A good ancestor; girl dad; author of ⛓ THE MACHINE MURDERS ⛓ books; e/acc on everything but literature. Novelist/Source Coder, Enterpreneur w/ Vesselfront.
LUXURY REAL ESTATE SUPERCYCLE
AI is going to take all the jobs. All that value is going to accrue to the AI labs, the build out, and diffusely to select businesses and investors -- this will be a highly wealth-centralizing event. K-shape etc. Thousands of new billionaires and trillionaires will be created.
Rich people spend money in very predictable ways. They buy a super nice house, and often another one on the beach. They are price insensitive on hotel spend. They fly private.
The most expensive real estate in the world is in 1) labor market cities (e.g. NYC, London) and 2) extremely beautiful places.
Labor market cities are about to be totally destroyed by the automation of the white collar labor market. Some will reinvent themselves as cultural hubs. Would you live in NYC with 50% unemployment? It was a nightmare when this was functionally the case during the early days of COVID.
So rich people will generally want to move to extremely beautiful places that are insulated from societal turbulence, assuming they get the value prop that enabled NYC to win: the highest density of interesting people in the world. The core questions is how to coalesce that network if not with a deep and liquid labor market.
One part of the answer is natural beauty / weather. Another is political and economic stability. But I believe the largest driver with be Cultural Output. Communities of the most talented creative people in the world are the "soft-product", subsidized by Aman-level houses in insanely beautiful places. Amazing visual art, parties, conversations -- this is what has historically driven Soho, Berlin, LA; at some level even Renaissance Florence and Ancient Athens.
Both these people and the locations are scarce, and as wealth is both created and transferred, their value will increase dramatically.
Institutions will capture and cultivate both the best land and creative talent in the world. Fund, perhaps fully run by AI; brands, with both legacy and design that meets the moment. Academies, museums, galleries, studios, nightclubs, restaurants, publishers, theaters, will drive insane economic value to be captured in land prices.
There is a robinhood element to this. The cash generated by selling the Aman / Discovery Land Co. style residences will generate the cash to fund the cultural output of thousands or perhaps millions of the most talented, often poor, young people in the world. Real estate developers will fund their own UBI (Art Grant) programs by capturing AI wealth via quickly-appreciating luxury real estate.
NYC land value is ~$3T. GDP is going to start doubling at some point, and so will that $3T, but if NYC melts down, there are massively underpriced assets that will capture that value and far more in the Singularity.
And btw no one in real estate, the largest asset class in the world, understands this.
@MeidasTouch Saying nothing, implying you know everything and that you actually have a plan for this nothing... people used to confuse this with statesmanship.
@retainermethod The greatest tragedy is for those who willingly chose the life of a thinker without being able to form even half a valuable thought in their lives.
Do it. And cut taxes. Fast. Or the EU will collapse.
"We must deregulate every sector. And I call for a regulatory clean slate. Minor corrections to laws are not sufficient. We need to systematically review the whole set of existing EU legislation."
Merz. European Industry Summit
Souvlaki vs Fish and Chips: Athens is starting to look a little more like a hedge fund hub. Millennium is joining Rokos in plans to open an office in Athens. Rahul Chopra, a London-based portfolio manager is among staff considering a move. https://t.co/ie428Zv115