Bud Fox

I'm just Bud Fox... and as much as I wanted to be Gordon Gekko, I'll always be Bud Fox.

[Bud Fox @BudFoxAIM]

@baroninvestment Thanks for posting your research on this one Baron, certainly helped me make up my mind..

[Jim Chimirie 🇬🇧 @JChimirie66677]

Agenda 2030 Or The Defence Of The Realm. Starmer Has Made His Choice. John Healey Has Resigned Over It.

This morning Britain woke up without a Defence Secretary. By lunchtime it knew why.

The numbers tell the story precisely. The Ministry of Defence faces a £28 billion funding shortfall over four years. Healey wanted £18 billion. He was offered £13.5 billion of which defence chiefs regarded only £10 billion as real money. The remaining £3.5 billion was, in the words of the Telegraph, invented through magical accounting tricks. The Chief of the Defence Staff, Sir Richard Knighton, took the unusual step of writing directly to Starmer to warn that the money was not enough. The head of the British armed forces writing directly to the Prime Minister is not a routine communication. It is a signal of desperation.

Starmer told NATO last week that it is our intelligence assessment that there could be an attack by Russia on NATO as soon as 2030. Those are his words. His government's assessment. Shared with our allies. Four years away. And his Treasury offered the man responsible for defending against that threat an accounting trick and a two page summary instead of a funded plan. Why. Because the money was needed elsewhere.

In 2015 every United Nations member state including Britain signed the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Its 17 goals and 169 targets commit signatory nations to facilitating migration, eliminating inequality, achieving net zero and embedding inclusive institutions. No British parliament voted on it. No British public was consulted. It was adopted at a UN summit and has been implemented ever since through regulatory frameworks, public sector guidance and institutional capture rather than democratic mandate. It is not a conspiracy. It is a publicly available document on the UN website. And its priorities, net zero, welfare, migration, DEI, are precisely the budgets this government has protected while offering the defence of the realm an accounting trick.

Ed Miliband refused to cut his net zero budget to fund defence. The Labour Party refused to cut welfare spending that would have freed up billions. The £10 billion in asylum accommodation contracts continues. The DEI infrastructure embedded across British policing, the NHS, the civil service and the education system continues to be funded. Every one of these is a commitment that takes precedence over the defence of the realm in this government's spending decisions.

The hierarchy of priorities is now visible. A government that has spent two years embedding progressive transformation across British institutions, protecting the net zero agenda from cuts and managing mass migration has discovered that it cannot simultaneously do all of that and defend the country. When the moment of decision arrived the progressive agenda was protected and the armed forces were handed a two page summary and told to make do.

Lord Robertson, the former Labour Defence Secretary and NATO Secretary General, warned in April that Britain was underprepared, underinsured and under attack. He said there was a corrosive complacency in Britain's political leadership. The army has been reduced to its smallest size in 200 years. Seven warships have been axed. The Defence Investment Plan was due last autumn, delayed through winter, missed its spring deadline and has now produced the resignation of the Defence Secretary on the day it was finally meant to be published.

Healey's letter says without a plan that meets the moment he is being forced to make decisions that would reduce the readiness of our forces, increase the risk to personnel on operations and could make the country less safe. He had no other option but to resign.

In the most dangerous security environment since the Cold War a Labour government has chosen the globalist agenda over the defence of the realm. That choice has now cost it its Defence Secretary. The question is what it will cost the country.

[Bud Fox @BudFoxAIM]

@MBdaytrading Thoughts on #SFOR now MB? I’m watching but think it could drop more..

