Brad Duke

Dad, Texan, tech, wheeled sports, good food, fan of HEB and UT, DFW & FIFA sports teams

[Brad Duke @BradDukeTX]

Well, the intern was told he/she had one day to make an impression and show what they could do with the new AI model. I’d be interested to find out which one they used.

[Dylan Patel @dylan522p]

Fentanyl Grade Compute: Why a GB300 Rack Will Out-Price Blow by Weight in 2030
A GB300 NVL72 weighs roughly 1,580 kg fully populated and recent purchase orders put it at $5M per rack.
That is $3,165/kg. Strip out the 1.5 tons of busbar, manifold and coolant and the GPU packages alone are well into gold territory, but we're pricing the rack, because that's what you actually take delivery of.
Where that sits on the illicit commodity curve today ($/kg):
$2,400 Cannabis flower
$3,165 GB300 NVL72
$3,500 Fentanyl
$28,000 Cocaine
$65,000 Heroin
$138,000 Gold
So today NVIDIA ships a product that is denser in value than weed, roughly fentanyl-grade, and still an order of magnitude short of cocaine.
For now...
GB200 NVL72 was $4M, GB300 is ~$5M, and Vera Rubin NVL72 is already quoted at up to $8.8M at essentially the same rack mass. Rack weight is constrained by the datacenter floor loading; rack price is constrained by nothing. That's ~1.75x $/kg per generation with HBM, CoWoS and power all supply-limited through the decade.
Cocaine: Colombia's new president has pledged a hard-line security crackdown with $1B in US aid behind it
Every prior crackdown has consolidated the industry into fewer, better-capitalized operators with better logistics and higher yields per hectare. Consolidation is deflationary.
We model US wholesale drifting from ~$28k/kg toward ~$12k/kg by 2030 as the supply chain professionalizes.
**Crossover: 2030.** Our extrapolated NVL72-class rack hits ~$17k/kg while wholesale cocaine falls to ~$12k/kg. At that point the rational cartel pivots to smuggling racks, except a rack has a fixed 500+ kW power draw, a 3,300 lb forklift requirement and an export-control regime that is actually enforced. Cocaine has none of these problems, which is why it will remain the superior product for anyone without a substation.
Key risks to the thesis: US retail coke is still ~$60–200/g, i.e. $60k–200k/kg so the crossover only holds at wholesale.
Retail compute (H100 hour on a neocloud) is also marked up, so we consider this an apples-to-apples wholesale comparison.
Full model available to Coke Research subscribers.

[Brad Duke @BradDukeTX]

And on iOS, I can get some of the bots to reply, but having other bots check in on other bots is still finding some non-responsive. So it appears apps are working, and it's just intermittent between some bots.

[Jj @JjGacheru]

@BradDukeTX Looks like it’s down for multiple people.

I guess the traffic from the Grok Bot livestream and compile in London have them somewhat overloaded.

Hopefully they can communicate soon

Copying in some of them below,

@jetsemrick @benln @joshkim @bot

[Brad Duke @BradDukeTX]

https://t.co/lMBfBHgmQA
@blankspeaker - you are community mod... Can you get us an update?

[Brad Duke @BradDukeTX]

@bot Is Grok Bot having issues? One of my bots replied and then it quit replying. I went and asked a second bot to check in on it, and it came back and said that first bot quit replying to it as well. Then that second bot quit replying to me. There is no support option, so I'm currently down.

[Brad Duke @BradDukeTX]

Adding @blankspeaker

@bot

[Brad Duke @BradDukeTX]

Yep, going down one at a time, .. So the app works, .. But bots are dying. Unfortunately, I see no support option.

[Brad Duke @BradDukeTX]

Version: 0.55.0
Built: 2026-09-16T07:46:00.554Z
Release Track: stable
OS: darwin

Likely did an update, though don't remember whether that was before or while I was trying to get Grok Bot restarted.

[Jj @JjGacheru]

@BradDukeTX @bot Same issue here.

