Bro_D

Product Professional. Busted Finance/Angel City Stakes owner and high-performance computing wizard. NFA, DYOR. Content provided for entertainment purposes only.

[Bro_D @Bro_D]

"Studies such as the SPIVA Scorecard have consistently shown that a significant majority of actively managed funds underperform their respective market benchmarks over various time horizons.

For instance, a typical finding might be that around 60% to 70% of actively managed funds fail to beat their benchmarks over a five-year period."

This is mind-blowing to me! #Investing #Stocks #MutualFunds #HedgeFunds #FamilyOffice

Below, you can see my five-year measures that cover the period from May 2019 to April 2024 (annualized returns) and through May 14, 2024 cumulative. My goal has always been to beat the Nasdaq, specifically QQQ (before they were "quad-Q's") because in my lifetime Nasdaq has been the best performing index for as long as I can remember and when invested in for over a long period of time historically has generated massive outperformance against the S&P, so I have always used that as the barometer of my performance.

I am ok with a higher standard dev and Sharpe ratio because these are retirement funds. As I get closer to the retirement age my plan is to shift more defensively, gradually over time.

To provide some context as to my performance, I have passed the #CMT (Chartered Market Technician) Levels I and II exams, and used to tutor others on how to successfully pass these exams as well. The old company I did this through was called Market Tech Lab, but that feels like a different lifetime ago. I use a proprietary strategy that relies almost exclusively on #TechnicalAnalysis, but also includes some unconventional variables. I have noticed my ability to leverage or refute fundamental themes (such as whether the current conditions are bullish or bearish) has increased significantly by researching and thinking critically about insights shared on X, against the backdrop of underlying market conditions viewed through the lens of a #MarketTechnician.

I hope to add more of my own insights to X and join various discussions and topics from users I respect.

[Bro_D @Bro_D]

@DiscountedTr @his_eminence_j You forgot selling NVDA right before its massive run a few years ago.

[naiive @naiivememe]

Just a random 7pm after school 20 years ago.

You had to be there to understand

[Arbitrage Andy @ArbitrageAndy1]

https://t.co/LhTi8CDgIZ

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Ryan talked with the WSJ.

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Ben Affleck is clearly a smart guy. So this does not surprise me. It sounds familiar and on point.

Delivered much better than I ever could.

[Windows Chick @windowschick]

@churchofysl I think of AI the way I do Clippy. Annoying and frequently incorrect. But way more dangerous. I don't think people understand the danger.

I'll use it in an extremely limited fashion because my employer is in favor of it. I personally don't trust it.

[Bro_D @Bro_D]

Major implications if true..

[LeftHandedOctopus @AggieCapitalist]

"Recently, senior executives at Salesforce have admitted, both internally and publicly, that they massively overestimated AI’s capabilities. They have found that AI simply can’t cope with the complex nature of customer service and totally fails at nuanced issues, escalations, and

[Frank @FrankAFetter]

The STH supply in profit/loss ratio is back at the Break-Even level.

“Markets are a process.” $BTC

[CRG @MacroCRG]

My thoughts on BTC/crypto going into 2026

BTC current range: it's currently wedged in-between two key levels: 2026 yearly open and 2025 yearly open. These levels will be key all year

25YO lines up w/ bottom of the cloud, reclaim that + opens up an E2E play to top of the cloud. First target above 25YO is that ~$97k high outlined, then E2E

If price loses yearly open, then the lows are up for grabs. I really wish there'd been some sweeps tbh. Almost every major bottom/top for BTC has had a sweep of the low / SFP. So statistically speaking, not having any is kinda tilting

Overall IMO BTC bulls have the edge short term while above yearly open. Yet there are some things I don't like. I.e. there are 7 untapped lows. Also, a straight shoot up off the yearly open w/ no bottom wick on monthly/quarterly/yearly. Not great. I know 2023 was the same, but 2023 at least had a sweep of the low

I wish this low looked a bit different tbh but it is what it is. I'm playing it level to level atm, open to all possibilities (low in and we go straight up... or low not in and we gotta sweep: not taking either off the table). I'm positioned for both. Lots of crypto exposure w/ some idle cash to buy a big dip if it comes. Gun to head, maybe we go a bit higher, take out that ~$97k high then something happens in the macro to trigger a move down, then its time for the real recovery. idk, this is just guesswork

Regarding altcoins: I think we have some huge opportunities ahead in 2026. When exactly I'm not sure, but I'm expecting a big move down in BTC dominance *at some point*. When, idk. Does it move higher first? idk.

I'm pleased that memecoins bounced incredibly hard to start the year. The altcoin death (memes included) of H2 2025 was harrowing so this was/is a great reminder that memecoins are still the defacto go-to bid when risk appetite returns. When we get some real multi-month altcoin risk on action at some point in 2026, I believe memes will lead as they always do. Whether that comes imminently or after one more big dip, I do not know

For now, I am just playing it level to level, staying long spot, keeping core holdings the same and plan to add if any sizeable dips present themselves

2026 is a marathon, not a sprint. I believe it will be a good year for risk assets and crypto but with periods of high volatility to scare the hoes. So stay away from leverage, stick to spot, don't gamble on 'new runners of the day' and let's get after it.

[Bro_D @Bro_D]

@Rothbard1776 @JasonCoursey @KnoxieLuv @grok Was former Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández framed and imprisoned for fighting narco-terrorism by his own corrupt military and police forces that worked for cartels?

[Bro_D @Bro_D]

@Bluekurtic @michaeljburry @grok is this true

[Bluekurtic Market Insights @Bluekurtic]

@michaeljburry Ironic that Enron was replaced by NVIDIA in the S&P 500. Which phase of the cycle are we in?

[Bro_D @Bro_D]

@barkmeta 😂

[Bro_D @Bro_D]

Quite concerning…

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

🚨Almost NEVER in the history of the US economy has consumer sentiment been SO DEPRESSED:

US consumer sentiment fell to 50.3 points in October, the 2nd-lowest EVER.

It’s now ~10 points BELOW the Financial Crisis low and below all recessions.👇
https://t.co/wamGUmby9n

[Bro_D @Bro_D]

How ridiculous is this graphic that blocks out the first digit of the percentage change on the index. Powell’s feed makes the decline look like an order of magnitude worse.

Look, the Dow is down 17%!!!! 😒

@FoxNews
#FOMC #JPow #DowJones

[X-Art ☀️ @Dogeh8er]

“Get up” energy only!
Get up, stack conviction.
#XRP isn’t a vibe, it’s a mission.
@bgarlinghouse kept building when the room was loud.
🫡😎

[Carl ₿ MENGER ⚡️🇸🇻 @CarlBMenger]

Get on the #Bitcoin Ark!

[Bro_D @Bro_D]

@trohsgib Let’s goooooooo!!!