Pat Bormann

Overwhelmed Catholic Christian father, son, brother & husband, proud Iowa State Alum, retired 37-yr USDA employee, and farm for the amusement of my neighbors...

[Dirt Cheap Banks @dirtcheapbanks]

Long-term I think rates keep rising because the Fed is finding a weaker and weaker bid for bonds. The buyer of last resort keeps being the Fed itself, which is the definition of monetization. That path ends in three places, in this order: regional bank failures as long-duration assets get repriced against higher rates, then hyperinflation as the Fed is forced to print to keep the government solvent on its own debt, then a depression on the other side of the currency event.

I do not know the timing. Nobody knows the timing. Timing is what makes this trade painful. But the setup is visible if you are willing to look at it.

Federal debt is $36 trillion and climbing at roughly $1 trillion every 100 days. Interest expense has crossed $1.1 trillion annually and is now larger than defense spending. Foreign central banks have been net sellers of Treasuries for two years. Gold has broken out to fresh highs against every major fiat currency simultaneously, which historically only happens when the market is quietly pricing in monetary regime change. Silver is following. Central banks bought over 1,000 tons of gold in each of the last three years, the largest sustained accumulation since Bretton Woods.

None of these are bearish signals on their own. All of them together are the market saying something the financial media is not saying yet.

I am not selling my stocks. Stocks are claims on real productive assets and they will re-rate against the currency the same way gold is doing now. I am not going to cash. Cash is the asset being debased. I am long fixed-rate debt against real assets, long the miners, long gold, and long the specific American industrials that will still be making things people need on the other side of whatever this is.

The Fed will keep telling you the inflation problem is solved. The gold price will keep telling you it is not.

[Pat Bormann @BormannPat]

@MNelson_ISU @elgringodemingo @nickyd2020 @RussHustle Deiter was my Advisor as a young professor in the early '80s. He made an academic profession look really enticing - had a nice house in west Ames, a wonderful spouse that hosted the Ag Business club a couple times, and played racquetball with friends over lunch break most days

[Pat Bormann @BormannPat]

@elgringodemingo @MNelson_ISU @nickyd2020 @RussHustle Ron Deiter?

[Pat Bormann @BormannPat]

@gwiesefarms Depends. If you are are prorating 80% of optimistic crop yields as of today, and are assuming no major repair expenses to get the crop in the bin, things are probably looking pretty good today. Good enough to make an unplanned capital expenditure. Why they can crash and burn...

[Pat Bormann @BormannPat]

@6Shittalkerffs @hippyseachick I look at ankles
It's an EMT thing

[Pat Bormann @BormannPat]

@ndrockfarmer @grippinthagrain Pretty crappy if your "salesman " blocked you....

[Pat Bormann @BormannPat]

@DaddyBrewski @RushMornings @iHeartRadio In the immortal word of Senator Harkin "Dung!!!!"

[Pat Bormann @BormannPat]

@silagechopper 3 classics!!

[Pat Bormann @BormannPat]

@dirtcheapbanks Um, no..... But several well managed, locally owned banks dominate financial services in that community....

[Pat Bormann @BormannPat]

@dirtcheapbanks We're you in Mallard ( home of the "Friendly Ducks") to get this picture?

[Pat Bormann @BormannPat]

@BowTiedBuilds @dirtcheapbanks Have to drive 20 miles to find the closest local burger joint....

[Pat Bormann @BormannPat]

@harleylama Or sick pigs......or balky PTO shafts to attach......

[Pat Bormann @BormannPat]

@ZachVanWesten Fixing feed trucks is doing the Lords Work!!!

[Dirt Cheap Banks @dirtcheapbanks]

The 10Y just printed 4.67%, a 16-month high, and the market is finally admitting what every honest observer has been saying for two years: there are no cuts coming, there may be hikes, and the pivot crowd has been wrong for 18 straight months and will be wrong for the next 18. They keep pricing in a fairy tale in which a government running 7% deficits, monetizing its own debt through a central bank pretending to be independent, can engineer a soft landing without a single dollar of pain. That is not how monetary physics works. That has never been how monetary physics works. Long duration is a graveyard, and the regional banks that loaded up on long-dated Treasuries in 2021 at 1.5% yields are sitting on hundreds of billions of unrealized losses they have been allowed to hide in "held-to-maturity" buckets through accounting magic that pretends a bond worth 70 cents is somehow still worth a dollar. Silicon Valley Bank was not an isolated event. Silicon Valley Bank was the canary, and the mine is still on fire.

The Fed cannot cut without reigniting inflation. The Fed cannot hold without breaking more banks. The Fed cannot hike without blowing up the Treasury market and triggering the next round of regional bank failures. There is no policy path that does not end in either a currency event or a banking event, and probably both, because the system has been engineered, over 40 years of progressively looser monetary policy, into a corner from which the only exits are catastrophic. Gold is repricing in front of you, every day, telling you exactly what is coming, while the financial press insists the dollar is sound and the Fed is in control. It is not. They are not. The duration trade is not a buying opportunity. It is the exit liquidity for the people who already understand what is happening, and the only question that matters is which side of the trade you are on when the loop finally breaks.

[Pat Bormann @BormannPat]

@gwiesefarms This is a local operation doing organic on a very large scale: https://t.co/5feBBP4F1x

[Pat Bormann @BormannPat]

@FrPBehm @MichaelPTKelly Respectfully, you don't allow a family member to provide a brief remembrance? I would much prefer this over a service where the Priest who really didn't know the deceased attempts a stilted tribute as part of the homily.

[Pat Bormann @BormannPat]

@CoryRitter I'm frustrated with both the message and the handling of the message.....

[Pat Bormann @BormannPat]

@iamyourfarmer When I was a kid, I thought our neighbor was so unprogressive because he ran a fleet of 2 stroke John Deeres. I'm thinking that my 2 boxcar Magnums (that i enjoy and are all I need) are older than his popping Johnies were at that time......

[Pat Bormann @BormannPat]

@kowalchukfarms1 A wise old farmer advised to have 1 collectable or otherwise unessential tractor that was equal in price to a year's seed expense and could be quickly sold if the fertilizer hit the fan....

[Iowa Everywhere @IowaEverywhere]

🪦Big 12 glass court: March 2026 - March 2026