On this day in 1982, Larry Walters tied 45 weather balloons to a lawn chair and expected to float 30 feet.
He hit 16,000.
Larry had an exit plan — a pellet gun to shoot the balloons on the way down. Then he dropped his glasses and got too scared to pull the trigger.
That’s the part everyone laughs at, but also the lesson.
An exit you’re too afraid to execute isn’t an exit. It’s a hope.
Larry drifted into LAX airspace with airline pilots reporting a man in a patio chair at cruising altitude. He didn’t plan to be there. Nobody who blows through their risk limit ever does. The position just kept going, and going, and by the time he understood the situation, he was somewhere no lawn chair belongs.
He finally fired, cut a few balloons, and came down into power lines.
I’ve watched investors do the exact same thing for nearly 30 years. They size the position wrong, the trend runs further than they ever imagined, and the exit they swore they’d take sits in their hand like a pellet gun they’re too scared to shoot.
Define the exit before liftoff. Size it so you can pull the trigger with your hands shaking.
Larry survived. Most portfolios that fly that high without a working exit don’t.
$GE will be closing at new ATHs this month and up +918% in 4 years into top of a 37yr channel range.
Why is this significant?
This channel is includes some key levels in stock market history:
Sept 2000 Market top
March 2009 Market bottom
May 2020 Market bottom
My favorite line from Atomic Habits has been living in my head rent-free:
“It doesn’t make sense to continue wanting something if you’re not willing to do what it takes to get it. If you don’t want to live the lifestyle, then release yourself from the desire. To crave the result but not the process is to guarantee disappointment.”
I'm a cardiologist. After 40, stop guessing about your health. These numbers tell you whether you're building a long, vibrant life — or quietly declining without knowing it.
I run these on myself. I run them on every patient I care about. Most are cheap bloodwork. All are available now. And together, they paint a picture no standard annual physical will ever give you. Print this. Bring it to your next appointment. Your 60-year-old self will thank you.
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𝗙𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝘂𝗹𝗶𝗻
Target: below 5 μIU/mL. Ideal: 3-4.
This is the 10-year warning bell your standard panel completely misses. Your glucose and A1c can look "normal" for a decade while your pancreas is working overtime to keep them there. Fasting insulin catches insulin resistance 5-10 years before your A1c moves. By the time A1c rises, the damage is already extensive.
𝗛𝗢𝗠𝗔-𝗜𝗥
Target: below 1.0.
Calculated from fasting insulin and fasting glucose. The single best measure of insulin sensitivity. Above 1.0 and your metabolism is already under strain. Above 2.5 and you're insulin resistant — even if every other number looks fine.
𝗛𝗯𝗔𝟭𝗰
Target: below 5.4%.
Not below 5.7% — that's the threshold where medicine calls you "prediabetic." By then you've been metabolically compromised for years. Optimal is below 5.4%. Blood sugar mastery is longevity mastery.
𝗧𝗿𝗶𝗴𝗹𝘆𝗰𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗲 : 𝗛𝗗𝗟 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼
Target: below 2. Ideal: below 1.
Your metabolic health crystal ball. This ratio predicts insulin resistance, cardiovascular risk, and metabolic syndrome better than any single lipid number alone. A ratio above 3.5 is a red flag regardless of what your total cholesterol says.
𝗔𝗽𝗼𝗕
Target: below 80 mg/dL for moderate risk. Below 60 for high risk.
I've written about this extensively. ApoB counts every atherogenic particle hitting your artery walls. A 2024 analysis found 54% of patients had dangerous levels that standard LDL testing completely missed. If you only know your LDL, you're driving with one eye closed.
𝗟𝗽(𝗮)
Test once in your lifetime.
100% genetic. 1 in 5 Americans are elevated. Triples heart attack risk independently of everything else on this list. Diet and exercise cannot lower it. The 2026 ACC/AHA guidelines now recommend everyone be tested. Most never have been.
𝗵𝘀-𝗖𝗥𝗣
Target: below 1.0 mg/L.
You can have perfect cholesterol and inflamed arteries silently preparing to rupture. hs-CRP measures the fire behind the plaque. The JUPITER trial proved that finding and treating inflammation saves lives — even when lipids look fine. If this number is elevated, your mouth, your gut, your metabolic health, and your visceral fat are the first places to investigate.
