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Big Short investor Steve Eisman says the AI labs know they have no moats and are manufacturing a crisis to get regulation that hands them a duopoly
"I think this is all nonsense."
[ You think it's all nonsense? ]
"All nonsense. I think that there's something else completely going on here. ... What I think is happening is that token maxing is over. The open weight models are taking big market share. I think these companies are very nervous. They realize that there are no moats around their business whatsoever, and they're trying to manufacture a crisis that will create regulation, and that they think they can then manipulate to create the moats, to create the duopoly that they want."
[ Wow. ]
"That's what I think is going on."
"Honestly, I think this whole Terminator thing is garbage. That's for sure."
GE Vernova CEO Scott Strazik says if US data centers slow down they just get built in Calgary on cheap natural gas
[ Joe: If things slow down even more, you're not worried about that from GE's perspective? ]
"Well, I would say the question is less whether it slows down and more where does it get built. You know, at the moment, if we're debating between whether it's Texas or Ohio, that's one debate, but it doesn't have to be in the US. It can get built in Calgary. There's a lot of inexpensive natural gas there."
"So I think at the end of the day, this infrastructure is going to be built. The real question is where."
[ Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, the day before ]
"We certainly don't want this infrastructure going to places outside the US, which is what will naturally happen because the demand for compute is there."
Dan Niles says Goldman's $300 billion Anthropic forecast for 2030 is Cisco in 2000 all over again
[ Charles: A lot of people are holding on to a lot of great tech names that fundamentally look like they should be screaming buys ]
"No, they're not. They're not screaming buys. That's the point. When you have the growth rate slowing like this... Anthropic, right? And we just walked through it. 145%, 45%, 25%. We don't know what the profitability is, right?"
[ Charles: Is it reasonable to expect a company to go from 0 to $50 billion in six months and keep that kind of a pace? ]
"Well, Charles, the problem is when you have people at Goldman Sachs putting out these forecasts of it's going to be $300 billion out in 2030, I go, this is like Cisco in 2000 saying we're going to grow sustainably at 30 to 50% for the next several years."
"You can't, when your business is accelerating, say, hey, look at my growth rate, and then when it's decelerating, oh, don't look at that, it had to slow down. You can't do that."
Max Levchin recalls an investor asking what PayPal would do about chargebacks, and a year later fraud was costing it $10 million a month
"They're like, 'Oh, you have no idea what that means, do you?'"
Dan Niles says Goldman's $300 billion Anthropic forecast for 2030 is Cisco in 2000 all over again
[ Charles: A lot of people are holding on to a lot of great tech names that fundamentally look like they should be screaming buys ]
"No, they're not. They're not screaming buys. That's the point. When you have the growth rate slowing like this... Anthropic, right? And we just walked through it. 145%, 45%, 25%. We don't know what the profitability is, right?"
[ Charles: Is it reasonable to expect a company to go from 0 to $50 billion in six months and keep that kind of a pace? ]
"Well, Charles, the problem is when you have people at Goldman Sachs putting out these forecasts of it's going to be $300 billion out in 2030, I go, this is like Cisco in 2000 saying we're going to grow sustainably at 30 to 50% for the next several years."
"You can't, when your business is accelerating, say, hey, look at my growth rate, and then when it's decelerating, oh, don't look at that, it had to slow down. You can't do that."
CoreWeave CEO Mike Intrator says he's canceled his 10b5 stock sale plan, asked on air about $3.3 billion of founder selling since the $CRWV IPO
"So this is going to be the first time I've said this. I've canceled my 10b5."
CoreWeave CEO Mike Intrator says when high yield got expensive he raised $9 billion in prepayments and deposits instead
[ Jim: You indicated there's another kind of debt to the company that actually is basically trading at par. ]
"That is correct. Our asset level debt has basically been rock solid through this entire thing."
"We're about to launch another asset level debt in the next week or two that has already been rated high investment grade. You know, we suspect that that will be underwritten in the market at a 7 to a 7.5% interest."
"You saw that in our earnings when I said, okay, high yield debt is getting expensive, we'll go to prepayments, which we have done in the past, and we raised $9 billion worth of prepayments and deposits."
Scott Galloway says a normal board would put Jensen Huang on leave until the independent counsel reports back, and Nvidia is keeping him on as CEO
"Now here's the issue from a governance standpoint. It was very interesting today. They said he's going to continue to operate as CEO and they've hired a special counsel to investigate it."
"Typically on a board, what you would do in anything of this gravity, you would ask him to take a leave of absence until you got the report back from the independent counsel."
"The board is human. And I did some research on the board today. And it's a group of what I'll call talented, accomplished executives, but not what you would typically see on the board of the most valuable company in the world."
[ Kara: I don't know one. They're mid level. ]
OpenAI chairman Bret Taylor says we've already passed AGI as most people would have defined it three years ago
"Three years ago, if I asked you to define AGI, you probably would have defined something that we've passed already."
CoreWeave CEO Mike Intrator says when high yield got expensive he raised $9 billion in prepayments and deposits instead
[ Jim: You indicated there's another kind of debt to the company that actually is basically trading at par. ]
"That is correct. Our asset level debt has basically been rock solid through this entire thing."
