Invest Like the Best

Conversations with the world's best investors, founders & domain experts / hosted by @patrick_oshag / part of @colossusmag

[Invest Like the Best @InvestLikeBest]

Gavin Baker (@GavinSBaker) says the disaggregation of inference can extend GPU useful lives from 3-4 years to 10-15.

That may single-handedly save private credit and reduce the financing rates for GPUs, which will drive demand and help finance the build-out.

"The disaggregation of prefill and inference is going to be amazing for the useful lives of GPU and may single-handedly save private credit.

Private credit is in pain from these SaaS loans. But there's a lot of private credit in GPUs too.

They were underwriting that to 3-4. The disaggregation of inference means that these GPUs are going to have 10 or 15-year lives.

The AI skeptics are like, "Oh, these companies are all cooking their books. The useful life of a GPU is only a year or two. The useful life of a CPU is only four years because the rapid technological change."

No. What rapid technological change has done with the disaggregation of prefill and inference is you can put a Cerebras system or Groq LPUs effectively in front of a Hopper or even an Ampere, use that Hopper and Ampere for prefill, and extend the useful life of that GPU until it melts.

This is going to be really good for the whole private credit industry. It's gonna help finance the AI build-out.

Because if you can start to finance GPUs at 5% or 6% instead of – I think CoreWeave's lowest financing was low sevens – that actually mathematically changes the cost to finance this build-out."

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

This is my sixth conversation with @GavinSBaker.

As always with Gavin, the conversation covers a lot of ground, but we spend the most time on watts and wafers.

We discuss:
- Why the wafer shortage may prevent an AI bubble
- Data centers in space (reframed)
- Elon's Terafab and the new chip companies challenging Nvidia
- Usage-based pricing
- The disaggregation of GPUs
- DRAM, frontier tokens, and open source

Enjoy!

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
7:55 Anthropic and OpenAI Valuations
12:58 Watts, Wafers, and Infrastructure
14:39 Orbital Compute and Data Centers in Space
22:49 Avoiding the AI Bubble
28:26 Terafab and the Future of US Manufacturing
32:16 Returns to the Frontier
37:23 Continual Learning
42:03 New Chip Companies
48:52 Extending GPU Lifespans and Private Credit
51:22 The Application Layer
57:32 The Token Path and Open-Source Dynamics
1:01:37 Cybersecurity
1:05:46 Diversity Breakdown
1:11:59 Assessing the Big Tech Players in AI
1:19:02 Geopolitics, Personal Safety, and the AI Horizon

[Michael Dell 🇺🇸 @MichaelDell]

Excellent advice

[Invest Like the Best @InvestLikeBest]

"A happy life is not necessarily an easy life." –– @dkhos

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

As a father of two young kids, I keep thinking about this from Dara:

"I think we're doing our kids a disservice by giving them too much, being around too much.

You want to love your kids, you want to know that they're absolutely loved and appreciated.

But it's the challenges in life that form you, and it's the overcoming of these challenges that give humans a profound satisfaction.

If you as a parent are overcoming these challenges for your kids, you're actually doing them a disservice long-term, whereas short-term you think you're doing them a favor.

They've got to learn how to make it in this world themselves.

A happy life is not necessarily an easy life."

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

As a father of two young kids, I keep thinking about this from Dara:

"I think we're doing our kids a disservice by giving them too much, being around too much.

You want to love your kids, you want to know that they're absolutely loved and appreciated.

But it's the challenges in life that form you, and it's the overcoming of these challenges that give humans a profound satisfaction.

If you as a parent are overcoming these challenges for your kids, you're actually doing them a disservice long-term, whereas short-term you think you're doing them a favor.

They've got to learn how to make it in this world themselves.

A happy life is not necessarily an easy life."

[Derek Thompson @DKThomp]

Very kind of Dara to sprinkle some tasty morsels into every AI camp's feeding trough

For the AI-value skeptics: They blew thru their annual AI budget in a quarter and they're already pivoting

For skeptics who say the frontier labs have no moat: Once Uber figures out what works, Dara says they'll switch to "efficient models or even "open source."

For the AI boosters: He's still pushing teams to "fundamentally use the power of AI to rebuild systems and processes from the bottoms up"

[Invest Like the Best @InvestLikeBest]

@negligible_cap Uber CEO on their AI spend from our conversation today: https://t.co/DlFKgizliB

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

Dara (CEO of Uber) on their AI spend:

"We blew through our AI budget in a quarter, for the whole year. It is forcing us to adjust.

We are going to meter headcount increases because to the extent that my engineers are getting much more efficient, their throughput is increasing. There's a cost to that, and it's a significant cost.

AI adoption has been occurring in all parts of the business –– whether it's engineers and how they scope projects, how they build, debugging, platform migrations.

I'm pushing the teams to fundamentally use the power of AI to rebuild systems and processes from the bottoms up.

I do think it's a combination for us right now of encouraging adoption, but then driving efficiency.

We're using the more expensive models to explore. Once we scale some of these experiences, we'll look to bring in more efficient models that are more efficient on a token basis or are open source."

