Dolphins have so few resources this off season, but are intentionally placing the bulk of them in the most historically established pathway for outperforming expectations - QB and Run Game. It's old school. Spoiler: I'll be taking the OVER on Miami's win total in 2026.
Each year @JFowlerESPN does a survey of NFL executives who rank the top players at all positions. You end up with a list of top 10 players, honorable mentions, and also-mentions, maybe 20 to 30 players depending on the position, and it gives you a de facto feel for how respected each team's roster is in the eyes of the pros whose job it is to evaluate talent.
In 2023 the Dolphins had one of the top 5 most respected rosters in the NFL. Former GM Chris Grier was on top of the world. But that decayed over time, to barely top 10 in 2024, bottom 10 in 2025, and I'm quite certain when this year's surveys are in, Miami will be at or near the very bottom. This is why Grier is no longer Miami's GM.
There's actually a decent relationship between these survey results and follow-on win totals, particularly if you factor in something as basic as prior year win totals. Teams in the top 5 have averaged about 12 wins (playoffs included) over the last three seasons. And about half the teams in the bottom 5 go on to win 3 to 5 games. Not just bad, but REAL bad.
But it's not a perfect predictor, and that's important. Some of those bottom-feeders surprise with 7, 8, or 10 wins. A few others REALLY surprise by being among the best teams in the NFL.
Question is, do the over-performers share common ground? Yeah, they kind of do.
You see a lot of outperformance specifically at the QB position, whether it be a QB regarded to be "done" or "failed" having a bounce back year, or a relatively inexperienced/unknown QB making an unexpected splash.
Think about rookie performances nobody saw coming from CJ Stroud or Jayden Daniels, or a second year Drake Maye suddenly making a run at MVP.
But also think about a 35 year old Matt Stafford bouncing back from an injury-plagued, down year where the Rams only won 5 games. Or Russell Wilson going from that disastrous 5-win season in Denver that first year HC Nathaniel Hackett didn't even get to finish, to having a little bit of a bounce under Sean Payton. Think of Trevor Lawrence going from the butt of jokes to scoring 41 touchdowns this year.
I find it interesting a lot of the QBs who stewarded these over-performances (e.g. Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, Justin Fields) were dynamic, mobile guys who contributed strongly to renewed ground games, and how they and even their less-mobile colleagues benefited from offensive line revamps and newfound run religion.
It's a classic approach. Those who have watched decades of football will have seen a lot of teams widely disrespected from a pure talent standpoint outperforming with gritty, old school ball. Think Tony Sparano and Bill Parcells. Think Dave Wannstedt and Jimmy Johnson.
That's where the Dolphins find themselves. What is old is new again.
In an off season where the team is setting records for the size of their dead budget bloc, the only sizable contracts they've given out were to Malik Willis (another dynamic QB who forces defenses to play 11-on-11 ball) and RB De'Von Achane. They spent the #12 overall pick on a 352-pounder they plan to play at Left Guard.
And while we can't say how the story ends, whether the team will ever find itself "getting over the hump" so to speak, I think we do know how this very familiar story has a tendency to begin. Place your bets.
Jonathan Quick is gone.
Ryan Miller is gone.
Carey Price is gone.
Pekka Rinne is gone.
Tim Thomas is gone.
Tuukka Rask is gone.
Martin Brodeur is gone.
Corey Crawford is gone.
Roberto Luongo is gone.
Henrik Lundqvist is gone.
Marc-Andre Fleury is gone.
Your childhood is over.
HISTORIC TURNAROUND FOR THE CLIPPERS!
When the Clippers were 6-21 on December 20, Ty Lue, ahead of a game against the Lakers, told the media, "Our main focus is to try to be 35-20 the rest of the way."
The rest of the way, Los Angeles went 36-19, becoming the first team in NBA history to finish above .500 (42-40) after being 15 games below .500 at any point in a season 🤯
Last night, over the high latitudes of northern Canada, the sky reminded us who is really in charge.
As we passed near Iqaluit, the darkness above the Arctic began to move. Curtains of green and violet light rose, folded, and dissolved again, four fleeting scenes from a phenomenon that is as old as the planet itself, yet never loses its ability to stop you mid-sentence.
Iqaluit sits at the edge of the inhabitable world, on Baffin Island, shaped by ice, sea, and resilience. For centuries it has been home to Inuit communities whose understanding of sky, weather, and judgement was born not from instruments, but from survival. Long before satellites and forecasts, the heavens were both guide and warning.
The aurora borealis is born far from here. Charged particles from the Sun stream toward Earth during periods of heightened solar activity, and this week’s geomagnetic storm has been an exceptional one. As those particles collide with our magnetic field and are funnelled toward the poles, they energise gases high in the atmosphere. Oxygen glows green. Nitrogen adds reds and purples. Space weather, rendered visible.
What struck me wasn’t just the beauty… it was the contrast of our journey. Only hours after this show, our flight from London Heathrow Airport to Vancouver ended in forecast dense fog and a CAT III automatic landing. A very different natural phenomenon, demanding the same respect. One mesmerising and untouchable. The other invisible, operational, and decisive.
I’m acutely aware of the privilege of seeing moments like this. Not everyone gets that view. Not everyone gets that choice. Feeling humbled.
Four images.
One planet.
Many ways nature asks us to pay attention.
#AuroraBorealis #NorthernLights #PilotLife #AvGeek #FlightDeckView #AboveTheClouds #Iqaluit #SpaceWeather #AviationLife #Judgement #LongHaul #EarthFromAbove #RareViews