BREAKING: Iran is reportedly threatening further escalation after today’s strikes on its energy infrastructure, with a source close to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf claiming Tehran is prepared to expand its response beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
Separately, a tanker caught fire northeast of Oman’s Masirah Island, prompting a crew evacuation and a joint response by Omani and Indian authorities. Footage circulating online appears to show the vessel ablaze.
The oil market is so, so F*CKED.
1. Let's start with the obvious: Hormuz very shut, barrels have not been flowing.
2. The cavalry isn't coming: US rig count is effectively flat. Nobody is rushing to add supply, as the market narrative remains: the war ends soon.
3. Cushing is within a stone throw of being empty. 2 numbers matter at Cushing 70mb (full) and 20mb (empty). When it hit 70 in 2020, WTI went negative. When it will hit 20 in June, WTI will skyrocket. I wrote and spoke about this yesterday.
4. Managed money is barely long. There is no speculative money propping up the price of oil right now. When it piles in, it will add fuel to the fire.
@gnoble79
JPMorgan just drew a line no analyst wants to talk about.
Global oil inventories collapsing to 7,450 mb by July 2026.
Lower than every single year since 2017.
One question: Are you positioned for what comes next? 👇
Jeff Currie, former Goldman Sachs head of commodities and now at Kalo writing research, is watching a physical supply shock in the commodities market.
This is a tale of two markets.
Paper crude oil was sitting around $100 a barrel while physical crude being delivered into Asia was trading between $130-$170. Products like jet fuel were spiraling above $200.
The spread between paper and physical has completely disconnected.
On the physical side: a discount airline out of London Gatwick canceled all flights because they couldn't source fuel. The UK just took its last known kerosene shipment with no further arrivals scheduled. Singapore jet fuel spiked to $230 a barrel. Rotterdam hit $220. The shortage is now in Thailand, Philippines, New Zealand and Australia.
Currie called it "molecular contagion."
And here's the critical point: there is no policy fix for this. The supply shock is roughly equal in magnitude to the COVID demand shock. And we all watched what COVID did to global supply chains.
Currie's framing: the paper markets have disconnected from reality. When crude is trading at $100 on NYMEX but delivering into Asia at $130-170, someone is wrong. He thinks it's the paper market.
The mispricing window doesn't stay open forever.
For macro investors, this is exactly the kind of dislocation between financial prices and real-world supply chains that historically creates the biggest moves.
Behind-the-scenes core shed sneak peek 👀
Our Managing Director, Andrew Dornan, takes us inside the core shed at our Maverick Silver Project in Nevada for a first look at what’s coming out of the ground at site.
Take a look below 🔍
⚠️Energy crisis 3.0
Inventories are rapidly running down, ‘tank bottoms’ will be seen in next few months.
We are about to fall off an energy cliff.
Australia 🇦🇺 is likely to be one of the first developed countries to experience a fuel shock.
https://t.co/9yFm9uwyQJ…
Thar she blows!💣💥🎆😲 May 2026 month-end #Uranium prices are out📨 with #Nuclear fuel consultants UxC raising their base Long-term contract price by +$3 to $93⏫💲📜 and TradeTech by +$2 to tie the May 2007 to March 2008 all-time high of $95/lb #U3O8!⏫🌋😊
Cameco will soon report its May Long-term price at the UxC/TradeTech Average Up +$2.50 to a new 18-year high of $94.🚀🌟👀
TradeTech's Spot Conversion price rose +$1 to a new all-time high of $65⏫🌋 with Long-term holding at its all-time high of $55.🌟
TradeTech's Spot enrichment SWU remained at its $200 all-time high🌟 while Long-term SWU rose +$3 to a new all-time high of $180⏫🌋😊
Inflation is also pushing up the incentive price to bring on new mined supply📈💲🏭👨🏭 with TradeTech reporting a +$2.20 increase in their proprietary Production Cost Indicator (PCI) to $62.10 per lb.⏫🛢️☢️
All signs now point to higher prices coming🪧📶 which will drive a record Uranium bull market for the history books over the coming months and years.📈🚀🌜 Hope U have been loading up on the dip in U mining stocks.♈🛒😊
Back to my vacation.😎🥾🌍🍺 Wishing all of U the best of luck with your investments.🍀🌈💰🤠🐂
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth discusses the impact of the war in Iran on oil prices and global supplies and says the company would not consider paying a toll to traverse the Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/Jc5sh65tLc
Morning once again, FYI I have shared my #silver analysis link for your perusal please 🙏 much more practical, this is conceptual and experimental only DYOR on any investment ideas. Hope it provide some good insight, regards. 🫡..
thanks to #Claude
https://t.co/w1ReM8x1K2
Induced polarisation geophysics has pushed @ASX_TNC 's Aquila discovery another 500 metres north, growing the mineralised copper-silver-cobalt strike to more than 1.5km.
$TNC @smh
https://t.co/Z8OjmeqTjr
Welcome to the most asymmetric trade in modern financial history.
The thread below lays out why. The opportunity exists because capital has chased the AI trade while ignoring the physical assets AI requires to run — assets that have quietly become the best-performing asset class of the decade. Since October 2020 when we first called for the commodity super cycle: QCI Total Return +217%, GSCI Total Return +205%, Gold +140%. NASDAQ trails at +130%. S&P 500 at +85%. The top three are all commodities. Yet oil cannot get out of its own way while copper and the broader atom complex prints fresh highs . That is the dislocation. That is the trade.
Get long. Buckle in. Hang on for the ride.
Forgive the longer posts in this thread — attempting to mimic my old 10-bullet commodity takes. On to it.