My interview with Richard Moglen and TraderLion!
I rambled quite a bit but hope you get something out of it! Now open to watch for everyone.
https://t.co/NLy6SgqQZJ
🚨🌎 Lamine Yamal: "I don't care about how many goals I score. I'm not obsessing about that."
"First of all, they're [Mbappe, Messi & co] all at least 10 years older than me, and my style of play is different. I only want to win."
Very interesting day. VIX spiked enough for a short term low. T2108 is at levels somewhat close to the lows of a pullback but we are only a few % off all time highs. Short term breadth is close to bounce levels.
Concerned AI is blowing a bubble in $NDX $COMPQ
While there are narratives and analogues that prove a like path, analogues never speak to magnitude of the overall moves from price trends.
Trailing 3yr return 2022 - 2025 is +84%
Trailing 3yr return 1997 - 2000 was +166%
Going to have to change definition of a bubble if present day is a bubble.
$SPX $QQQ $SPY $NVDA $PLTR $TSLA $MSFT $ORCL
Note to myself:
Super performance doesn’t just come from the good trades you take.
It also comes from the discipline to avoid the trades that never should’ve been touched.
The impulsive setups, the forced entries, the trades that don’t fit your plan—they are the silent killers. Small losses stack. Confidence gets chipped away. Over time, they do more damage than one bad day ever could.
Most of the PnL comes from being in sync with the right stocks, the right sectors, the right moments. That’s where the edge lives. But if you let the “shitty trades” creep in, they dilute everything. They distract you from your real setups. They erode your conviction.
And too often, traders risk more on these poor setups than on their true A+ trades. That flips the whole game—underexposed on the winners, overexposed on the losers. That’s how edges die.
The realization is simple: greatness isn’t just built on the trades you take. It’s built on the ones you refuse to take.
Protect your edge. Protect your capital. Protect your confidence.
The trader you want to become lives on the other side of that discipline.
Some leaders continue but starting to see some failed break outs, volatile action in leaders and stocks losing the 20ema. NVDA RKLB BE TEM RDDT SE ALAB CRDO
It took nearly four years, but small caps finally made a new ATH
Second longest wait ever (4.7 years after tech bubble)
11 other times took more than a yr and 3 months later up nearly 8% on avg. A yr later up 13.3% on avg.
Yet another clue this bull market likely has legs.
Imagine a fully loaded 737 fully crashing every 48h, killing everyone on board.
That is how many people die in car crashes. If self driving cars were only 10% safer than humans they would still save many, many lives.
Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 up 9 consecutive sessions. 22nd occurrence since 1971. What do the quants inform?
18 of prior 21 occurrences (86% of time), Nasdaq was higher 9 and 12 months later.
Average return = +19%.
$SPX $NDX $QQQ $COMPQ $NYA $TQQQ $SPY
The Fed likely will cut rates with the S&P 500 within 2% of an ATH (based on the close the day before the cut).
Higher a year later 20 out of 20 times.
And yes, there was a cut in Oct '07 that was super close to triggering. Still, this doesn't appear to be bearish.
Stocks are hitting new all-time highs while angry Americans are out there red-faced, screaming at clouds. Markets are going up, but the Karens and the Chads are still somehow so angry. We love that. https://t.co/JftvWkWZFT
Just some thoughts to try help navigate the noise.
Seeing about of people post things like “best week of my life” and other saying it’s a reason to say we’ve topped or you should slow down.
If you’re following a system, process or edge whatever you want to call it then you’ve got confirmation it’s working and by no means should you alter your plan/style based on good results.
Last week liquidity flowed into names extremely well - price action reminded me of 2020 and believe me it can go on way longer than most think!
As always manage risk first, force NOTHING and don’t self sabotage there’s always another play.