BooBoo

German Farmer | Agri Economist | EU Grain Trader | TA

[BooBoo @BooBoo_grains]

@PeterLBrandt Exactly.
Risk premium for row crops eroding end of May without a Story (end of planting).
Precip needed July onwards…far away.
No Support from crude…yesterday Kiss&GoodBye in WTI on the way to $80.
There‘s a structural fundamental bull market in vegoils, but won‘t do it alone

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Good Morning from Germany, where the road to socialism is paved with ever-rising govt consumption. Since 1999, state consumption is up 63%, while GDP has risen only 31% and capital investment a meagre 16%. The public sector keeps expanding, but the investment base is stagnating. Germany is becoming less of a market economy and more of a state-led redistribution machine.

[BooBoo @BooBoo_grains]

@FabianWierczoch 🔨 nailed

[BooBoo @BooBoo_grains]

@sizov_andre @sovecon You can‘t make this up.
Gas storage empty but going Blabla. Crashing whole industry and now replanning economy…

[BooBoo @BooBoo_grains]

@CWRoehl @fynanze_ Was hat Shakiras Ex damit zu tun?

[Andrey Sizov @sizov_andre]

The May #WASDE blindsided the market.

USDA cut U.S. #wheat production to 42 MMT, down from 54 MMT last season. Global ending stocks came in at 275 MMT. The consensus was 281 MMT.

There were also big cuts across major exporters, including #Russia, the world’s No. 1 shipper. We do not agree with that part.

What this means for global prices - and where we see the key levels: https://t.co/fhfNAgvKFx

#oatt #sizovreport

[Andrey Sizov @sizov_andre]

The bid decline is visible. The margin pressure is more important.

Russian #wheat port bids eased last week as exporter demand softened during the May holidays and the ruble kept export economics deeply negative.

Deep-sea bids for 12.5% wheat slipped to 15,800–16,400 rub/mt, from 16,000–16,600 rub/mt a week earlier.

Large traders lowered bids, but the market was not one-way: some still had to raise prices to secure extra volume, while farmers stepped back.

That keeps the port-bid picture less straightforward than the headline move suggests.

Full breakdown here:
https://t.co/yaF2SUEMY8

#oatt #sizovreport #blacksea

[BooBoo @BooBoo_grains]

@TrendSpider Monster ☕️

[BooBoo @BooBoo_grains]

#Tesla falling off the cliff

[BooBoo @BooBoo_grains]

@_onlyscott Özil

[HY6 @highyield6]

Oil doubling is inflationary quick shock but it’s second effect deflationary. Kills demand for everything. Dust settles $TLT

[Warren Pies @WarrenPies]

Once bonds start rallying with oil, you’ll know the it is turning from an inflation trade to a recession trade…probably starts by the end of this week imo

[BooBoo @BooBoo_grains]

@lisaabramowicz1 Oil > USD120. —> Financial Crisis —> DEFLATION!

[BooBoo @BooBoo_grains]

@Schuldensuehner Don’t Tell socialists.
Guess they want to sell it to finance doing nothing

[Donald Dean @donaldjdean]

$NVO Novo Nordisk - The breakout is just starting

1 1/2 Years of downward pressure with a double bottom. Higher levels in store.

[BooBoo @BooBoo_grains]

@Laserbrille Mehr Energiebedarf

[BooBoo @BooBoo_grains]

@Vivek4real_ Fat finger

[BooBoo @BooBoo_grains]

@FamUnt 🙈

[BooBoo @BooBoo_grains]

@Faktencheck2030 Das muss Satire sein

[Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) @chigrl]

The reason nobody is sure why BTC is pulling back is because everyone is looking for a single cause when this is actually a systems failure with multiple transmission mechanisms reinforcing each other.

Here's what actually happened mechanistically:
Bitcoin ran from $40,000 to $126,000 in less than a year on a very specific narrative: Federal Reserve easing cycle plus institutional adoption through ETFs equals sustained bull market. The market built up $94 billion in futures open interest, with some platforms offering leverage ratios as high as 1,001 to 1. That setup alone created extraordinary fragility.

The trigger was simple but devastating. Fed officials reversed dovish expectations completely. The market went from pricing a 90 percent probability of December rate cuts to just 40 percent. Real yields on short term Treasuries stayed elevated above 5 percent. The entire macro story that justified Bitcoin at $126,000 collapsed in a matter of weeks.

Now here's where the structural vulnerability shows up. The new ETF infrastructure that everyone celebrated as bringing institutional money actually created institutional scale sell liquidity that never existed before. When the macro narrative broke, institutions could exit with one click. We saw $1.1 billion in ETF outflows in just days. This isn't retail panic selling. This is professional portfolio managers rebalancing away from an asset whose fundamental thesis just evaporated.

Simultaneously, long term holders who bought Bitcoin between $40,000 and $80,000 started distributing. They offloaded 815,000 Bitcoin in 30 days. These holders aren't selling because they think Bitcoin is worthless. They're selling because they see volatility ahead and they're sitting on 50 to 150 percent profits. Smart money doesn't ride drawdowns when they can step aside and rebuy lower with the same capital.

Here's where it becomes a cascade. When price broke the $100,000 support level, technical stops triggered across the entire derivatives complex. Over $20 billion in leveraged positions got liquidated throughout October and November. Some single day events saw $3.2 billion wiped out. The liquidations themselves created additional selling pressure, which triggered more stops, which forced more liquidations. Open interest collapsed from $94 billion to $68 billion, but there's probably still more leverage that needs to clear.

The critical insight everyone is missing: there are no natural buyers at these price levels. Institutions are rebalancing away from risk assets. Long term holders are waiting for lower prices to rebuy. Retail got scared off by the violence of the move. And new buyers won't step in until the leverage gets fully flushed and price stabilizes.

So the market has to fall far enough to accomplish three things. Clear the remaining leverage completely. Reach prices where long term holders stop distributing and start accumulating again. Find the level where actual value buyers with real capital see opportunity worth the volatility risk.

The $600 billion wipeout you're seeing is mostly the evaporation of unrealized gains that were paper wealth to begin with. When Bitcoin went from $40,000 to $126,000, that represented about $1.7 trillion added to market cap. A lot of that was pure multiple expansion based on a macro narrative that turned out to be wrong. Now the market is repricing based on reality: high real yields, no Fed easing, strong dollar environment.

This isn't mysterious. It's textbook deleveraging dynamics in an asset with no cash flows to anchor valuation, extreme leverage ratios, and a macro thesis that broke. A 25 percent correction after a 215 percent rally with 1,000x leverage in the system is actually normal market behavior when the fundamental story changes. The violence of the move reflects the amount of leverage that was built up, not any change in Bitcoin's long term prospects.

The real question isn't why did this happen. The real question is what price level actually clears the market and brings in genuine buyers rather than leveraged speculators. That's still being discovered.