Burgowicz

[Dividendology @dividendology]

The biggest crashes in market history:

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The AI revolution needs more funding:

Net equity issuances are estimated to rise to ~$200 billion in 2026 and surge +500% YoY in 2027, to ~$1.2 trillion, according to JP Morgan.

This includes IPOs, secondary offerings, and other share sales after accounting for buybacks.

Combined, this would be the largest 2-year period of net stock issuance since at least the late 1990s.

This marks a sharp reversal from ~$12 trillion of shares repurchased in the previous 20 years, shrinking the available stock supply consistently each year.

The surge is being driven by SpaceX's, $SPCX, $85.7 billion IPO, the largest in history, alongside upcoming mega IPOs from OpenAI and Anthropic.

At the same time, Alphabet, $GOOGL, Meta, $META, and Oracle, $ORCL, are expected to raise hundreds of billions in secondary share offerings to fund their AI spending plans.

We are about to witness a historic wave of US equity issuance.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Global capital markets are incredibly hot:

Companies have raised a record $4.7 trillion in equity, corporate debt, and bank loans so far this year.

This marks the 3rd consecutive annual increase for this point of the year.

Total capital raised is also running ~$500 billion above the 2021 post-pandemic financing boom.

The surge has been driven primarily by technology companies seeking to fund AI spending, alongside record debt issuance to finance AI infrastructure.

Furthermore, investment-grade private credit issuance is not included in these figures, despite playing an increasingly important role in financing data centers, semiconductors, and power plants supporting the AI buildout.

Investors are pouring money into AI an unprecedented pace.

[Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook]

"Tech +tech related stocks are now close to 2/3rds of US total market cap ... Meanwhile defensives are phasing out to obscurity, and traditional cyclicals (materials, industrials, energy, financials) are likewise languishing."

@Callum_Thomas @topdowncharts

[Rand Group @randgroup]

Every SpaceX employee who got paid in stock since 2006 is staring at this exact schedule right now.

20% of the float unlocks Aug 11, the 100% by Dec 9. Will they hold?

[Lance Roberts @LanceRoberts]

This makes complete sense, as the Citi Surprise gauge is just a measure of whether economic data exceed economists' expectations. Economists tend to be slow to adjust their outlooks in response to actual economic changes. It suggests we could be in for a bit of rough slogging coming up, though.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Technology CapEx spending is exploding:

The CapEx-to-Sales ratio of developed market tech firms is up to a record 11.5%.

Over the last 2 years, this percentage has risen +4 points, far outpacing any other 2-year increase in history.

To put this into perspective, the previous peaks seen in the 1990s and early 2000s were at 9.0% and 8.5%.

By comparison, the developed market excluding tech CapEx-to-Sales ratio stands at just 7.0%, below its own long-term average.

The AI buildout is also driving investment spending higher in other sectors, with utilities now leading at a CapEx-to-Sales ratio of ~23%, well above its long-term average of ~15%.

The AI investment boom is reshaping capital allocation across the entire economy.

[Investment Wisdom @InvestingCanons]

One of an investor’s biggest assets is humility.

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

That great sucking sound is momentum and the valuation vacuum it is leaving behind

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

JUST IN: Record 6% of savers tapped their 401(k)s for hardship in 2025.

The rate has tripled in four years.

[JTheretohelp1 @JTheretohelp1]

Looking back over market history, we've NEVER seen this level of supply hit the markets. Ever!

And as Bloomberg so aptly points out, "The real test isn’t the debut, it’s whether the market can keep absorbing that much new paper over the coming months."

Source: JP Morgan

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Someone did the math. May want to rerun the IRR on that $5 trillion in capex stat...

[Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon]

.@Gavekal: “between 1996 and 2000, US telecom companies spent roughly US$500bn on internet and broadband infrastructure, or US$930bn in inflation-adjusted terms. Today’s AI capex boom is…roughly equal to 7x the internet capex boom.”

[JTheretohelp1 @JTheretohelp1]

Valuation Update

The indicator in the chart below is based on a wide array of valuation measures, including the P/E ratio, the price to book ratio, EV/EBITDA, and return on equity, and others.

It just exceeded the previous high it made in January.

Source: Bloomberg

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Insanity: with a market cap of $2.96 trillion, SpaceX just passed Microsoft to become the 4th largest company in the world.

Microsoft Sales: $318 billion
Microsoft Net Income: $125 billion

SpaceX Sales: $19 billion
SpaceX Net Income: -$9 billion

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

The popular joint supplement glucosamine has been linked to a 25% faster progression from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer’s disease.

A major new study published in Nature Metabolism has revealed a concerning association between glucosamine, a widely used over-the-counter supplement for joint pain, and accelerated cognitive decline. Researchers at the University of Florida analyzed 12 years of electronic health records and found that patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) who regularly took glucosamine were 25% more likely to progress to full Alzheimer’s disease compared to non-users.

The risks extended further: among individuals already diagnosed with dementia, glucosamine use was associated with a 25% higher mortality risk. Scientists believe the supplement may worsen the condition because glucosamine readily crosses the blood-brain barrier and fuels an overactive “sugar-tagging” (hyperglycosylation) pathway in vulnerable brains, aggravating metabolic dysfunction.

Importantly, this risk appears to be specific to people whose brains are already undergoing neurodegeneration. In healthy individuals, some earlier research has actually suggested potential protective effects. However, with tens of millions of people — many of them older adults — taking glucosamine for joint health, these findings highlight the need for caution and further clinical trials.

[Hawkinson, T. R., Gentry, M. S., & Sun, R. et al. (2026). Hyperglycosylation is a metabolic driver of Alzheimer’s disease. Nature Metabolism. DOI: 10.1038/s42255-026-01538-4]

[Investment Wisdom @InvestingCanons]

Howard Marks:

“The most important single indicator is to understand whether the market is currently being driven by optimism or pessimism.”

Marks explained this indicator is most relevant for the intermediate term, or the “next 2-to-4 years.”

“Everything else being equal, when it’s driven by optimism, you get higher prices relative to intrinsic value, which implies lower returns relative to the average.”

So where does the stock market stand today?

“I think there’s no arguing that for the most part, I’ll say since October the 1st of 2022…which is when the Fed turned more dovish…optimism has been in the ascendancy.”

“Optimism is what permits things like the IPOs we’re looking at…And the stock market has well more than doubled over that period, the S&P 500.”

How investors should act:

“You have to recognize the ascendancy of optimism and you have to behave accordingly. Part of that means with everything you do, some part of [you] has to be saying: ‘Yes, but how do we prepare for less optimistic times?’”

[Tracy Alloway @tracyalloway]

If you looked closely at last week's flow of funds data (as @bespokeinvest did) you can see there's a big change taking place in the US economy.

It's leveraging up again.

https://t.co/TJUXKL3Doz

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: Pentagon announces it has transitioned over two-thirds of its daily AI workflows off Anthropic to rival AI vendors.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Inflation concerns among US consumers are intensifying:

~38% of Americans now perceive inflation as a greater risk than unemployment over the next year, the highest proportion since March 2025.

This percentage has risen +13 points over the last 2 months, the biggest 2-month increase in at least 2 years.

By comparison, 48% of consumers perceived inflation as a higher risk in July 2024.

At the same time, only ~5% see unemployment as a greater risk than inflation over the next year, the lowest reading in at least 2 years.

This brings the gap up to 33 percentage points, the widest since February 2025.

Inflation remains a major issue for US households.