planning had made things worse.
Donahue tried one more angle, asking who would organize a fairer society if not government. Friedman's answer to that question is still being clipped and argued over online more than four decades later.
Their exchange lasted less than two minutes inside a much longer interview about the Great Depression, auto bailouts, and price controls, and it's become one of the most replayed moments in the history of televised economics.
Was Friedman right that every system runs on self-interest whether we admit it or not, or did he dodge the real question about inequality? Say which side you land on in the comments, then watch the full exchange below.
The entire city of San Francisco is spooked and on edge due to AI safety shit, it’s insane how much it’s bleeding into my everyday life. Like I was at my bus stop and I notice a guy looking really stressed out so I said hey, are you worried about misaligned AI too? He took out an AirPod and said “what?” So I said you know stuff like agent swarms, AI escaping RL sandboxes, existential risk. He paused his Barstool podcast and said “sorry, what? What are you talking about?” Just the mention of this stuff made him too anxious to speak, I think. So I said I know man, what?! is my reaction to all this too, and then asked him what his p(doom) is. He then said “dude is this some gay thing or something because I have no fucking clue what you’re asking me” then he got on the bus. People are not handling all this news well. It’s really affecting us. All of us.
Today we rang the @Nasdaq Opening Bell to celebrate a year as a public company.
Since 2018, we’ve been focused on bringing the capital markets on-chain to replace legacy friction with a transparent, ledger-based system that makes borrowing and investing faster, cheaper, and more efficient for everyone.
Our momentum validates this approach: we’ve delivered 100%+ year-over-year volume growth in every quarter since our IPO through a capital-light marketplace that connects originators with capital markets investors.
Thank you to the team, our investors, and the 480+ partners across our ecosystem driving this progress with us.
📷: Nasdaq, Inc./ Vanja Savic
The thing is Michigan has built up alot of karma by doing little things the right way and acting honorably on and off the field. That kind of stuff gets rewarded