Coke Zero Drinker

[Justin 🏴 @justinsliao]

amazing read. short version: intelligence is getting commoditized. the returns sit with whoever owns the pipes it has to travel through.

summary below

[BLANEY @cryptoblaney]

The Binance hacker might have just pulled off one of the smartest moves I’ve seen in crypto.

First, Tether froze $1.5 billion in USDT.

Then Circle froze another $800 million in USDC.

At that point, it looked like the hacker’s money was trapped.

But apparently, he had already planned for that.

Instead of holding the stolen USDT in a wallet, he allegedly deposited it into Aave and used it as collateral to borrow ETH.

Then he walked away.

That’s where the story gets crazy.

Tether can freeze the USDT sitting in the wallet.

But it can’t freeze the ETH he already borrowed.

So now Aave is left holding frozen collateral, while the hacker is sitting on liquid ETH.

And unless the protocol can recover it somehow, he may not even need to pay the loan back.

Two companies froze billions of dollars in seconds.

But someone who understood how to use DeFi may have found a way around both of them.

Pretty insane when you think about it.

[Ava @noampomsky]

on loving SF 🤷🏻‍♀️

[Coke Zero Drinker @CZ_drinker]

@noampomsky is the book out?

[Coke Zero Drinker @CZ_drinker]

muse is more useful IRL than my clawdbot openclaw ever was.

my lil muse buddy got me 6-1 in fantasy

hit 3/3 afternoon parlays (nacua 6 + bowers 5, arsb 6 + kraft 4, mcbride 6 + sutton 3) catches

scored a chest freezer, rain catcher barrels, and leftover lumber off facebook marketplace.

[threadguy @notthreadguy]

i mean seriously what do you think people are using muse for

[Coke Zero Drinker @CZ_drinker]

two weeks on the china rules:

copper: two lower weekly closes. rule said don't add. didn't.

kweb: -7%. beijing let provinces draw 550b of unused quota and spending fell a seventh month. sprinkles. still not buying.

crude: short got stopped. not by china, by houthis hitting saudi. a stop doesn't ask why.
yuan: firmer, not breaking. alarm quiet.

grind case won. december meetings are the tell.

[Coke Zero Drinker @CZ_drinker]

everyone’s crying about the us 10y at 5%. meanwhile china’s bond yields are going the other way and nobody’s talking about it

falling yields there isn’t a flex. it’s deflation. property investment down 25%, home prices down again, 12.7m college grads walking into no jobs. people getting 5 yuan haircuts on the sidewalk lol

bear case: china’s broke. the provinces are bankrupt. they literally can’t pivot to the consumer

bull case: that’s LOCAL debt. beijing itself has some of the lowest debt in the g20, borrows at ~2%, and owns a ton of state companies. the money exists

so it’s not “can they.” it’s “will they.” and so far it’s been sprinkles, not a bazooka

i'm not front running it. if beijing actually drops a real one and china tech breaks out, i’ll chase. if the yuan cracks instead, everything china-linked gets smoked. december meetings are the tell

[Coke Zero Drinker @CZ_drinker]

ok here’s how i’m actually trading the china thing. not advice, i’m a degen with a spreadsheet

copper. china is half the world’s copper demand so a real bazooka sends it. i add only if it weekly closes higher. if it doesn’t, i don’t

china tech (KWEB). sitting near its lows. i’m NOT buying here, every china pump the last few years got faded. i buy if beijing drops real money

short crude. china buying less oil helps the short in the boring grind case. a real stimulus is the risk, so it has a stop and i respect it

the alarm: the yuan. if usd/cny rips the yuan is breaking and everything china linked gets smoked, copper included. that’s my get small signal

tldr: grind = boring, sit tight. bazooka = copper + china tech rip. yuan break = get small. watching the december meetings. stops on everything

[Coke Zero Drinker @CZ_drinker]

update on the yen thing. three days later it looks like the 20% branch: yen up, nikkei down 3%, nasdaq and crypto hit, jgb yields down five days straight.

except the boj didn't do it. meta's capex guide and the ai scare did.

thursday's the tell. boj holds and the pair keeps sliding, the vol was never in rates. it was in nasdaq the whole time.

