Bitcoin and Mungers Rule.
One has to wonder about the “AI is sucking up all the capital” narrative when nearly 8 trillion dollars still sits in money market funds earning a risk‑free yield, while fiat money loses something on the order of 8% of its purchasing power per year. In a market that noisy, the 200‑week Munger Rule is less a tactic than an x‑ray of who actually believes in compounding.
Buy at the upward sloping 200-week moving average.
Yes buy when there is blood in the streets.
But emotions get in the way.
The 200 week MA.
It marks the point where price has already done the damage and narrative has followed it down, where momentum, flows and sentiment have all turned against you, and where long-term value quietly reasserts itself. Narrative follows price.
When you should buy, you will not want to. The same is true of selling ( yes sell parabolic moves).
The excess return is therefore not informational. It is behavioural.
Most investors cannot do it. Emotions get in the way, simple human aversion to loss turn volatility into something to be avoided rather than harvested.
I call it the Munger Rule.
Have a nice day.
BREAKING:
VanEck just made a bold call on Bitcoin.
Matthew Siegel. $199,000,000,000 in assets under management.
"Bitcoin will become a mainstream asset that will compete with other reserve settlement currencies."
Not a store of value. Not digital gold.
A reserve settlement currency.
Competing with the dollar. The euro. The yen.
The institutions aren't buying Bitcoin because they believe in decentralization.
They're buying because they see where the monetary system is heading.
Bitcoin Maximalist: Bitcoin is the dominant digital monetary network: an ethical, technical, and economic breakthrough, and an instrument of economic empowerment. It offers superior property rights, monetary integrity, and hope to those facing economic misery.
Bitcoin is extreme value realtive to the power law. As cheap (or even marginally cheaper) than Nov 2022.
Statistically, this is the moment to buy, not wait for it to go lower. But easier said than done. When it is on deep sale, people question whether the asset will even survive, whether it was all an illusion. They get frozen. They can't buy, and fail to buy at any price.
The AI buildout is absorbing capital at historic scale, creating temporary pressure across global markets. That does not weaken Bitcoin. It strengthens the case for scarce, liquid, digital capital. Bitcoin remains the premier asset for the long term. $BTC