The BIG MIRAGE- An unusual day given high yield spreads, MOVE index dropping, recent stabilization in Small-caps & positive market breadth (Percentage R3k above 20-day has nearly tripled in three wks.)
Equal-weighted S&P 500 ETF shown below.. now up more than 4% in the last 30 days. Understandably, not many care about the broader mkt and its all AI and TECH, but the POSITIVE divergence in $SPX, DJIA, RSP holding up today, Transports up +1.5%+ while QQQ broke makes for an interesting setup as Crude has shown 3 straight days of closing WELL off earlier peaks.
GL Indexes now supplies Global Liquidity data in all formats, building on the original CrossBorder Capital work. Watch for further announcements over coming weeks. We calculate and curate liquidity data across over 90 economies daily, weekly and monthly. Evidence our new range:
🚨JUST IN: Robinhood $HOOD falls more than 4% after hours despite record Q3 revenue.
Revenue rose 12% from a year earlier to a record $1.42 BILLION.
Meanwhile, it earned $0.51 per share, below the $0.56 analysts expected.
Crypto revenue fell 55% to $120 MILLION.
Prediction markets now bring in more, at $173 MILLION, up over 6x.
Is China hiding its true exposure to US Treasuries?
China’s Treasury holdings fell -$27 billion in August, to $591 billion, their lowest level since August 2008.
At the same time, Canada’s holdings of US Treasuries jumped +$38 billion in August, to $465 billion, their 3rd-highest on record.
Since the beginning of 2019, Canada’s holdings have surged +$369 billion, or +384%, while China’s have declined -$534 billion, or -48%.
This divergence may partly reflect China moving its US securities to foreign custodians, making its actual exposure to American debt appear smaller and creating the impression of faster financial decoupling from the US Dollar.
Meanwhile, Belgium and Luxembourg, widely believed to hold some Chinese Treasury assets through custodial accounts, increased their Treasury holdings by +$20 billion and +$6 billion in August, to all-time highs of $491 billion and $448 billion, respectively.
China’s diversification away from the US Dollar may be slower than it appears.
Good Morning from Germany, where Mercedes is also being hit hard by the China shock. It joins BMW & VW in cutting its outlook, now targeting a car margin of just 2–3%, vs up to 5% before. Shares tumble 5.4%, taking this year’s loss to more than a third. Germany’s Big Three are now worth just €106bn combined. Tesla alone is worth €1.4tn, more than 13 times as much. China, once their profit engine, has become a major liability.
Refiners are the new AI momentum stocks (or have been). But this will end badly. AI slowdown worries as the economy slows quickly with high rates, inflation, high gas/diesel will crush demand. Watch out. 20%-30% declines in these in the next 5 months. $MPC $VLO $PSX
My June public newsletter is now available:
https://t.co/q9AWNzBSmY
The issue focuses on defining and planning for the more multipolar and volatile world we have moved into.
Here's my case that the Bull Market could last till 2035.
No one knows for sure, and it's just another point of view that is subject to change.
But the less people talk about it, the better.
$SPX $DJI $NDX #Gold#Copper#Bitcoin