Full podcast episode with @rauchg, @maxhodak_, and @bscholl.
40 minutes of unreleased material.
The AI Industrial Revolution
Part 1: Waste Tokens, Save Time
0:00 Three Frontier Founders
1:27 AI Software Factories
4:15 Waste Tokens, Save Time
5:47 Models Instructing Humans
9:29 Is Pure Software Dead?
12:03 You Don't Get Stuck Anymore
Part 2: Vibe Coding Hardware
14:39 Vibe Coding a Turbine Blade
18:07 Open Source Compounds China's Advantage
20:15 You Always Want the Smartest Model
22:44 Software Still Needs Hands
24:43 Humans Are Becoming Verifiers
Part 3: The Regulatory Frontier
27:53 The Regulatory Red Queen Race
32:32 Why There's No Innovation in Healthcare
36:49 We Need a True 50-State Experiment
40:31 China's FDA Is Beating Ours
43:37 Healthcare Is a Communist Society Inside Capitalism
45:57 Sid's Story: N-of-1 Medicine
Part 4: The Autonomous Company
47:49 Autonomous Infrastructure
51:25 Your Job Is to Train the Agent
54:54 The Next Lord of the Rings
59:08 What's Your Definition of Art?
1:05:00 Can AI Have New Ideas?
1:07:03 A Large Number of Small Teams
@tarkov Excellent addition to the game, atmospheric, high stakes-high rewards, as it should be. Would love to see even more content like this in the future, especially connected to the story and characters
All parents traumatize their children. People hurt people. We traumatize each other, sometimes unintentionally. The work isn't to be perfect, it's to apologize, to be humble, and to keep trying to do better.
That's how you create a healthy family.
Is Traditional Software Engineering Dead?
“Does this mean that traditional software engineering is dead? Absolutely not. Software engineers—even the ones who are not necessarily tuning or training AI models—these are now among the most leveraged people on earth. Sure, the guys who are training and tuning models are even more leveraged because they’re building the tool set that software engineers are using.
But software engineers still have two massive advantages on you. First, they think in code, so they actually know what’s going on underneath. And all abstractions are leaky. So when you have a computer programming for you—when you have Claude Code or equivalent programming for you—it’s going to make mistakes.
It’s going to have bugs. It’s going to have suboptimal architecture. So it’s not going to be quite right. And someone who understands what’s going on underneath will be able to plug the leaks as they occur.
So if you want to build a well-architected application, if you want to be able to even specify a well-architected application, if you want to be able to make it run at high performance, if you want it to do its best, if you want to catch the bugs early, then you’re going to want to have a software engineering background.
The traditional software engineer is going to be able to use these tools much better. And there are still many kinds of problems in software engineering that are out of scope for these AI programs today. The easiest way to think about those is problems that are outside of their data distribution.
For example, if they need to do a binary sort or reverse a linked list, they’ve seen countless examples of that, so they’re extremely good at it. But when you start getting out of their domain—where you have to write very high-performance code, when you’re running on architectures that are novel or brand new, when you’re actually creating new things or solving new problems, then you still need to get in there and hand code it.
At least until either there are so many of those examples that new models can be trained on them, or until these models can sufficiently reason at even higher levels of abstraction and crack it on their own…
And remember: there is no demand for average. The average app—nobody wants it, at least as long as it’s not filling some niche that is filled by a superior app. The app that is better will win essentially a hundred percent of the market. Maybe there’s some small percentage that will bleed off to the second-best app because it does some little niche feature better than the main app, or it’s cheaper, or something of the sort.
But generally speaking, people only want the best of anything. So the bad news is there’s no point in being number two or number three—like in the famous Glengarry Glen Ross scene where Alec Baldwin says, “First place gets a Cadillac Eldorado, second place gets a set of steak knives, and third place you’re fired.”
That’s absolutely true in these winner-take-all markets. That’s the bad news: You have to be the best at something if you want to win.
However, the set of things you can be best at is infinite. You can always find some niche that is perfect for you, and you can be the best at that thing. This goes back to an old tweet of mine where I said, “Become the best in the world at what you do. Keep redefining what you do until this is true.”
And I think that still applies in this age of AI.”
"My summary of Obama: He is the fellow who, when there is fire in the building, makes a great moving speech, then calls for advice." - Nassim Nicholas Taleb @BarackObama
You are a taker, not a maker. All you’ve done your whole life is take from the makers of the world.
The zero-sum mindset you have is at the root of so much evil. Once you realize that civilization is not zero-sum and that it is about making far more than one consumes, then it becomes obvious that the path to prosperity for all is just let the makers make.
Regarding Tesla, the reality is that I have been given nothing.
However, if I lead Tesla to become the most valuable company in the world by far and it stays that way for 5 years, shareholders voted to award me 12% of what is built. Anyone who wants to come along for the ride can buy Tesla stock.
If Tesla “merely” becomes a $1.999 trillion dollar company, I get nothing. This is a great deal for shareholders, which is why they voted so overwhelmingly to approve this, for which I am immensely grateful.
And they did so by a margin far more than you won your political seat.
Make HC optional without splitting player base. I see people that have and others that enjoy the hard mode. If anyone wants to have it the HC way, they begin with smaller/more restricted container, locked flee, less starting items/money, more expensive traders etc. The rest of us can continue the way it was before.
Also, the cheating situation should improve and performance improvements need to hit hard before adding more content and complexity to the game.