Alan Oppenheim, MIT professor:
"Every trader alive uses a moving average. Almost none of them know it's a filter, and funds pay quants $600K for the version they were never taught."
a moving average is a filter. it smooths a jumpy price to reveal the slower signal hiding underneath. that is all it is, and it is the bluntest one there is. the same math gives you filters that lag less and cut more noise, and that gap is a real edge.
this is the second half of what Simons was doing. first you accept the market is a signal buried in noise. then you build the filter that reads it, and the moving average on your chart is the crudest possible version. Oppenheim builds the real ones at the board in this lecture.
here is the catch. a filter only helps if there is a real signal under the noise. smooth pure randomness and you will see a beautiful trend that means nothing. the filter is free. knowing there is a real signal worth filtering is the edge.
A marketing book from 1966 sells for $700 a copy while every coding skill from 5 years ago is worthless. The gap between those two facts is the most useful career insight you'll read this week.
Breakthrough Advertising by Eugene Schwartz sold a few thousand copies, went out of print, and never got updated. First editions now trade for $700+. The official reprint costs $125 with the original text untouched, and the "5 levels of awareness" Dan references here come straight from it. A 60-year-old book still runs the backbone of every funnel on the internet.
Same pattern everywhere you look. Maslow published the hierarchy in 1943. Cialdini's Influence came out in 1984 and has sold over 5 million copies. Aristotle wrote Rhetoric 2,300 years ago and law schools still assign it.
Now flip to technical skills. jQuery was a career in 2012. Objective-C mastery peaked in 2014. Prompt engineering went from $335K job listings to a solved problem in about 18 months. Each one depreciated the moment its underlying platform shipped an update.
Skills depreciate on the release schedule of their target. Technical skills target machines, and machines update yearly. Persuasion targets the human brain, which last shipped a major update roughly 50,000 years ago.
Every skill is a bet on the stability of its substrate. The brain is the only substrate with no roadmap.
Michael Saylor gave his updated Bitcoin price predictions:
• $150,000 by end of this year
• $1,000,000 over next 4-8 years
• $20,000,000 over next 20 years
Digital Credit Capital Framework
- Increased STRC dividend to 12%
- Guidelines for selling BTC
- Guidelines for cash reserve
- Guidelines for MSTR ATM
- Guidelines for buybacks of MSTR and STRC
Bravo 👏
[RG911Team] It’s basic physics.
Objects fall through the path of least resistance.
That’s why in this demolition, the top of the building fell on its side.
So why didn’t the top of the South Tower fall on its side on 9/11? How could it go through the greatest resistance - the 70 stories below?
They should make her VP of marketing A Florida woman was arrested after allegedly impersonating a Costco employee and turning an ordinary shopping trip into what witnesses described as a full-blown “warehouse happy hour.”
According to authorities, 32-year-old Brianna Keller walked into a Costco location in Tampa dressed convincingly enough to fool both shoppers and employees. Wearing black pants, a red polo shirt, and a fake name badge that read “Crystal — Beverage Team,” Keller reportedly stationed herself near the frozen food section and began offering customers tiny cups of tequila disguised as free product samples.
Investigators say the scene escalated quickly.
Using miniature ketchup cups typically reserved for condiments, Keller allegedly poured tequila shots for shoppers while pairing them with frozen appetizers and snack foods. Witnesses claimed she confidently explained that Costco was “testing a new customer experience initiative” and referred to the alcohol as part of a “weekend tasting event.”
Several shoppers reportedly believed the setup was legitimate.
“She was so confident that nobody questioned it,” one customer told local reporters. “She kept talking about flavor profiles like she actually worked there.”
Authorities say Keller became increasingly theatrical as the crowd grew larger. Witnesses described her leading chants of “Weekend mode activated!” while customers laughed, cheered, and continued lining up for more samples. At one point, shoppers were allegedly dancing near the mattress displays while holding condiment cups filled with liquor.
Employees reportedly became suspicious after noticing unusually large crowds gathering around the snack aisle and customers behaving noticeably louder than normal. Managers approached Keller after hearing her pitch what she called “Bottomless Sample Fridays” to confused supervisors.
The situation came to an end when store management contacted police.
Officers say Keller continued attempting to rally customers even as she was being escorted from the building, shouting, “WHO’S READY FOR ROUND TWO?” while several shoppers applauded the spectacle.
She was arrested on charges related to impersonation, disorderly conduct, and unauthorized distribution of alcohol.
No injuries were reported during the incident, though authorities confirmed the store temporarily shut down the sampling area while employees cleaned up the scene.
One shopper summed up the bizarre event by saying, “Honestly, for a minute I thought Costco was just evolving.”
@ZynxBTC Somehow managed to buy it last month at 171… more than 50% offside in a month… 😵💫
Feels bottomy - had people contact me today asking if there is a problem with MSTR
$BTC DAILY
Getting spicy.
If price ends the day here or higher, we will confirm massive bullish divergence coming out of oversold RSI.
We already have it on the weekly, for only the second time ever. RSI has only been oversold 4 times on the weekly, all cycle bottoms.
Bear euphoria. capitulation all over the timeline. Folks even calling for Saylor to be in jail.
And they can’t push bitcoin much under 60k - the same level it was at in February.
Bullish. 🚀
The most rational, complete assessment of $MSTR I have read.
Their entire capital structure is designed to avoid force-selling Bitcoin in bulk at a low.
So the stupidest and most unnecessary thing they could do would be force sell bitcoin in bulk at a low.
Any scenario where $mstr fails is one in which bitcoin, and everything else in crypto, has already has failed.
They can remain solvent FAR longer than the market can remain irrational.
MSTR Reality Check
Emotions are running high!
People are getting manipulated by all of the engagement farming FUD and for some reason think Saylor and Strategy are on the brink of some death spiral.
As per usual, these people don't do math. They just post a red chart with a doomer sentence for clicks.
If I remember correctly, MSTR survived 2022. Actually, I don't have to remember, because I can buy the stock today.
Let us compare it to the absolute depth of the 2022 bear compared to today.
On November 21, 2022, Strategy had 130,000 BTC.
Their outstanding debt (senior claims) was equivalent to 146,735 Bitcoin.
Yes, the amount of Bitcoin that MSTR shareholders were economically exposed to was NEGATIVE. -16,735 Bitcoin.
The senior claims left zero residual for the common stock, and yet the stock never went to zero. On that same day, the stock closed at $15.72. The common equity bitcoin exposure NAV per share was -$2.33.
Today, they have 847,363 Bitcoin, with senior claims in Bitcoin at ~351,567 BTC.
Yes, in 2022 the common equity was exposed to -16,735 BTC and now it is exposed to 495,796 BTC.
2022 common equity sats/share: −14,786 sats/share
2026 common equity sats/share: 138,146 sats/share
2022 common equity NAV per share: -$2.33
2026 common equity NAV per share: +$81.69
Yes, right now the stock is trading at $87.64 vs the NAV per share of $81.69.
That means the true CEBE mNAV is 1.07x, a 7% premium to the residual left over after senior claims.
Strategy has a balance sheet built for war.
This is a cake walk compared to 2022.