CFX

[CFX @CFX1412459]

@FroehlichThors1 911?

[CFX @CFX1412459]

👇📝this!

[Thorsten Froehlich @FroehlichThors1]

Consumer price inflation ultimately requires purchasing power chasing goods. Where real wages - nominal pay adjusted for inflation - are stagnant or falling (education and heakthcare), that purchasing power is absent, and the money supply can expand far more aggressively than the quantity theory would lead you to expect.

Productivity growth reinforces the effect: when output per hour rises faster than nominal pay, unit labour costs fall, and in competitive markets that pressure passes through into prices (falling).

The money does not vanish, however. It goes looking for a home, and it finds one. The real inflation of the past two decades has not taken place in the supermarket but in equity multiples and real estate - a monster that our price indices were never designed to see.

[CFX @CFX1412459]

@CryptoVisionXXX Thanks. I understood.

[CFX @CFX1412459]

@CryptoVisionXXX You think we are still in wave 1 of C and not at the end of wave 2 of C?

[CFX @CFX1412459]

@Bobby_1111888 John Templeton

[CFX @CFX1412459]

@FroehlichThors1 @TheBigCycleGame Would be interesting to know what AI is doing for you.

[CFX @CFX1412459]

@FroehlichThors1 💯

[CFX @CFX1412459]

👇📝

[Matthias @TheBigCycleGame]

WHAT I'M WATCHING FOR THE TOP | Part 2 | August 27, 2026

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Part 1 focused on traditional markets. Building on that, this looks at what a topping process there could mean for crypto and the timing between the two.

The working assumption stays the same: traditional markets are extending the final leg of their parabola, and once that target zone is reached, the cycle likely tops.

If that's correct, crypto should follow into its own top with a lag, not immediately, and not on its own separate timeline.

─────────────────

Quick note on timing so far.

The indices bottomed July 29 and started their move. Crypto didn't follow until August 19, three weeks later, by which point the S&P and Nasdaq were already inside their own wave two correction. That's a 19-day gap between the indices starting and crypto starting.

This actually tracks a scenario laid out back in May, using Bitcoin's 2017 cycle as the template. Back then, Bitcoin ran first inside its own parabola while altcoins, Total 3, moved slowly alongside it, only picking up real pace after a consolidation inside that parabola.

Comparing structures: Bitcoin's own build phase from mid-November to roughly December 10, 2017, where Total 3 crawled along quietly, mirrors what happened here between March 30 this year, when the indices broke out, and June 2, the interim top, plus the consolidation that followed into July 29.

Call that Phase 1. Crypto moved a little during that stretch and then corrected right alongside the indices, largely doing its own thing rather than tracking closely.

What started August 19, with the indices already building their second leg, is Phase 2. Crypto came in 19 days after that leg began, and this is the phase where the expectation is that crypto builds out its own first real leg higher, similar to how the indices ran between March 30 and June 2.

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Here's the part that matters most.

If the indices top out at the end of Phase 2, crypto likely follows into its own interim top shortly after, with some lag.

Phase 3 for the indices is where the first sharp, volatile leg of the correction hits, the A wave, and this is likely where risk assets broadly correct too.

But the more important part is what probably happens next: crypto likely uses the indices' B wave, the recovery bounce inside that correction, to complete its own final leg higher. That's the piece being tracked closely here, not the full ABC, just through the B wave, because that's the part that matters for this thesis.

Yesterday's post looked at several recent parabola corrections and found the window from top to B wave has consistently run somewhere around 20 to 30 days.

It's possible the same 19 days crypto took to start its second leg is roughly the same window it has left after the indices top, though that's not guaranteed, it could run a bit longer or shorter. What's clear either way: whatever time crypto has for this move is limited.

─────────────────

All of this sits inside the broader scenario that the indices are in their endgame. When that top actually arrives, it likely won't feel like one to most people, and won't be recognized as one in real time either. But the mechanics that follow, especially given how the underlying economic data looks right now, point toward the start of a genuinely large correction.

