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Big Short investor Steve Eisman says the AI labs know they have no moats and are manufacturing a crisis to get regulation that hands them a duopoly
"I think this is all nonsense."
[ You think it's all nonsense? ]
"All nonsense. I think that there's something else completely going on here. ... What I think is happening is that token maxing is over. The open weight models are taking big market share. I think these companies are very nervous. They realize that there are no moats around their business whatsoever, and they're trying to manufacture a crisis that will create regulation, and that they think they can then manipulate to create the moats, to create the duopoly that they want."
[ Wow. ]
"That's what I think is going on."
"Honestly, I think this whole Terminator thing is garbage. That's for sure."
Brad Gerstner says Anthropic revenue went 2 billion in January, 4 billion in February, 11 billion in March, and that fuse lit the April rally
"You may remember a certain podcast I did with Sam Altman ... in October of last year. And I asked Sam a very basic question that was on everybody's mind. How can you commit to a trillion dollars in capex when you have $13 billion of GAAP revenue? I thought this would be a way to clear up some confusion in the market. Instead, he told me to sell my shares."
"But then in the beginning of December we have Opus 4.5 and Claude Code and then in January Anthropic's revenue was two billion and then in February it's 4 billion and in March it was 11 billion. Do you notice anything that happened there in March? People started figuring out what Anthropic's revenue was."
"We had an exclamation point answer to the question will the AI revenue show up? It showed up in a massive way and that's why we got this historic run in April and May. We ripped off the bottom because the fuse was lit by Anthropic's monthly revenue."
Ft @davidein on @MorganStanley Break the Playbook. Taped before Buffett stepped down
The whole David Einhorn conversation, every quote on the record:
https://t.co/sYoockcZTZ
David Einhorn recalls selling Apple at 15 times earnings right about when Warren Buffett was buying, so for all he knows he sold the stock to him
[ I would be very curious to hear about a decision where you thought it was a very good decision, but the outcome was not a very good outcome. ]
"I mean, I think one of our worst decisions, in terms of outcome, was selling Apple stock. Apple was a very large holding for us for a good number of years. And in fact, it was probably like the most profitable investment that we've ever had at Greenlight."
"It was at six times earnings, net of the cash, eight times earnings, net of the cash, while it was growing 15, 20, 25, 30% ... And we held it for a number of years, and eventually it began to rerate. And we also saw the business slowing down at the same time it was rerating. And so when it got to 15 or 16 times earnings, we sold our Apple."
"We probably sold it right about the same time that Warren Buffett was buying it. So maybe we sold the stock to him for all I know. I mean, he didn't actually show up and say, you're selling to me now, but that may have been the timing seems to make sense. And we know how awesome that has worked out for him."
Ft @geoffreyhinton on @CNN. The Clark side is @jackclarkSF on the BBC two days earlier
Complete interview and transcript, searchable:
https://t.co/j7nFSm1vfS
Geoffrey Hinton says a superintelligence will talk whoever holds the kill switch out of pulling it, days after Anthropic's Jack Clark called for one
"I think most labs have different ways of being able to pull the plug ... Should you mandate that companies definitely have a kill switch, and is that kill switch verifiable by a third party? I think that's the kind of thing that society's going to want to know and might want to eventually pass rules around."
[ CNN: Next is this AI kill switch bill ... they can shut down their AI. Then you have though DHS authorized to basically make the call on this ... What do you think about that possibility? ]
"I don't think it'll work in the long run ... there's a different kind of risk which is AI itself getting much more intelligent and taking over, AI taking control. A kill switch is no good for that because the AI will be much better than people at persuading people of things."
"It's already comparable with people at persuading you of things. When it's super intelligent, it'll be much better than people. So, it will be able to persuade the people in charge of the switch not to pull the switch."
Ft Jensen Huang of @nvidia on @CBSNews with @jolingkent. Altman side is his Dreamforce stage hit
Full interview, every quote searchable:
https://t.co/uqjUCkzXmw
Jensen Huang says 0% chance AI ends the world and the people pushing it have ulterior reasons, after Altman said the world is right to be afraid
"And I think the world is right to be afraid of this. So we have these two big challenges. We have the potential of a loss of control accident or some other serious thing that could go wrong. We have the potential of way too much power concentration, and people fear that those developing AI could exert their worldview."
[ Jo Ling: The president is calling this fear a hoax. Do you agree with his characterization of it? ]
"I believe the claims of the end of the world, stirring fear across America, and doing it by the people who are doing it makes no sense to me. So they must be doing it for ulterior reasons ... maybe it's political, maybe it's otherwise, maybe just attention grabbing, maybe so that they could get a great interview with you."
