CVC.ai

CFA. Debunked Bloomberg's $SMCI spy BS. $GME OG. Ran a $100M+ L/S solar book. Semicap & China enthusiast. Princeton. 1A fan. Value guy, buyer of last resort.

[CVC.ai @CVCResearch]

Quite the move in $ACLS / $VECO today - anyone know what's going on beyond the broad strength in semicap?

I'd posted a $VECO long pitch last month (tldr solid growth outlook, too cheap relative to comps):
https://t.co/IY93sisKXX

[CVC.ai @CVCResearch]

Blowing up my book in chinese internet 🥴
(up to a 2%+ weight now in $BIDU)

[CVC.ai @CVCResearch]

I keep buying $BIDU and it keeps going down

[CVC.ai @CVCResearch]

@kajakallas Anyone who believes this is almost certainly r*tarded

[CVC.ai @CVCResearch]

@BoxLongs It's still at over 6x CY27 Sales for no organic growth and huge cash burn. It's still ridiculous imho. This is a shtco that should be trading at 1x Sales or less 😁

[CVC.ai @CVCResearch]

$SOUN has been straight down since issuing shares to $LPSN debtholders on 9/4 - they've clearly been puking these shares

Shtcos gonna shtco🤷‍♂️

[CVC.ai @CVCResearch]

@MostlyPeaceful [Guy who's never read a book] The US once helped lefties win in Latin America

[CVC.ai @CVCResearch]

I keep buying $BIDU and it keeps going down

[CVC.ai @CVCResearch]

I have a loose thesis that aggressive buybacks can, and perhaps will, be the antidote that ails the China internet sector equities. I zero in on $BABA because they've already been putting their $20B+ in annual FCF to work by buying back ~$10B/yr over the last 2 years.

[CVC.ai @CVCResearch]

($BIDU cont)
$10B for core biz ($29/shr), it's declining so 3x '27 EBITDA
$18B for Cloud/AI biz ($52/shr), 3x '27 Sales for high growth & teens EBIT margins
$4B for Apollo self-driving ($12/shr)

Total = $88B, or $255/shr

Apply whatever discounts you like, this is undervalued

[CVC.ai @CVCResearch]

Tough month & quarter but onwards and upwards...
Sept (2.6%)
Q326 +0.3%
YTD +13.4%

[CVC.ai @CVCResearch]

🙏

[CVC.ai @CVCResearch]

1H26 +13.0%
Big contributions from semis, semicap, and tech hardware were partially offset by losses in software, hyperscalers, and China
Been broadly trimming semis/hw and adding to software; exposure to each bucket is now roughly similar w each at low 20s net % of portfolio

[CVC.ai @CVCResearch]

@unusual_whales "12-year"

[CVC.ai @CVCResearch]

Fairly mild reaction today IMO to $ACMR's once a year backlog disclosure of +88% y/y.

Consensus has revenue growing ~30% y/y in both CY26 & CY27, which feels quite low relative to backlog growth.

Stock is still down (36%) in Q3.

[CVC.ai @CVCResearch]

@ConsensusGurus was there some index rebalance today? why the wild moves on the close?

[CVC.ai @CVCResearch]

This announcement from $CMRC, and the implied EPS, just highlights how extraordinarily dumb it is for a SaaS name to trade at 0.5x EV/S...can always just run the PE playbook & cut your way to 30% bottom line!
https://t.co/PVplf0Zi1Y

[CVC.ai @CVCResearch]

Attn $CMRC board: it's time to put this thing up for sale.
You gave Travis a shot, and even tried a name change. Could have worked. Hasn't.
It's now time to reconnect with Qatalyst and put us all out of our collective misery.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.

[CVC.ai @CVCResearch]

Nice to see the $CMRC board finally waking up from their years long slumber 🥳

If we assume the $70M midpoint of cost cuts fully hit in '27 & flat revenue, they're looking at close to $1.00 in GAAP EPS!

Stock is still way too cheap & there's activist involvement now...

[CVC.ai @CVCResearch]

@AliR_Ahmadi

[CVC.ai @CVCResearch]

Penciling out something like $5+ in FY27 NG EPS based on ~$69B revenue midpoint and more normalized ~10.5% GMs

When $SMCI peaked at $100+ in FY24, they did $15B in revenue, ~$2 in EPS

In FY27, they'll do ~$69B in revenue, and perhaps $5 in EPS. Stock is now at $34...interesting

[CVC.ai @CVCResearch]

Implies >$1.50 in $SMCI quarterly EPS vs street at $0.71...so the stock is trading at just 5x RR EPS

no idea how GMs came in at 16% vs 8% guide, seems odd

[WOLF @WOLF_Financial]

BREAKING: SUPERMICRO $SMCI SAYS IT BOOKED MORE THAN $60B IN NEW ORDERS LAST QUARTER, ROUGHLY 5X ITS QUARTERLY REVENUE

The preliminary Q4 update cuts three ways:

- New orders: in excess of $60B in the quarter, pushing backlog to record levels, to be delivered over future quarters
- Gross margins: estimated 15%-17%, nearly double the 8.2%-8.4% guidance, on favorable customer and product mix
- Revenue: expected near the low end of the $11.0B-$12.5B guide

The read: fewer dollars shipped this quarter, much more profit per dollar shipped, and a demand pipeline far larger than current output.

Two caveats from the release itself:
- The figures are preliminary and unaudited, and the company notes some orders may not be firm commitments and can be canceled or delayed
- The board's previously disclosed independent review of alleged export-control issues could affect these results and prior periods

Full results land August 11.

[CVC.ai @CVCResearch]

$SPT could end up doing something like $100M+ in 2027 FCF w the benefit of $50M+ in cost savings from the July RIF. They also plan to start being active on the buyback. Stock is still only at ~1x Sales & ~6x EV/FCF on '27...still way too cheap despite the 100% rally off the lows

[CVC.ai @CVCResearch]

Anyone else think $SPT at 1.2x Sales for 10% top line growth, 10% FCF margins is really interesting? I get that all of software is a zero, but what if it’s not 🤔
I’ve been buying this one since November…

[P14 Capital @P14Capital]

$SPT +5.7% post-market on low volume. CEO buys $1M in shares. This comes after co-founder Aaron Rankin purchased $1M a few weeks ago. FWIW, my buyout bets post pitched $SPT as a prime 2026 buyout target and called for planned insider buys to act as a margin of safety 🤣🤣(which clearly has not been the case, still see SPT being bought out tho).

[CVC.ai @CVCResearch]

$SPT posted a modest beat/raise in Q126, but more importantly IMO, announced a $50M buyback (against a ~$450M mkt cap). At 0.75x EV/S & 6x EV/FCF on '26 for ~10% top line growth and margin expansion, this is way too cheap and it's good to see the company finally stepping up

[CVC.ai @CVCResearch]

@chamath rare chamath W