For now, the thesis holds up to this point: crypto started its move with a lag inside the indices' Phase 2, and should complete its first leg higher during that same phase.

When the indices move into Phase 3 and their correction begins, crypto should be working through the final stretch of its own move, most likely wrapping up around the indices' B wave. A window of 20 to 30 days looks realistic based on how rotation typically moves through a market, from mega caps into other sectors and finally into the smallest remaining pockets of risk appetite, though the exact length can't be pinned down in advance.

Phase 3 in particular is worth watching closely, because that's likely where sentiment shifts hardest. That's typically when index forecasts get even more aggressive, every dip gets bought without hesitation, fear largely disappears, and in crypto specifically, predictions tend to escalate right alongside statements like "we're still early."

Worth keeping in mind that crypto has room to run a bit longer than the indices, even while they're already correcting, and that window could end up shorter or longer than what's outlined here.

My own read is that the time available after the indices top isn't especially generous, but I could be wrong, and it's entirely possible more room and time opens up than expected.

Two things matter most from here: how the next structures build into the indices' actual top, and what sentiment looks like in the market, crypto in particular.

And practically, that means (for me) not waiting for the most bullish targets to take profit, but taking chips off the table gradually on the way up.

If this scenario holds, it should be clear to everyone that this crypto run is being built on very thin ice.

CIF: 83/90 — Warning Level Orange.

@TheBigCycleGame

Not financial advice. DYOR.

#Bitcoin #Crypto #DotcomFractal #Rotation #CIF #EndCycle #TheBigCycleGame

[CFX @CFX1412459]

@FroehlichThors1 As they said: make America great again 🫣

[CFX @CFX1412459]

@DefendDark @CryptoVisionXXX Whats your opinion regarding that wave count?

[CFX @CFX1412459]

@HenrikZeberg FED will cut, market is wrong.

[CFX @CFX1412459]

@HenrikZeberg Very cool, I'll subscribe.

[CFX @CFX1412459]

Damn, thats great work. 🔥

[Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg]

The economy is in "Contraction Phase" as according to the Business Cycle Model.

The best fit we have with all periods going 56 years back is "Q3 2007". Following are Q4 1999 and Q1 1990.

This is based on around 1 Million datapoints:
1) Position in the Business Cycle
2) Data on Valuation Levels, Government Debt, Labor Market, Housing Market, Credit Markets, etc.

No similarities to 2022, 2003, 1997 or 1977 or whichever year your main street Economists want to point to.

So - now your analysis on where to position and allocate your funds can begin based on KNOWLEDGE AND INSIGHTS driven by DATA.

Not on guesses, fancy theories or chit-chat!

#DemocratizeMacro

[CFX @CFX1412459]

@FroehlichThors1 Of course it was a joke, maybe the yes votes also.

[CFX @CFX1412459]

Send it 🚀🚀🚀

[Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg]

We are likely in the final explosive move higher - as called few days ago.

The rally can last a few months!

Watch the UPDATE here:
https://t.co/nItxK7DUnX

[CFX @CFX1412459]

@CryptoVisionXXX @FroehlichThors1 😂Ihr braucht dringend einen Altcoin Bullrun. Langsam hinterlässt die Zeit ihre Spuren.

[CFX @CFX1412459]

@CryptoVisionXXX @HenrikZeberg @FroehlichThors1 @TheBigCycleGame @Bobby_1111888 Sehe das auch als realistisch. Irgendwo zwischen 8-12k sollte ETH landen.
Was ist deine Meinung zur Zeit? Dieses Quartal?

[CFX @CFX1412459]

@CryptoVisionXXX Das ist verschwendete Energie.
Die halten alle an ihrem BTC Cheatsheet fest.

[CFX @CFX1412459]

@FroehlichThors1 But first BoT for risk assets. Dont think gov. bonds rally before.