Why I stopped listening to the noise and started focusing on just two things: Relative Strength and a quarterly Earnings PEG list.
In a world of 24/7 financial news, the chart is the only thing that doesn't lie. Here’s how I keep it simple. 👇
You can make the case for a bottom here using several factors going on recently and all the noise on this App however . . .
Please show me weekly charts that look like these did in March right now?
$ARM $DELL $INTC $NBIS
Big swings in the market require an immense amount of experience to tackle efficiently and to treat them as an opportunity rather than something that kills your account for good.
When I started out, I would always drop to lower timeframes as volatility increased. I’d ramp up my activity right alongside it. That wasn’t the best approach, because I didn’t have enough experience or time in the markets to know that volatility was my enemy. It’ll kill your progress swiftly.
As you build time and experience in the markets, you get used to the swings and start to understand how to handle them. It can become a weapon. But the part to remember is that when you’re starting out, it is not the same as someone with 15 or 20 years sitting at the screen. They know exactly what to tackle and when. That’s a skill you learn over time. It doesn’t come from following someone or copying someone’s word.
This volatile environment we’re getting into is going to have large bottom wicks and large upper wicks. It’s going to be a losing proposition for most of you, because you don’t yet have the experience to know you don’t have the experience.
As lucrative and easy and welcoming as it looks, just ask yourself one thing. Do I have a volatility setup I’ve actually mastered? If yes, trade it. If not, don’t take decisions you were making on a daily chart and start making them on 1, 3, and 5-minute charts, suddenly convinced you can day trade.
Returns come from having a definitive edge. If you keep placing trades without one, you get diminishing returns and an equity curve that only points down.
The main point is that trading volatility is earned. Some of the most experienced traders avoid it altogether. They’d rather wait for the environment where liquidity is high, ranges are tight, bases are built, pivots are there and themes exist. That’s where they can operate definitively with size.
One of the biggest psychological barriers traders have to break before they start succeeding is respecting their stop losses. Respecting the risk they set out for any setup, any trade they take.
That respect for your stop, for the plan you built before you entered, is what keeps losses consistently small instead of letting them turn into big ones.
Time and again, experienced traders, market wizards, whoever you want to name, they all emphasize the same two things. Take small losses. Follow the plan instead of adjusting it mid-trade and looking back later at a 10 to 15% loss on a name where you should have taken 2 to 3%.
That’s the lesson. Have a plan before you take the trade, then respect it. When your stop hits, that’s the market giving you feedback. It’s telling you that this time around you’re not on the right side of it.
You’ll also hear it said that you’re always going to take more losses than wins. That’s fine. Your wins just have to be bigger than your losses for the math to work.
So get good at losing. Become a professional loss taker. Good losing means small losses, not big ones.
For anyone wondering, I have a 37% win rate on my swing trades.
I manage risk well, and I make money when markets trend. Thinking you need to be right all the time in a market this unpredictable is a fool's errand.
@mirsblog constantly trying to call me out for being wrong only makes the point.
If you're going to keep score on my bad calls, be prepared to do a lot of typing because I am wrong a lot.
The difference is I cut my losses quickly, let my winners work, and never confuse being wrong with staying wrong.
"Finding Your Edge
On the surface, the life of a day trader looks attractive, and I suspect that is one of the reasons so many traders are initially drawn to the style. However, more often than not, most learn that day trading is not for them and is an unrealistic venture for them to pursue (because of their schedules, their temperament, or perhaps a combination of both). Furthermore, you might make the classic mistake of believing that day trading is the actual strategy, when in reality day trading is merely a general term that means an individual ends the day with no positions."
- @QuintTatro
great book recommendation by @Clement_Ang17
"Traders get shot everyday, b!"
The reality of trading is that it sucks most of the time and there are short time periods where the easy gains come about every single day. During these times I want to be as aggressive as possible and exhaust myself with risk. 10 weeks straight up. What a fucking ride that was.
Then when it gets most difficult I want to have as LITTLE activity as physically possible. The emotional pitfalls are too great, and the equity curve expectancy is too little and I need to be READY for the easy environments to form to pounce with risk. I don't need to be the first buyer during these times. I need to wait until the market tells me it's time through leadership and thematic strength along with positive traction.
A 3% gap down in $QQQ is a bi-annual event that should not be taken lightly.
I have broken too many keyboards in my life!!
"YOU TOUGH RIGHT?!"
Avoid the mental pitfalls that come with overtrading chop. Market went on 10 week vertical run and now its setting up a weekly bull flag that will be the most fun thing to trade when it comes to completion and gives us that easy environment back - whenever that is. Could be a day, could be a week, could be September.
I am all set with slapping the keys every single day in this mess. I smoked the easy run. When it gets easy again I will be the first one loaded to the gills with risk.
But until then.... summer break 😎
"I'm out Rico..." 😂🫡
After talking to thousands of traders over the year, I know of not a single person who figured it out on their own; they always had someone else nudge them, borrowed ideas from others, or were part of some group, formally or informally or illegally (through pirated content, or joining sites using girlfriend or wife ID or shared passwords)
Obviously, many whitewash their background once successful and create a fiction that they are self-made.
Usually a waste of time buying stocks on FOMC days before the meeting. Every now and then you might get lucky, but in my experience it’s usually better to wait for the decision and the market’s reaction. FOMC days are often best treated as trader abstinence days. I look at them as vacation days.
2 High Tight Flags in a row for $DELL entering again after selling on earnings from previous HTF. Decent low volume drift to set up a turn. Rare stuff 👀
Stop drawing lines on charts and learn setups and create a process to scan for them, qualify them using some criteria and then have entry and exit criteria.
Trade setups not charts.
No one can make you a trader. It's all up to you at the end of the day. The sooner you come to grips the faster you grow. A good mentor can help speed up the process but intuition is build through experience and mistakes. Look in the mirror and dig deep. You got this. 💯