Booms, Busts & Basics

Longtime Institutional Bond Trader, Market Maker, Portfolio Manager, Chartist & Part -Time Economist|Personal Finance Basics & Chartology |Not Investment Advice

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US…
1970s: 8.9%
1980s: 12.7%
1990s: 8.1%
2000s: 6.3%
2010s: 4.1%
2020s: 5.3%
---
All-Time Low (Jan 2021): 2.65%
2023 Peak (Oct 2023): 7.79%
Today's Rate: 6.66% (highest since Jul 2025)

[Booms, Busts & Basics @BoomBustBasics]

@KobeissiLetter He should have raised rates today. It was priced in and 3 other members wanted a hike.

Bonds punished his decision.

[Booms, Busts & Basics @BoomBustBasics]

They are also borrowing billions in the IG market.

Only a matter of time before they start diluting shareholders with equity or convertible bonds.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Meta's Reality Labs unit lost another $4.6 billion in Q2, bringing its cumulative losses since 2020 up to $87 billion. We've never seen a public company light money on fire to this extent. $META

[Booms, Busts & Basics @BoomBustBasics]

Bonds say Put up or Shut Up

Interesting that while the statement repeated, “the committee will deliver price stability,” Warsh opted to keep rates unchanged even though three members dissented for a hike.

An increase also could have added Fed credibility on inflation.

[Booms, Busts & Basics @BoomBustBasics]

@zerohedge Soon they will be diluting equity holders and funding with equity and convertible bonds…..just like during the DotCom boom.

IG bond investors are gonna need much higher yields and spreads if they want to issue more bonds!

[Booms, Busts & Basics @BoomBustBasics]

RUH ROH

[Booms, Busts & Basics @BoomBustBasics]

@charliebilello I was thinking the same thing when I saw this referenced in an article last week.

And M1 and M2 higher too

[Booms, Busts & Basics @BoomBustBasics]

Leisure & Hospitality -61k....biggest decline in leisure and hospitality payrolls since 2020.

So much for the "World Cup Effect"

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

On month/month basis, June average hourly earnings +0.3% vs. +0.3% est. & +0.3% in prior month

[NEW YORK KNICKS @nyknicks]

GOOD MORNING, YOUR KNICKS COMPLETED THE LARGEST COMEBACK IN FINALS HISTORY LAST NIGHT

[Booms, Busts & Basics @BoomBustBasics]

Just a reduction in earning expectations will probably crush this market

[Lance Roberts @LanceRoberts]

Bank of America’s research shows that elevated long-term earnings growth expectations have historically been associated with weaker subsequent equity returns, suggesting today’s exceptionally optimistic forecasts may leave the market vulnerable to disappointment.

[Kevin Box @Fuel_YourGrowth]

Nothing is impossible. Every problem has its solution.

[CP "The Fanchise" @CPTheFanchise]

The greatest shot in Knicks history. I said this was a team of destiny but this on another level. Seeing this live is something I'll never forget.

Still collecting my thoughts but Knicks Nation salute 🫡.

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

US 10-year Treasuries are offering about the greatest amount of yield versus the S&P 500's earnings yield going back to 2003. Either earnings have to keep outperforming, or bonds will start looking like an increasingly attractive alternative.

[Booms, Busts & Basics @BoomBustBasics]

@DrJStrategy Fed won’t raise or cut this year.

[Booms, Busts & Basics @BoomBustBasics]

@KobeissiLetter Fed Cuts off the table, Fed Hikes possible

Tighter financial conditions & Higher rates = lower stocks!

[Matthew B @boes_]

The U.S. is now spending more on data center construction than on public transportation infrastructure, according to new Census Bureau figures out today (https://t.co/2SonuBrsvY)

[Booms, Busts & Basics @BoomBustBasics]

@WhaleNoName It is, but many companies during the .COM bubble had no earnings.

What I’m thinking about is that debt is being used to fund datacenters now, instead of cash flow.

Most of https://t.co/4jniXpcChK companies had convertible bonds which we saw get crushed when the bubble burst .

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The US fiscal situation is much worse than that of other major economies:

The US federal budget deficit stands at -6.0% of GDP, the largest among all G7 nations.

The budget gap is also more than TWICE as big as the G7 average of -3.0%.

By comparison, France and the UK are running deficits at -5.0% of GDP.

By 2028, the US deficit is expected to widen to -7.5% of GDP, near the highest since 2021.

At the same time, Italy and Canada are projected to run deficits at -2.0% of GDP over the same period.

The UK, France, Germany, and Japan are all expected to hold deficits below -5.0%.

The US is on an unsustainable fiscal path.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

S&P 500 earnings are now expected to increase by 24% this year. We've never seen earnings growth this high outside of post-recessionary rebounds. An unprecedented boom fueled by massive EPS gains in big tech.

Video: https://t.co/BE95GpQv5f

[Booms, Busts & Basics @BoomBustBasics]

@WhaleNoName Dotcom crash was 2 bubbles. The 1st was tech companies with no earnings.

The 2nd was telecom companies that built out vast networks of fiber optic that never went live. Many of them funded using bonds.

Datacenters went from funding w/cash flow to bonds.

This won’t end well!