BREAKING: Bitcoin reclaims $60,000 after Kevin Warsh signals inflation risk is easing.
Bitcoin is up 3%, adding $36 billion to its market cap.
Ethereum is up 3.30%, adding $6.6 billion to its market cap.
The crypto market has added $50 billion in the last 90 minutes.
There will be years when nothing works out
Then there will be a random month that will change your entire life.
Never stop believing in crypto.
4 weeks of a bull run can erase the pain of a 4-year bear market.
🚨 THE US SENATE JUST UNBLOCKED THE CRYPTO MARKET STRUCTURE BILL.
And crypto platforms just lost the right to pay users interest on stablecoins.
Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks finalized a bipartisan deal yesterday on stablecoin yield, the single issue that had blocked the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act for months and collapsed a Senate Banking Committee markup in January.
Here is what the deal actually says.
Crypto companies are now broadly prohibited from offering stablecoin rewards that are "economically or functionally equivalent to the payment of interest or yield on an interest bearing bank deposit."
In plain, if a crypto platform offers users 4% just for holding a stablecoin, that is now banned. It is too close to a savings account and banks fought hard to stop it.
But the deal does not ban everything.
Platforms can still reward users for actually doing things trading, staking, using services. Activity based rewards are allowed. Passive yield on just holding a stablecoin is not.
The negative side for crypto is clear. Platforms like Coinbase had been pushing hard to offer yield on stablecoins as a way to compete with traditional savings accounts.
Banks argued that if Coinbase could offer users 4% on dollar pegged tokens just for holding them, nobody would keep money in a checking account. That deposit flight argument won.
Crypto platforms lose one of the most powerful tools they had to attract and retain users.
The positive side is also real.
This deal removes the single biggest substantive obstacle to the Clarity Act moving forward. For the first time the US crypto industry has a credible signal that Washington is going to give digital assets a comprehensive legal framework.
Every exchange, stablecoin issuer and digital asset platform operating in America has been waiting for this since the last bull market. Prediction markets are currently pricing the odds of the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 at 62%.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has described passage as a spring 2026 target.
The Senate Banking Committee markup is now expected in May.
Banks got what they wanted on yield. Crypto got the regulatory clarity it has been lobbying for.
Neither side got everything. But the bill is moving and that alone is the biggest development the crypto industry has seen in years.
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🚨BIG WEEK FOR CRYPTO HOLDERS
A lot of major events are hitting the markets at once, and this could cause a lot of volatility.
1) US-Iran negotiations
Today, Iran sent a new proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz and end the war.
President Trump is set to hold a meeting today to discuss negotiations.
Any signs of resuming US-Iran talks will be a good sign for the markets.
2) BOJ decision
On Tuesday, the BOJ will announce its interest rate decision.
The market expects a rate pause, so the forward guidance is the most important.
After the Hormuz blockade, inflation has started to move up in Japan.
Any signs of BOJ tightening in the future will cause sellers to front-run.
And if BOJ thinks inflation will be short-lived, markets could pump.
3) Fed decision
On Wednesday, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision, which will most likely be a pause.
The important thing here will be Powell's press conference, as inflation has spiked a lot since the last Fed meeting.
Also, it'll most likely be the last FOMC meeting for Powell as a Fed chair.
4) Earnings report
Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Apple will report their earnings this week.
These 5 companies account for over 25% of the entire S&P 500, which is a huge deal.
If they report strong earnings, it'll be a sign that consumers are still spending and the economy is in good condition.
If they report bad earnings, it'll be bad for the stock and crypto market.
5) ISM PMI
US ISM PMI for April will be released on Friday.
The last 3 ISM PMI prints were above 52, which is a sign of economic expansion.
If another such print happens, it'll show that the US economy isn't slowing down despite the war.
Historically, if ISM PMI has stayed above 52 for long, it has resulted in a parabolic crypto move.
Conclusion
This week is packed with major data, which means volatility could be extreme.
Don't use leverage, and keep my notifications on to get the update in real-time.
🇮🇷 🇺🇸 JUST IN: Iran has offered the US a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war while pushing to postpone nuclear negotiations to a later stage, Axios reports.