[Invest Like the Best @InvestLikeBest]

From our conversation today with Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi:
https://t.co/V91Y6yAS9w

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

My conversation with @dkhos, CEO of Uber.

Dara took over in 2017, when Uber was losing roughly $4.5B a year.

Today the company generates $10B in free cash flow and is worth about $150B.

We discuss:
- How Daniel Ek convinced him to take the job
- How Uber spent a full year of its AI budget in a single quarter
- Uber's approach to autonomous vehicles
- Drones, hotels, and building a superapp
- Lessons from Allen & Co, Barry Diller, and Reed Hastings

Enjoy!

Timestamps
0:00 Intro
3:44 Bringing Order to Uber’s Chaos
7:22 Managing Stress and Going All In
14:28 Why Uber Is at the Center of AI and Physical
22:39 How to Win in Autonomous Vehicles
32:25 The Trillion-Dollar AV Opportunity
37:05 Drones, Robotaxis, and Global Adoption
38:20 Uber Eats, Uber One, and Aggregating Supply
47:00 The Future of the Uber App
55:55 Lessons from Barry Diller

[Invest Like the Best @InvestLikeBest]

Uber CEO: "We blew through our AI budget in a quarter, for the whole year."

"We are going to meter headcount increases because to the extent that my engineers are getting much more efficient, their throughput is increasing. There's a cost to that, and it's a significant cost.

I do think it's a combination for us right now of encouraging adoption, but then driving efficiency.

We're using the more expensive models to explore. Once we scale some of these experiences, we'll look to bring in more efficient models that are more efficient on a token basis or are open source."

[Ed Zitron @edzitron]

Uber’s COO has said that it’s getting “harder to justify” its AI costs because there was no way to show a link between AI spend and any meaningful increase in useful features. This is the first time I’ve seen a company say this directly.

https://t.co/xUhZvtpwah

[Invest Like the Best @InvestLikeBest]

@WallStRollup Full episode here: https://t.co/V91Y6yAS9w

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

My conversation with @dkhos, CEO of Uber.

Dara took over in 2017, when Uber was losing roughly $4.5B a year.

Today the company generates $10B in free cash flow and is worth about $150B.

We discuss:
- How Daniel Ek convinced him to take the job
- How Uber spent a full year of its AI budget in a single quarter
- Uber's approach to autonomous vehicles
- Drones, hotels, and building a superapp
- Lessons from Allen & Co, Barry Diller, and Reed Hastings

Enjoy!

Timestamps
0:00 Intro
3:44 Bringing Order to Uber’s Chaos
7:22 Managing Stress and Going All In
14:28 Why Uber Is at the Center of AI and Physical
22:39 How to Win in Autonomous Vehicles
32:25 The Trillion-Dollar AV Opportunity
37:05 Drones, Robotaxis, and Global Adoption
38:20 Uber Eats, Uber One, and Aggregating Supply
47:00 The Future of the Uber App
55:55 Lessons from Barry Diller

[Invest Like the Best @InvestLikeBest]

@edzitron More from Uber CEO on their AI spend: https://t.co/DlFKgizliB

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

Dara (CEO of Uber) on their AI spend:

"We blew through our AI budget in a quarter, for the whole year. It is forcing us to adjust.

We are going to meter headcount increases because to the extent that my engineers are getting much more efficient, their throughput is increasing. There's a cost to that, and it's a significant cost.

AI adoption has been occurring in all parts of the business –– whether it's engineers and how they scope projects, how they build, debugging, platform migrations.

I'm pushing the teams to fundamentally use the power of AI to rebuild systems and processes from the bottoms up.

I do think it's a combination for us right now of encouraging adoption, but then driving efficiency.

We're using the more expensive models to explore. Once we scale some of these experiences, we'll look to bring in more efficient models that are more efficient on a token basis or are open source."

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

Dara (CEO of Uber) on their AI spend:

"We blew through our AI budget in a quarter, for the whole year. It is forcing us to adjust.

We are going to meter headcount increases because to the extent that my engineers are getting much more efficient, their throughput is increasing. There's a cost to that, and it's a significant cost.

AI adoption has been occurring in all parts of the business –– whether it's engineers and how they scope projects, how they build, debugging, platform migrations.

I'm pushing the teams to fundamentally use the power of AI to rebuild systems and processes from the bottoms up.

I do think it's a combination for us right now of encouraging adoption, but then driving efficiency.

We're using the more expensive models to explore. Once we scale some of these experiences, we'll look to bring in more efficient models that are more efficient on a token basis or are open source."

[Invest Like the Best @InvestLikeBest]

@VijarKohli Great story!

[Invest Like the Best @InvestLikeBest]

Dara worked at Allen & Company as a young investment banking analyst.

The most important lesson he learned from Herbert Allen was to bet on people, not companies.

He followed through when he deiced to bet on Barry Diller.

"I was going to stay at Allen & Company for the rest of my life, but he was the one guy that I told myself, if I have an opportunity to work with that one person, it was enough."

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

My conversation with @dkhos, CEO of Uber.

Dara took over in 2017, when Uber was losing roughly $4.5B a year.

Today the company generates $10B in free cash flow and is worth about $150B.