[Coke Zero Drinker @CZ_drinker]

lowkey don’t think the yen trade is dead, think the vol just moved.

japan’s been defending 160, dec hike is priced underneath, so the pair’s stuck. pressure’s leaking into JGBs instead, 10y auction just printed 3.1%, highest in ~30 years. and specs are still crowded long yen while the pair keeps grinding up.

how i’m thinking about it into year end (gut odds, not a model):

stays pinned, 50%. chops 155-160, carry keeps paying. play: don’t force it, watch rates, that’s where the vol is

spec longs puke, 30%. pair rips into 160, MoF slaps it, fast flush lower. play: don’t chase into 160. the trade is the flush after they step in

real unwind, 20%. boj goes hawkish (oct 30 or dec), yen rips and the nikkei breaks WITH it. hits everything levered, crypto and nasdaq too. play: cut leverage, long yen is the hedge, not the trade

[Coke Zero Drinker @CZ_drinker]

@notthreadguy “What’s the best way to reheat foiled burrito”

[Coke Zero Drinker @CZ_drinker]

@notthreadguy “What’s the best way to reheat foiled burrito”

[Coke Zero Drinker @CZ_drinker]

@_alfiekerswell usdjpy. 158 and way too quiet

[chasm @chasmmmmmmmmmmm]

THE FULL ADOBE SUITE HAS BEEN REWRITTEN IN RUST AND FULLY OPEN SOURCED 🚨

Brandon Thomas, the founder/CEO of ArtCraft has decompiled and rewritten almost every Adobe app and has now released them for FREE.

How long until AI companies shut down the ability to do this?

[Ole Lehmann @itsolelehmann]

“okay, so what? it’s just math.”

no, you don't get it.

here’s what OpenAI’s math breakthroughs could eventually help make possible in the real world:

Vlasov–Maxwell → stronger foundations for fusion research, whose ultimate prize is virtually limitless clean energy to power civilization

Calderón’s Problem → portable body scanners using electrical signals, making medical imaging cheaper and easier to access

Maximum-Cardinality Matching → faster searches for compatible kidney swaps across large donor pools, helping hospitals coordinate lifesaving transplants

Inverse Elasticity Problem → scans that map tissue stiffness, helping doctors locate suspicious growths inside the body

Mumford–Shah Conjecture → better tools for spotting tissue changes in brain scans, helping doctors identify signs of disease

Bose–Einstein Condensation → stronger foundations for quantum sensors that could help vehicles navigate without GPS

Simple Stochastic Games → better safety checks for self-driving cars and robots before dangerous mistakes reach the real world

Matrix Multiplication → cheaper AI and bigger scientific simulations using the same computers

Edit Distance → faster DNA comparisons, helping researchers study genetic changes linked to disease

The k-Server Problem → robots that waste less movement and energy, making warehouses more efficient and goods cheaper to move

a reminder that math is the foundation of science.

so accelerating mathematical discovery could compress centuries of scientific progress into years.

insane timeline to be alive for!

[Nat Eliason @nateliason]

Instinct / Muse are the first AI agents @cosetteeliason has been a daily driver on after seeing me monkey with OpenClaw etc for nearly a year now.

Seems big.

[Semi Paid Vibe Coder @atelicinvest]

Man, I really gotta get some work done.

But wait - should I use:

- ChatGPT web
- ChatGPT Work web - which is cloud environment for codex
- ChatGPT desktop?
- ChatGPT desktop work - which is local codex
- Codex - which is local codex
- Spaces - which is ... a mix?
- Projects?
- Launch a dot, which is basically cloud environment, but can do some extra stuff, but not really?
- Codex Cloud?
- Legacy Codex Cloud?

Man I wish I was making this up.
What is even going on anymore.

[zooko🛡🦓🦓🦓 ⓩ @zooko]

https://t.co/v7BiOdzU9E

[Coke Zero Drinker @CZ_drinker]

U DONT ME BRO. I AM A MEMECOIN. 😂

[Jaymes R. @jaymesrosenthal]

LIVE NOW
https://t.co/xBJ21JvbKE

[Coke Zero Drinker @CZ_drinker]

Bull case for bonds

if rates ever get near 3% again, a wave of 2021 homeowners refinance at once and it forces a huge rally in long bonds. He wants TLT for that.

Bear case

rates aren't going anywhere near 3%, stay short.

Opposite bets on the same chart.