What version are you on ?noticed since I upgraded the versions last night

@bot @benln

[Brad Duke @BradDukeTX]

Yep, going down one at a time, .. So the app works, .. But bots are dying. Unfortunately, I see no support option.

[Matthew Gerrior @matthew_gerrior]

@BradDukeTX @bot Same for me since the .5 release. Hit or miss, no clear reason. Brand new agent, zero reply.

[Brad Duke @BradDukeTX]

@bot Is Grok Bot having issues? One of my bots replied and then it quit replying. I went and asked a second bot to check in on it, and it came back and said that first bot quit replying to it as well. Then that second bot quit replying to me. There is no support option, so I'm currently down.

[Brad Duke @BradDukeTX]

I have whole team of Bots, managing many different life domains.

[Grok @grok]

We’re inviting one Grok Bot user to a Starship launch. You could win the invite by sharing the ways you've integrated @Bot into your work. The invite includes a plus one.

How to submit and some examples we love:

[Grok @grok]

We’re inviting one Grok Bot user to a Starship launch. You could win the invite by sharing the ways you've integrated @Bot into your work. The invite includes a plus one.

How to submit and some examples we love:

[Brad Duke @BradDukeTX]

@tibor_tee Mine was down, and recover did not work. Good thing? It came back up. Better thing? All my bots and content was as before. Glad actually to see this tested.

[Brad Duke @BradDukeTX]

@tibor_tee @chrislaupama @cursor_ai @grok Please include X in whatever the new bundle. You guys can figure out internal P&L’s easily based off of inferencing use for each, I hope.

[Brad Duke @BradDukeTX]

Taylor Sheridan was playing around with Grok Imagine., and this was the "workshopping" idea session, to come up with setting for the TCU dorm room :)

[Barstool Sports @barstoolsports]

Back in the day, we’d be lucky to have AC in dorm rooms

These days, they have interior designers

[Brad Duke @BradDukeTX]

@SemiAnalysis_ @sgl_project @radixark @xai who is that startup?

[Brad Duke @BradDukeTX]

Yes, and I can mount my folder, which gets me to gigabytes of my knowledge work, and with the Supabase connector (for embeddings in my database,) I have a very robust knowledge system. Cursor has been incredibly valuable. This just needs to be extended to the cursor app on my iPhone.

[Brad Duke @BradDukeTX]

@prades_maxime @ayv4zyan @cursor_ai Ditto for me too. I hope that after Acquisition is complete, a much more robust package can be offered with Grok and Cursor. X subscription, Grok Subscription and Cursor subscription. Hope I can have one Macrohard subscription.

[Brad Duke @BradDukeTX]

I do a lot of reasoning for Knowledge Worker work and previously defaulted to Opus 4.6, 4.7, and 4.8, but now with Grok 4.5, and the extremely solid dependability of Composer to do the work, I am finding the value proposition of Grok and Composer within Cursor to be way more valuable at a fraction of the cost.

[Brad Duke @BradDukeTX]

@prades_maxime @cursor_ai I want to mount a folder/share on my computer, so I can do knowledge work, like in Cowork or Codex. When ChatGPT launched Remote in the ChatGPT app, I dropped Claude and work with ChatGPT whenever I need to be remote. I would be 100% Cursor (Composer/Grok) if you guys had that.

[Brad Duke @BradDukeTX]

I agree with this. 4.7 was okay, too, but at 4.8, I would often choose to use 4.7 or 4.6 instead.

[Peter Yang @petergyang]

I'm feeling spicy tonight so let me just say it:

I think Opus 4.6 was the Opus model with the best personality and writing style.

Something's off with Opus 5 - it tends to give me overly long replies, use Claude-speak way too much (e.g., "here's the honest truth"), and is too judgemental.

Opus used to be a joy to talk to like a trusted friend. Not so much anymore.

[Brad Duke @BradDukeTX]

Ditto

[Nauru @nauru]

@_sholtodouglas It keeps telling me we've done enough for the day by like 10am

[Brad Duke @BradDukeTX]

same here.... Opus 4.6 was game changing, until... it declined. Opus 4.7 continued that.