[Bud Fox @BudFoxAIM]

@surprised_trade Also both back into at #ITH at 225p a few days ago.. 👍

[MB @MBdaytrading]

When SQM the world’s largest lithium producer backs your drill programme, you pay attention.
Andrada Mining has just completed 143 drill holes at Lithium Ridge, Namibia. 3.02% Li₂O hits from surface. Tin and tantalum in the same pegmatites.
85% of assays incoming. Newsflow just getting started.
#ATM #AIM #Lithium #CriticalMinerals

[Aston Girl @reb40]

#CHRT Cohort shareholders will be happy this morning to see my favourite expression, ahead of expectations 👍

Acquisition EM Solutions doing the heavy lifting

Record order book but cash slightly behind due to some receipt delays (received instead in May)

Well done to holders

[Bud Fox @BudFoxAIM]

@baroninvestment It’s had a well needed rest, onwards soon I think.. #SYNT

[Bud Fox @BudFoxAIM]

Recent buy #AT breaking out. Was tipped by @shiftingshares this week as well..

[Bud Fox @BudFoxAIM]

@Ronmarkets Was looking at this 2 weeks ago as undervalued.. didn’t buy though 😩

[Prof. Steve Keen @ProfSteveKeen]

With fertilizer, this planet feeds 8.5 billion people.

Without it, we can feed around 2 billion.

We have just disrupted 30% of global fertilizer supply through the Strait of Hormuz. And people are still talking about this as if it is an oil story.

It is not an oil story. It is a food story. And the numbers do not care about politics.

Watch the full breakdown: https://t.co/uoO29ao98F

#FoodSecurity #Fertilizer #StraitOfHormuz #GlobalFoodCrisis #SteveKeen #Economics

[Bud Fox @BudFoxAIM]

Today took a new position in #WYN
Ag commodities breaking out, expecting an agriculture bull market this year. I think Wyn could be very well positioned, they’re a well run company paying 5% divi, I think profits balloon this year. Happy to hold this for the foreseeable….

[Bud Fox @BudFoxAIM]

Bought #AT Ashtead Technology. Can see them doing a similar run as 2023-24 and getting into the FTSE250.

[Bud Fox @BudFoxAIM]

Bought into #synt early doors in the low 70s. Sold some oil holdings recently, looking for other sectors that could do well out of the Middle East war… I know @baroninvestment is in this too…

[Bud Fox @BudFoxAIM]

Bought back into #CAML today, copper looking like it could break out…

[Bud Fox @BudFoxAIM]

@2147mill Cash

[JH @CRUDEOIL231]

I feel like the oil market has already crossed the point of no return, regardless of how this war plays out.

At first this wave just swallowed up everything East of Suez. We saw force majeures popping up all over Asia and premiums going through the roof.

But now the Atlantic wall has officially crumbled. Only oil nerds like us are checking this stuff lately, but seriously—just look at the North Sea Platts window and the USGC diffs.

This is nowhere near normal. I know some ppl are getting all hyped up every time a single Handy tanker or LPG carrier squeaks through Hormuz, even claiming there’s a secret fleet of tankers slipping through.

I highly doubt it. If supply was actually fine, Atlantic physical diffs wouldn't be screaming like this. These numbers only happen when you're hitting a massive supply shock.

Like some of smart guys have noted, once you pass a certain threshold, it doesn't even matter if Hormuz reopens—the logistical bottlenecks will make it impossible to absorb the shock anytime soon.

I’m pretty sure we’ve already crossed that line.

#oott #iran

[Bud Fox @BudFoxAIM]

@Trader__007 Been watching for a while, ceo back, his last watch coincided with sp increase. Not buying yet..

[Bud Fox @BudFoxAIM]

Portfolio has gone through a complete rejig the past 2 weeks. Happy to be in 20% oil, a bit of metals and defence, and 60% cash for the moment. I think the crash coming is going to be brutal….

[John Ʌ Konrad V @johnkonrad]

Let's unpack this..

What if the White House has no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz?

What if this war is really about ships & tariffs?

I had a long discussion with senior DOE official yesterday on background. I can’t share any details but it’s clear everyone’s Strait of Hormuz calculus is wrong.

We need to go back to the drawing boards.

That's it. That's the tweet. Now a hypothetical 🧵 with my personal thoughts.