"We're about to launch another asset level debt in the next week or two that has already been rated high investment grade. You know, we suspect that that will be underwritten in the market at a 7 to a 7.5% interest."
"You saw that in our earnings when I said, okay, high yield debt is getting expensive, we'll go to prepayments, which we have done in the past, and we raised $9 billion worth of prepayments and deposits."
OpenAI chairman Bret Taylor says we've already passed AGI as most people would have defined it three years ago
"Three years ago, if I asked you to define AGI, you probably would have defined something that we've passed already."
Anthropicβs IPO roadshow video is 43 min. It's faster to read it here: https://t.co/vcggwmEanH
Full transcript, each line tagged with the speaker. Click to any line to jump to that spot in the video.
Mohamed El-Erian says a 50 basis point hike is now being debated, and the 10 year is almost back at 5%
"The market won't like it because the market is also starting to price a higher probability of a subsequent rate hike."
"On a three month basis annual inflation is now running at 3.75%, that's the highest in two and a half years."
[ Stuart: One Fed governor is talking about a 50 basis point hike at some point. Is that on the table? ]
"So it's now being debated."
"Last I looked, the 10 year yield was almost back at 5%, it was at 4.97, enormous jump just today."
Dan Ives says Jensen Huang has 60 direct reports and still emails marketing about a slide at 3am
"Like you have 60 reports into Jensen. Jensen is so hands-on, 3:00 a.m., like he'll be like emailing someone in marketing about some slide."
Vlad Tenev recalls Micky Malka promising up to $500 million during GameStop before he had it, then calling SVB's CEO on a Hawaii golf course
[ David: So, when you know that you need to find the money, who's the first person you call? ]
"I called Micky."
"And he committed on the spot. He's like, 'How much do you need?' I said, 'I don't know. 250 million, 500 million, I'm not sure.' He's like, 'I've got it.'"
[ David: He didn't have it yet, though. ]
"Well, so I learned later in an odd twist of fate that he called up the CEO of SVB."
"...he was on the golf course in Hawaii and Micky calls him. He's like, I'm going to have to pull down that line of credit that I set up with you guys. So, he didn't have the money, but he had a line of credit."
Dan Ives says Jensen Huang has 60 direct reports and still emails marketing about a slide at 3am
"Like you have 60 reports into Jensen. Jensen is so hands-on, 3:00 a.m., like he'll be like emailing someone in marketing about some slide."
D.A. Davidson's Gil Luria says Jensen Huang personally bailed out CoreWeave three or four times, which is a problem if he has to step down
"Nvidia didn't bail them out. Jensen Huang bailed them out."
Dario Amodei tells Anthropic IPO buyers that Claude will be able to discover compute multipliers entirely by itself, so their number grows faster and faster
"A 4x compute multiplier means you can use 25 units of compute to train the exact same model, or you can use those 100 physical units to train an even more intelligent model that would have previously required 400 units."
"Compute multipliers create a competitive advantage for us that's hard to replicate. They build on each other... They stack."
"We believe that this can accelerate even further as we approach recursive self-improvement. Claude will be able to discover compute multipliers entirely by itself, allowing the number of compute multipliers to grow faster and faster."
Anthropic cofounder Tom Brown says Mythos got Claude running on $AMD chips in three days, a job that used to take dozens of engineers months
"Claude ported or wrote almost 100% of the kernels."
AWS CEO Matt Garman says AWS lands a GPU every 14 seconds and the world doesn't do one launch a day, so space data centers are a decade or two out
[ Alex: What do you think about data centers in space? ]
"I think that it is highly unlikely to be economically feasible or practical in the next decade or two."
[ Alex: Elon's trying to fix that. ]
"Like it's a great, I appreciate it, but one person is not going to fix it... we as a world don't do one launch a day today."
"We're landing in a data center today, one GPU every 14 seconds."
[ Alex: Wow. ]
"So, we don't do a launch a day for the world... a rack of GPUs, you know, might weigh a ton."
Vinod Khosla says he sat out Anthropic so Sam Altman keeps telling him things at their regular dinners
"Well, very simply because insights about where AI is going, the deepest insights are what's most important. I regularly have dinners with Sam, and I get pretty deep insight into where the world of AI is going, not only next quarter but in a year, in two or three."
[ Deirdre: If you could have dinner with Dario on a regular basis, would you be in Anthropic? ]
"But he wouldn't share as much information knowing I may talk to Sam also. So being in one camp is an advantage when it comes to understanding what's going on in the field of AI."
[ Deirdre: So Sam is willing to share more with you because you're only in OpenAI. ]
"Yes."
AWS CEO Matt Garman says AWS lands a GPU every 14 seconds and the world doesn't do one launch a day, so space data centers are a decade or two out
[ Alex: What do you think about data centers in space? ]
"I think that it is highly unlikely to be economically feasible or practical in the next decade or two."
[ Alex: Elon's trying to fix that. ]
"Like it's a great, I appreciate it, but one person is not going to fix it... we as a world don't do one launch a day today."
"We're landing in a data center today, one GPU every 14 seconds."
[ Alex: Wow. ]
"So, we don't do a launch a day for the world... a rack of GPUs, you know, might weigh a ton."