Brett House

Economist. @Columbia_Biz @ppforumca @PubPolicy_Munk @MasseyCollege (he/him)

[Raman Osipau @OsipauRoma54190]

Canada didn't just ship more aluminium to Europe — it took share in market after market.
US tariffs cut Canada's aluminium exports to the USA by −$2.50B (−30.8%). The metal rerouted to Europe, and Canada's supplier share jumped:
🇳🇱 Netherlands 12.1% → 31.9% (now #1, +$808M)
🇮🇹 Italy 1.3% → 5.6% (+$190M)
🇩🇪 Germany 1.5% → 3.4% (+$127M)
🇵🇱 Poland 1.1% → 4.1% (+$64M)
🇨🇿 Czechia 3.6% → 7.5% (+$33M)
🇸🇮 Slovenia 1.8% → 4.0% (~+$10M)
🇭🇷 Croatia 0% → 4.0% (new)
🇧🇦 Bosnia 0% → 2.4% (new)
Across all of Europe, Canada's share nearly tripled: 2.14% → 6.32% — overtaking the UAE to become the #1 supplier at $1.82B. At +$1,265M it was the single largest supply gain of any country.
The edge: at $2.81/ton, Canada is Europe's 2nd-cheapest supplier (+447k tons YoY).
A trade shock, visible market by market in official customs data. GTAIC maps any country pair, any product, in minutes.
Canada→USA report 👇 https://t.co/pLr7JeySpK

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

One of the reasons oil prices didn't spike to $200 is because temporary supply buffers played a big role in plugging the shortfall in the global oil market. Those supply buffers are depleting fast. @econ_harris and I lay out a timeline in this blog post...
https://t.co/Uiu2ryYJGC

[Brian Allen @allenanalysis]

Richard Haass just made a remarkable argument on CNN:

That America now has worse relations with Canada than China because the U.S. has spent years attacking allies with tariffs and political fights instead of building a united front against Beijing.

And honestly, that gets to the heart of one of the biggest foreign policy debates happening right now:

America’s greatest strategic advantage was never just military power.

It was the alliance network.

Dozens of countries aligned economically, militarily, and diplomatically around U.S. leadership.

The argument Haass is making is that Washington has started weakening that advantage itself.

He is correct.

[Adam Wren @adamwren]

.@PeteButtigieg on Gordie Howe Bridge: "The craziest thing about this is that Mexico was never going to pay for the wall, but Canada actually paid for the bridge."

[Eric Levitz @EricLevitz]

Trump could have presided over a very strong economy. All he had to do was...nothing: Inflation was trending downward, the AI boom was raising growth.

Instead, he engineered a global trade war and energy shock, while shrinking America's labor force. https://t.co/JvvlsQ83R8

[Brett House @BrettEHouse]

I'm looking forward to joining Invest Canada '26 today to share some insights on the macro conditions for investment in Canada. Join us at 9:20am Atlantic Time (8:20am EDT) at the main stage or online. #IC26 https://t.co/WP0vesE70p

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Largest weekly US crude stock draw on record confirmed.

Crude price:

[John Arnold @johnarnold]

A fire alarm is going off and everyone is ignoring it.

[Matthew C. Klein @M_C_Klein]

Really interesting paper from the BEA arguing that healthcare productivity in the U.S. is massively understated in the official data (with inflation overstated) because the standard methods do not account for how better treatments increase healthspans

https://t.co/2DsTv7vXWr

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

We've officially reached the "brutal" stage in the global bond market sell-off. The 10y10y forward yield (red) is making new highs all over the place. Japan's 10y10y forward has risen 30 basis points in just a few days. Even Swiss 10y10y forward is rising.
https://t.co/wLyQataCjN

[Brett House @BrettEHouse]

@beauti_animals McGill, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

[Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome]

Energy, yes. But also check out "goods less food & energy", which actually jumped before the war started.

[Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome]

Sky-high aluminum tariffs + a war that knocks out Middle Eastern aluminum supplies + pissing off one of the world's largest aluminum suppliers (and your nextdoor neighbor) = inarguably one of the biggest industrial own-goals in recent memory

[NoJetsTO @NoJetsTO]

Also, the MP is having an in person Waterfront Town Hall on the Jet issue May 20th 6-8pm for Spadina Harbourfront residents: https://t.co/xzv3y69Wl8 #topoli #cdnpoli

[Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome]

No sign of tariffs causing a US automotive investment boom:

[Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome]

The national debt just exceeded 100% of GDP for the first time since 1946: https://t.co/VSDBUUTaUH

[Richard Baldwin @BaldwinRE]

USA share of world trade is shrinking.

[Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome]

"If trade deficits drain wealth from a country, Americans’ average real net worth would have fallen over the past half-century. Instead, even after accounting for growing government debt, it has risen significantly." 😮https://t.co/wSOVetCaRD

[NoJetsTO @NoJetsTO]

Save Toronto Island! Premier Ford has expropriated the entire Toronto island for his jet scheme. Sign our petition and tell your elected rep to abandon this terrible plan! https://t.co/H6z0lItDG8 #topoli #onpoli #cdnpoli

[Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome]

Your Stat Of The Day, from @OxfordEconomics & @business: if you exclude re-exports and gold exports, both of which rose very sharply last year for non-trade reasons, US export growth "is close to zero."