We discuss:
- How Daniel Ek convinced him to take the job
- How Uber spent a full year of its AI budget in a single quarter
- Uber's approach to autonomous vehicles
- Drones, hotels, and building a superapp
- Lessons from Allen & Co, Barry Diller, and Reed Hastings

Enjoy!

Timestamps
0:00 Intro
3:44 Bringing Order to Uber’s Chaos
7:22 Managing Stress and Going All In
14:28 Why Uber Is at the Center of AI and Physical
22:39 How to Win in Autonomous Vehicles
32:25 The Trillion-Dollar AV Opportunity
37:05 Drones, Robotaxis, and Global Adoption
38:20 Uber Eats, Uber One, and Aggregating Supply
47:00 The Future of the Uber App
55:55 Lessons from Barry Diller

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

AVs on Uber's platform see 30% higher utilization...

In 2020, Uber sold its self-driving unit.

Since then, they've become the biggest aggregator of AV supply, partnering with nearly every AV provider (eg Waymo).

Dara explains their strategy:

"We're allowing these companies to really focus on building the driver. We are building services around them.

We're securing depots, charging, and working with fleet partners.

We're securing financing. We just announced a billion-dollar financing line with Santander for EV fleets and AV fleets.

We're working on autonomous insurance as well.

We're building the entire ecosystem so someone who builds a driver can get those cars in the road, and then, we have all the supporting infrastructure.

When they hit market, we've got instant demand for them.

AVs that are on our network are 30% or more busy than 1P AVs who aren't using our network.

A Waymo, of course they want to build their own brand and their own channel, but at the same time we are able to drive more utilization for them when their cars are on our network.

We think there's going to be an amalgamation of business models.

There already is in travel, there already is in food — same thing will happen in transportation."

[Invest Like the Best @InvestLikeBest]

@patrick_oshag @dkhos Full episode on Youtube: https://t.co/GYNnL3j0xv

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

My conversation with @dkhos, CEO of Uber.

Dara took over in 2017, when Uber was losing roughly $4.5B a year.

Today the company generates $10B in free cash flow and is worth about $150B.

We discuss:
- How Daniel Ek convinced him to take the job
- How Uber spent a full year of its AI budget in a single quarter
- Uber's approach to autonomous vehicles
- Drones, hotels, and building a superapp
- Lessons from Allen & Co, Barry Diller, and Reed Hastings

Enjoy!

Timestamps
0:00 Intro
3:44 Bringing Order to Uber’s Chaos
7:22 Managing Stress and Going All In
14:28 Why Uber Is at the Center of AI and Physical
22:39 How to Win in Autonomous Vehicles
32:25 The Trillion-Dollar AV Opportunity
37:05 Drones, Robotaxis, and Global Adoption
38:20 Uber Eats, Uber One, and Aggregating Supply
47:00 The Future of the Uber App
55:55 Lessons from Barry Diller

[Invest Like the Best @InvestLikeBest]

"It's 2026 and everything is fake.

Fake content by fake influencers with fake engagement from fake followers, launching fake products with fake testimonials.

In this world, the real has never been more precious, refreshing, special, and rare." –– @lulumeservey

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

Ari's bet on live sports and events has been so right

In a world of a 4-day work week and infinite content, the demand for live is only going up

Knicks Finals tickets are at all-time highs

US Open tennis tickets broke last year's records

And the limit of what people will pay for premium experiences has essentially no ceiling

[Invest Like the Best @InvestLikeBest]

Dan Loeb (@DanielSLoeb1) on what Eric Schmidt (@ericschmidt) said at Davos 2013:

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

My conversation with @DanielSLoeb1, his first ever podcast and one I've been wanting to do for years.

Dan started Third Point in 1995 with $3 million. Today the firm manages over $24 billion across equities, credit, venture, and insurance.

Along the way he wrote some of the most iconic activist letters.

We discuss:
- Why deep value stopped working
- The power of writing
- The Twitter and XAI credit trades
- Lessons from FTX and Danaher
- The Sony and Sotheby's stories
- What makes a great analyst today
- The importance of kindness

I feel lucky we all get to learn from one of the greats.

Enjoy!

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
2:48 Macro Views and Tech Trends
5:13 The Roots of Third Point
10:30 Evolving to Quality and Thematic Investing
19:07 Market Psychology and Inefficiencies
24:10 Good and Bad Corporate Governance
29:19 Activism
31:23 Sotheby's
41:37 AI
44:28 Sony
52:50 Danaher's Operating System
56:31 Building an Insurance Business
59:25 FTX
1:05:17 What Makes a Great Analyst Today
1:07:24 The Next Decade
1:10:00 Kindest Thing

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

Ari's bet on live sports and events has been so right

In a world of a 4-day work week and infinite content, the demand for live is only going up

Knicks Finals tickets are at all-time highs

US Open tennis tickets broke last year's records

And the limit of what people will pay for premium experiences has essentially no ceiling

[Invest Like the Best @InvestLikeBest]

@patrick_oshag Full episode on Youtube too: https://t.co/aA4bfkHfEh

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

Our conversation with Anthropic CFO Krishna Rao from a few weeks ago