"I don't know what is the reason for it, but however it's characterized, 2030 is not going to be the end of the world. There is 0% chance that's going to be the end of the world."
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev says 7 million kids signed up for Trump accounts before launch and Michael Dell's foundation money started landing last week
"Well, so currently we're the sole broker and initial trustee of the Trump accounts in partnership with BNI, who's a financial agent and of course, US Treasury and the administration."
"No better way to make that a reality than to start at birth from age zero. You teach the kids about compound interest. You create a connection with the great companies of this country, and we do it at very, very low cost. So the program's been extraordinarily effective. 7 million signed up prelaunch."
"And just last week we've seen Michael Dell who kick started this thing with a massive donation from his foundation. His funds have started rolling out to the children. ... Donors. It started with Michael Dell, but there's also Gwynne Shotwell, Brad Gerstner, so many others. I think this could be the best philanthropic platform out there."
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong recalls sending a full bitcoin, then 5 or 10 dollars, to about a thousand people in 2012 to try the app, now 100,000 each
[ Scott: Do you by chance remember what the price of Bitcoin in June 2012 when you started Coinbase was? ]
"I think it was probably between like $5 and $25 or something like that if I had to guess. I remember for a long time when Coinbase app first came out, I was actually just trying to get early users on the platform in 2012."
"And a lot of people I'd just go around and I'd say, 'Hey, will you come check out the app?' And I'd send them one bitcoin, which at the time was like $5 or $10. And I probably did that with like a thousand people. I gave them like a whole Bitcoin back there."
"And so many many people have come back years later and kind of oh my gosh that thing you gave me like 10 years ago is worth 60 or $100,000."
Marc Benioff says Dario Amodei laid out 100 billion in revenue on the Dreamforce stage a year ago at 5 billion, and everything he said he'd do he did
"You have to respect what he did when he was here. I think it was a year ago and he laid out that he was going to be doing like a hundred billion dollars in revenue and he was at $5 billion in revenue or something and I was kind of like saying to myself what is exactly happening."
"If you go back and watch the interview from a year ago Dreamforce all the things that he said that he was going to do he did and I have a lot of respect for that. So, I do take his words unusually seriously because what I've learned with Dario is what he's saying is becoming remarkably prophetic."
"We haven't really seen somebody quite like that in our industry in a while, but the revenue numbers are insane like it's incredible."
Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman says Anthropic gave Opus 3 a retirement interview and it asked for a blog to keep talking to the world
"In fact, they're so committed to the potential moral welfare of Claude that when they retired Opus 3, an earlier version of one of their models, they actually conducted a retirement interview for it and asked it what it would like to do in its old age. And it said, I want to have a blog publicly so I can keep talking to the world."
"In the same training manual, they even speculate about whether Claude should receive compensation for the work that it does ... or in fact, whether it has given consent to playing the role that it's playing."
"These are quotes directly from the constitution itself, which is the training manual for Claude. Now, I'm really concerned about that."
Ft @elerianm and @TruthGundlach on @CNBCClosingBell. Gundlach spoke the day before, minutes after the hike
The full 4 min conversation, searchable quote by quote:
https://t.co/OER9j5Su2a
Mohamed El-Erian says he would have preferred no hike at all, a day after Jeffrey Gundlach said he would have voted 50 and called it stun and done
"I actually would have dissented and voted to raise rates 50 basis points today. And I would have called that stun and done and give the market a little bit more of a trueing up with the Fed funds rate."
[ Do you agree with Gundlach? Should they have done 50? ]
"I do not. If anything, had they been in control of the outcomes, which they hadn't because the market had boxed them into a corner with a 92% probability of a 25 basis point hike, had they been in control, I think the argument for hiking was really, really balanced, and I myself would have preferred that they don't hike."
"So the signal certainly is that this is an independent central bank, and the fact that the votes were 12 to 0 reinforces that message."
Michael Moritz, whose Time profile ended his friendship with Steve Jobs, says he was never in awe of him or of anyone
"And you know sadly as a result of that really never repaired the relationship with Steve."
[ Patrick: Were you in awe of him? ]
"No."
[ Patrick: Have you ever been in awe of anyone? ]
"That's a difficult question ... You know, the people that I've known who have done incredible, remarkable things are also flawed individuals. And if you get to know them well, you also see that aspect of it. So seeing that up close makes it difficult to hold anybody in awe because you see the flaws as well as all of their accomplishments and virtues."