Brett Singer

Blockchain research

Glassnode:

[glassnode @glassnode]

Our backtesting engine found this bitcoin:native rule.

It buys when the 30-day RSI of entities in profit crosses above its threshold.

Since July 2023, its worst drawdown was 20%, against 53% for holding.

Discover your own strategy 👇
https://t.co/UnQWDO1QGx

[glassnode @glassnode]

$BTC is boxed in between $80K and $87K.

Below, buyers refilled the bids at the ETF and treasury cost basis. Above, the top buyers' break-even, the main asks and the largest liquidation clusters share one zone.

More on ETF flows, MSCI and altcoins in this week's Week On-chain.

[glassnode @glassnode]

Short-term bitcoin:native holders are back above the sell line.

Nevertheless, profit taking has stayed light.

More on this topic, as well as the levels to watch in this week's Week On-chain. 👇

[glassnode @glassnode]

Bitcoin is still stuck beneath the edge of a thick resistance band.

Moving above this level, would indicate a shift in long term market structure.

A return lower would result in significant pain for late longs. https://t.co/9fBfJzz1av

[glassnode @glassnode]

The blockchain trilemma: a network can strengthen two of decentralization, security, and scalability, usually at a cost to the third.

Read our joint report with @ARKInvest on how Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana compare. 👇

https://t.co/mIeqoHPXoJ

[Brett Singer @Brett_Glassnode]

Glassnode’s On-chain Model has re-entered the market for the first time since August 2025, when BTC was around $113,000.

The current read:

• Unrealized Profit Holding: Bullish
• Selling Volumes: Bullish
• Wealth Concentration: Bullish
• On-chain Volumes: Bearish, but trending towards bullish

3 of 4 signals are now firing.

The model avoided 29% of the subsequent downturn and has now re-entered around $80,000.

Average holding periods are 6–9 months. Let’s see how this plays out over the months ahead.

[Brett Singer @Brett_Glassnode]

Altcoins in one chart.

🟢 Market cap is still up 421% since 2019
🔴 The average altcoin is down 94% from its peak

Yes the cap has cooled since its late 2024 high, but nowhere near as much as the coins themselves.

Old projects die and new ones replace them. There's over 10x more alts now than in 2019.

[glassnode @glassnode]

After large market moves, staying objective and level-headed is difficult.

Our latest weekly report walks you through the data: the liquidation cascade, who bought the squeeze, and the supply now sitting overhead.

[glassnode @glassnode]

Strong hands are buying bitcoin:native.

Bottoms are formed when profit taking slows and conviction buyers step in. This setup looks similar to what we saw during 2022.

The largest increase in BTC held by conviction buyers occurred when BTC dropped to $60k in January.

[Brett Singer @Brett_Glassnode]

Step 4: Put it all together.

With a few clicks, we’ve built a strategy with:

• 1.96 Sharpe
• 77% average annual return
• 35% max drawdown

It's easier than ever to build and test systematic strategies for your crypto holdings.

Message me if you’d like to test it for yourself.

#Bitcoin #Crypto #glassnode

[Brett Singer @Brett_Glassnode]

I’ve been loving the ability to use Glassnode Scouts.

Without requiring any coding experience, it backtests individual metrics using machine learning, then shows you example portfolio strategies built around one or two metrics at a time.

A really useful way to see which signals actually have predictive value. Here are a few examples 👇

[Brett Singer @Brett_Glassnode]

Step 3: Combine metrics to create a stronger strategy.

You can test different combinations of signals and see how they perform together rather than evaluating each metric in isolation.

Increases hit rate up to 66%
Increases Sharpe to 1.96

[Brett Singer @Brett_Glassnode]

Polled Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Gemini on one question:

What % of Americans will have jobs in the future?

Not nearly as bearish as I expected.

[Brett Singer @Brett_Glassnode]

Update on Glassnode signals:

They continue to outperform.

Despite the recent pump:
• Top model is Short
• All others are Out

No chase. No FOMO.

On-chain structure still leans defensive.

The edge is patience.

#Bitcoin #Crypto #OnChain

[Brett Singer @Brett_Glassnode]

What caused the market to decline?

1. Whale Distribution: Large holders sold more than 180,000 BTC from late December through the end of January, adding meaningful supply to the market.

2. Derivatives Liquidations: Significant liquidations in derivatives markets injected additional liquidity into an environment already facing excess supply and weak demand ~ adding approx. 39,000 BTC to supply.

3. Options Market Sentiment: Options markets have reflected bearish near-term sentiment since August 2025, with downside positioning accelerating in early December.

4. New Investor Capitulation: The share of BTC held by new wallets declined sharply (from approximately 23% to 17% of total supply) indicating selling by newer participants without sufficient new entrants to absorb supply.

5. ETF Outflows: Roughly 82,000 BTC have exited spot BTC ETFs since November 2025, further contributing to net sell pressure.

[Brett Singer @Brett_Glassnode]

@_CryptoArsenal @xrpscan @glassnode Sure. Let's have a call next week. I'll DM you some times for us to chat.

[Brett Singer @Brett_Glassnode]

Crypto Insights Group (CIG) reports that the average blockchain directional fund was down –16.9% last year, while BTC fell –6.5% and ETH –11.5%.

That’s clear underperformance.

Many strategies still rely primarily on price and market data, missing the context provided by on-chain fundamentals and derivatives signals.

A few years ago, Glassnode published a set of model portfolios demonstrating how on-chain data can be applied systematically. Those models, by contrast, outperformed. Averaging roughly +1% on the year.

Better data → better decisions. If you’d like to explore these models further, feel free to reach out.

[Brett Singer @Brett_Glassnode]

New Beta Release: Glassnode on Snowflake

We’ve just released a beta Snowflake environment at Glassnode designed specifically for quantitative teams that need scalable, high-performance access to blockchain data inside their existing analytics stack.

This unlocks:
- Native querying directly in Snowflake
- Faster workflows for research, modeling, and backtesting
- Easier collaboration across quant, data, and engineering teams
- Enterprise-grade governance and security

If this is relevant for your team and you’d like early access or more details, send me a message and I’m happy to connect.

#snowflake #quant #crypto