@teortaxesTex these people will unironically take pascal's wagers over and over. At least the theists have millenia of cultural background to build their biases on.
@_mattata Humans are not deterministic either, I've never really begrudged being surrounded by smarter people than I which I am eternally thankful for, even those who are not aligned to my goals or have even acted outright antagonistic, a sharper environement sharpens me.
Thanks for taking the time to lay out your thinking, I understand your estimate and your reasons for holding them even if I have a wildly more optimistic outset.
I truly believe that the people trying to pace and slow AI are either missguided or are seeking moats for their cultures and value systems which pushes me to the standpoint that spreading intelligence as far and wide as possible, infinite prisonner's dillema style.
I have had recent conversations with self avowed EA AI people who tell me that entering a global nuclear war is preferable to AI being built by china. I understand that they may be outliers but it really does not inspire confidence when people would take certain doom over probabilistic ones.
@Georgism@matthewktromp the thing is, without knowing your numbers, I cannot say whether or not we agree, at least on the pacing part. I don't think I'd ever agree with entering a war with china just because they are training llms.