Bruce William

#Christian✝️ combat medic, medical provider // believer // It doesn’t matter who you are, The ability to triumph begins with you. miracle, Amen 🙏

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

US rates are rising again after the Fed hike.

No amount of rate hikes will increase Hormuz transits.

The only hope is to slow down the US economy enough to cause oil demand destruction...

But that would also reduce tax receipts and increase the deficit...

Meaning even more money printing would eventually be needed.

All roads lead to inflation.

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

From the Financial Times:
"Foreign investors are now buying more US stocks than government bonds....
International flows into US stocks reached 2.8 per cent of US GDP on average in the year to June, overtaking Treasuries — at 2 per cent of GDP — for the first time this century outside brief episodes in the Covid-19 pandemic and the aftermath of the global financial crisis, according to analysis of US Treasury data by Deutsche Bank."
#economy #stocks #bonds #markets @FT

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Equities now account for a record 48.2% of total US household financial assets.

This includes stocks held directly, as well as equities held indirectly through life insurance companies, private pension funds, government retirement funds, and mutual funds.

This figure has risen +13.9 percentage points since the 2022 bear market.

By comparison, at the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak, US households held 38.7% of their financial assets in equities.

For perspective, this proportion never exceeded 20% between 1974 and 1992.

Asset owners are winning.

[jeroen blokland @jsblokland]

Bessent learned an important lesson today.

Once you show markets that you are willing to adjust policy when they move against you, they will ALWAYS demand more.

The U.S. Treasury had already announced at least a doubling of longer-maturity bond buybacks. Today, Bessent tripled the size of operation "Treasury Twist" to $6 billion.

What did bond yields do?

They went UP.

[Oguz Erkan @oguzerkan]

Ray Dalio: "There'll be a supply-demand issue for the US debt."

The US needs to refinance $8 trillion of debt soon while running a 6% deficit.

Investors know the deficit won't come down and the US will inflate its debt away.

So nobody wants to hold US debt at lower yields.

[MBAeconomics @MBAeconomics1]

Silver just bounced HARD off critical $64 support!

$SILJ held up better than silver on the downside and is now outperforming silver on the upside.

That’s how you know precious metals are in a bull market.

Wall Street is finally paying attention. I didn’t think they had it in them!

Lambo time!

#gold #silver

[norvast @ColinSt30481392]

As expected $GDX printed a HCH this week and has now commenced its decline into a HCL to create the pivot for the daily inclining trend line. The only approximate trend line is that through the lows early in the daily cycle, a long way down!

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

Two Yen-related updates:
1. The yen has weakened to 160 per US dollar again, which is bound to fuel intervention speculation (CNBC chart below).
2. In a letter to Senator Elizabeth Warren, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that “Japan is a major holder of U.S. Treasuries…. Disorderly yen markets can trigger forced unwinds, which could destabilize global markets and ultimately raise borrowing costs for American families and businesses.”
#economy #japan #markets #yen #fx

[DeepValue Signals @DVSignals]

If you’re a $SILVER bull, this is NOT what you want to see.

The $GOLD / $SILVER ratio initially faked a breakdown… and is now threatening to break out the other way instead.

If that confirms, it would be a clear short-term warning for silver.

More on this later.

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

The core of the US financialized empire is under attack... the UST market.

The world has learned 3 important lessons:

1. Countries cannot be allowed to sell their UST holdings.
2. To prevent them from selling, Bessent/Warsh will ultimately print.
3. Your reserve assets can be frozen or seized.

In other words, the USD/UST system is increasingly unfit to serve as the world's reserve system.

Gold is the logical alternative because it isn't anyone else's liability...
huge price swings have zero effect on the global financial system.

China is already at the forefront of building the infrastructure for such a gold-backed system.

The yuan operates within a semi-closed capital account, but China is effectively creating a bridge through gold...

Trade gets invoiced in yuan, and surpluses can ultimately be converted into physical goods or gold.

By building gold storage infrastructure abroad, China can even ensure that gold is held within friendly jurisdictions.