𝗩𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗺𝗶𝗻 𝗗
Target: 50-80 ng/mL.
Not the bare minimum of 30 your doctor accepts. Suboptimal vitamin D is linked to higher inflammation, weaker immunity, increased cardiovascular events, worse mood, and poorer outcomes across nearly every disease I treat. Supplement D3 with K2 — without K2, calcium deposits in your arteries instead of your bones.
𝗧𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗲 (𝗧𝗼𝘁𝗮𝗹 + 𝗙𝗿𝗲𝗲)
Men: optimal range 600-1000+ ng/dL total.
Declining testosterone is an independent predictor of cardiovascular death in men. It's tied to insulin resistance, arterial stiffness, visceral fat accumulation, and systemic inflammation. DHEA-S drops 10-20% every decade after 30. Tracking these isn't about vanity — it's evaluating your body's systemic resilience.
𝗕𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲
Target: below 120/80. Aim closer to 110/70.
Every point above optimal is cumulative arterial damage. Buy a home cuff. Measure morning and evening, seated quietly for five minutes, arm at heart level. White-coat readings in the office miss what's really happening. The smartest $40 investment in cardiac self-care.
𝗩𝗢𝟮 𝗠𝗮𝘅
Men over 40: above 40 mL/kg/min. Women over 40: above 35.
Cardiorespiratory fitness is the single strongest predictor of all-cause mortality — stronger than smoking, diabetes, or heart disease as individual risk factors. A landmark study in JAMA found that extreme fitness was associated with the lowest mortality with no upper limit of benefit. You can estimate VO2 max with a timed mile, a rower test, or a wearable. Get faster every year.
𝗡𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗳 𝗠𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀
Target: as few as possible.
Every medication you're on should be earning its place. I just wrote about five commonly prescribed drugs that do more harm than good with long-term use. Bring your full medication list to every appointment. Ask: "Do I still need this?" Deprescribing is one of the most powerful and underused tools in medicine.
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Thirteen numbers. Most available through cheap bloodwork and simple tests. Get them once or twice a year. Here's what I want you to understand: these numbers don't just tell you where you are. They tell you where you're heading. A fasting insulin of 8 today becomes diabetes in five years. An ApoB of 120 today becomes a heart attack in ten. An hs-CRP of 3 today means your arteries are inflamed right now — regardless of how healthy you feel. The standard annual physical checks a fraction of these. It was designed to find disease that's already there. This panel finds the disease that's coming — years before it arrives.
What gets measured gets improved. Optimize with the foundation I write about every week on this platform:
Zone 2 cardio plus resistance training 3-4 times per week. High-protein whole-food nutrition. Sleep 7-9 hours — non-negotiable. Morning sunlight. Stress management. And the targeted supplements I've covered in detail — creatine, magnesium, CoQ10, D3+K2, glycine, omega-3, psyllium husk.
The breakthroughs coming in the next decade — gene editing for cholesterol, cellular reprogramming, senolytics that clear senescent "zombie" cells driving inflammation and aging, GLP-1 drugs rewriting metabolic medicine — will be most powerful for people who've already built the metabolic foundation to receive them.
The future of medicine is personalized. But it starts with knowing your numbers today. Print this list. Book the bloodwork. Own the data. Prevention isn't passive. It's the most aggressive thing you can do for the decades ahead.
@jamesonhaslam You can do it. Best way to train your body to do new movements is to hit golf balls swinging at like 50 percent speed. Try it, you can feel so much more
@shawngorham The best way to build an enduring construction or home service company is through referrals. Heavy marketing and gouge pricing only gets you so far imo. Go a little above and beyond, providing excellent work/service and your customers do the marketing for you
@BarryRoland19 Tankless electric water heaters use a lot of electricity, more than the standard 30a for a tank. This should be on the approved set of plans, especially in a MF situation where the main service or sub feeders are being sized according to demand factors and appliance ratings.
Good morning my loves, happy Saturday. Sorry I've been quiet, obviously been busy, but thought it'd be nice to give you all the details on the multi-strategy absolute return program that experienced the 28% drawdown this year. (1/n)
I wrote a paper in 2017 called, "Forecasting a Volatility Tsunami." I haven't talked about it in a while, but worth mention again today. (you can google the title to read).
I'll be writing more the $VIX this weekend in the Thrasher Analytics letter.