How I build my largest positions:
I get a lot of questions about how I size my highest conviction ideas. But before I say anything else..."high conviction" does NOT mean the idea can't/won't fail miserably.
I never put myself in a position to lose big. I ask myself before every single trade: is there a chance I can take a big loss here? The answer should NEVER be yes.
Putting yourself in a position to "lose big" could be oversizing, playing short term options, excessive leverage, no risk mgmt, etc.
With that being said, I have no problem putting 30% of my account into a position if the stars really are aligning (technicals, fundies, catalyst). But you're prob thinking: "seems like if you're putting 30% of your account in something, you could take a loss pretty easily, no?!"
Well, I've become obsessed with safe scaling...and I have a very unique four phase style for SWING trading.
Phase 1: Initial Entry
- size ~25% of full position
- you're very early here
- ideally entering on a big base or when stock is quiet
- price can be volatile, choppy
- be quick to cut...then re-assess + possibly re-enter
Phase 2: Bulking Phase
- stock starts to make an initial move
- want to see confirmation (higher lows, holding levels)
- strong trend, adding on weakness within uptrend
- move stops to break even
- another ~30% of full position added here (brings position to 50–70%)
Phase 3: Fake Out + Second Wind Phase
- where most get shaken out
- pullbacks, fake breakdowns, undercuts
- sentiment flips bearish short-term (huge!!)
- if structure + thesis still intact…this is a buy
- adding another ~20% here (position now ~85% full)
Phase 4: Final Adds
- trade is working
- these are momentum adds
- clean breakout + expansion move
- pressing the winner
- reach full position size (can be 30%+ of port)
Big wins are built through:
> strong trends
> longer timeframes
> solid catalysts
> building conviction + size
> pressing winners
$INTC example below.
Luc
We have a congregation of five planets and the Sun from late February into April! Mercury, Mars, Venus, Saturn, and Neptune will be closely grouped together in the sky, along with the Sun and the Moon whenever it goes through a new moon phase. Get ready!
I just published my most recent content.
https://t.co/yTDfT33MqM
This covers the upcoming rate decision, health of the current trend, several unique sentiment measures, insight into Sept seasonality, updated dates of interest, and several individual opportunities.
$SPY $BTC $VIX $GLD $HGER $SDCI $IBIT $IPKW $FRDM $PPLT $FFIV $KLAC $PWR $AME $IHS $CRC $RKLB $WGMI $EOSE
Margo Amala’s AI generated notes from the latest Financial Astrology Forum ✨📊
Big thanks to @MarsilioMusing for organizing the AI notetakers!
If you missed the forum follow the 🧵to find the replay link!
@Astrotherapist1@HamSunilHai Hi Miss Priyanka, I'm a new follower and I find your statements very intriguing. I am curious about the gold/silver market for safe haven from the upcoming negative events. Please share your thoughts. Thank you.
For anyone wrapping your mind around financial astrology - here is a list of the house correlations to Economic Sectors from one of my favorite Interpretive Financial astrology books: Time & Money by Barbara Koval.
My target was $100k on BTC reached near 11/22/24 when HELIO Mercury Ingress Taurus... $98,100 right now... getting close! Once HELIO Mercury Ingress Taurus I will take some profits and wait patiently to add again for a pullback into early December👀
Just read my notes from the previous financial astrology space with @margo_amala , who invited me, and @MarsilioMusing , who yesterday asked me about my predictions there.
🤯These were my predictions🤯
🥳✔️”I expect August to give us the last major cycle lows before the parabolic bull run,
🥱which should last until at least the end of January."
🥳✔️"My eclipse fractal suggests a bottom on August 6 and 7." […] ”You can see that the last pivots came a few candles earlier. So, this double bottom could be August 5 and 6 too."
🥳✔️"I expect a very bullish September (no Rectember)."
🥱"My calculations for BTC show that a parallel to the 2019-2020 cycle would place the blow-off top around February 3, and a parallel to the 2016-2017 cycle would put it approximately on January 27."
🥱"250k by 2025"
🥳✔️means I nailed it and 🥱 means waiting ..
🧿
You can listen it (again) if you like or find everything on my timeline.
Big thanks to @margo_amala and @MarsilioMusing
If you haven’t caught the full interview yet, here’s a must-watch highlight.
Michael @Saylor lays out his full vision for Bitcoin, digital currencies, stablecoins, tokens, and building an ethical digital asset ecosystem. I did my best to summarize his views at the end.🔥