And there's more:

- China 10-year yield: ~1.8%
- US 10-year yield: ~4.7%

So China, the world's factory base, is serving the whole menu:

- Want to borrow at ~60% lower rates... use yuan
- Don't trust us... settle in gold, stored locally

In a world where trust is in perpetual decline, China is leveraging gold's millennia-old credibility to gradually dedollarize global trade.

[Rashad Hajiyev @hajiyev_rashad]

After today's false breakout, which was a bait (we know post fact), silver went on to form a breakdown. After all this calamity, I expect buyers to push silver back into formation asap.
Today's false breakdown is likely going to be a catalyst for silver's rally to $79 mark by early September...

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

US Treasury curve move sends 2 messages
Today’s 2s-10s (~7 bps) and 2s-30s (~10 bps) yield curve flattening (Bloomberg charts below) would suggest a double message from fixed income markets:
Short-term hawkish repricing following Chair Warsh’s firm commitment to the inflation target.
An endorsement of longer-term Fed credibility.
#economy #markets #federalreserve

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

Cannot remember when I have had such a heavy position as present with the grain markets.
I am long KC Wheat, Soybeans, Corn, Meal - my goal will be to get to a composite break-even stop level
Also am long Bitcoin, long NY Sugar, long Peso, short Lean Hogs
Notice to trolls - I exit my positions on a day's notice so screen shooting this X post would not be a good use of your time

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

US short-term interest rates are surging as Warsh signals rate hikes.

What he forgot to say is that the Fed has been buying short-term US debt at a faster pace than during Covid to suppress rates.

And now we're supposed to believe he's going to raise them?

Bullshit.

Don't listen to his talk. Watch his actions.

Warsh, together with Bessent, will inflate the debt away.

[Jeffrey P. Snider @JeffSnider_EDU]

The 30-year yield crossed 5 percent and everyone lost their minds. The panic is misplaced.

We saw this exact movie in 2023. The long bond crossed 5, everyone screamed rates were going to 7, 8, 9. Then nothing happened.

Three years later it is barely 25 basis points higher. It was never a signal. Just a round number people turned into a story.

Yes, we crossed 40 trillion in debt, and yes, that is a real problem. But it is not one the Treasury market is pricing.

Here is the tell. If the market feared that debt, the premium to hold a 30-year over a 10-year would blow out fast. Instead it is historically narrow. About 100 basis points, versus 400 in the early 2010s.

The bond market is not panicking. People are.

[Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg]

Complacency. Suppression of Volatility. No Fear.

The "RUN FOOLS" - Moment is closing in.
The underlying structure is building for a massive move!

I expect the spike in VOLATILITY to be greater - faster - than anything we have experienced before!

Not here yet.... but coming!!

Yes - I will say WHEN.

[Jay Roberge 🚀 @jmroberge]

#Silver bounced hard today—defending the upper-$67s and pushing back through $69, with $70 resistance once again in sight.

Tomorrow’s weekly close matters.

Hold $68 = constructive.
Close above $69 = strong.
Close above $70 = a significant bullish signal.

The market has spent the week absorbing last week’s breakout rather than giving it back.

Now watch whether $70 finally turns from resistance into support.

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

Here’s a reminder that commodity producers and LatAm stocks are close cousins.

Makes perfect sense.

This is one of the most resource-driven regions in the world.

What a compelling setup.

Hard-asset-minded investors know exactly what to do here.

https://t.co/FBAKqguXgt

[Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas]

DEBASER: Gold and Bitcoin ETFs have combined for +$7b in flows in past week, by far a record for a 5-day period as debasement trade steals spotlight from AI. GLD, IBIT leading, in Top 10 for week. Also notable $IBIT YTD flows are now positive, completely dug out of sizable hole.

[Peter Spina ⚒ GoldSeek | SilverSeek @goldseek]

Gold prices reject sell-off and turns green...

Typically one would get a consolidation period after such a power-move since the start of the month.

But nothing is normal anymore. I do not discount a stronger move back towards $5K area here. There is a greater shock returning to the gold buyers... in the West. Scrambling back in here.