This is absolutely crazy.
$10,000 invested in the SpaceX funding round in October 2010 is worth $18 million today.
$10,000 invested in $BTC that same month is worth $9 BILLION today.
Three weeks ago xAI looked like $SPCX SpaceX's biggest liability: $2.5B operating loss in Q1, $7.7B in AI capex, Grok losing ground to Claude and Gemini. Starlink was printing money and xAI was consuming it.
Then SpaceX disclosed $75B in compute contracts: Anthropic at $1.25B/month and Google at $920M/month, and the narrative flipped completely ahead of the IPO.
Google's deal has drawn some scrutiny. Anthropic locked 220k GPUs for $1.25B/month. Google is paying $920M for half that count: roughly 50% more expensive per chip. =
We think the real explanation has a few layers:
1) GPU generation. These appear to be Blackwell-era chips, not H100s. B200s on CoreWeave run $8-11/hr vs $6/hr for H100s. The gap shrinks considerably once you adjust for that.
2) Google owns ~5% of SpaceX. Any above-market rate they pay partially accrues back to them through IPO valuation.
3) Most under-reported, Google needs this capacity specifically right now. Apple's next-gen Siri reportedly runs on Apple Foundation Models hosted on Google Cloud, powered by NVIDIA B200s. That puts Google's infrastructure inside every iPhone. A capacity shortfall there would jeopardize the most important consumer AI deployment on the planet.
The 90-day termination clause after December 2026 tells you Google views this as exactly what their spokesperson called it: "bridge capacity." A tactical move to make sure they don't get caught short during the most important 18 months in the history of their cloud business.
The likely kicker: this deal probably also earns Google preferred access to whatever SpaceX builds in orbit.
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$HUT has already landed a 15-year deal worth $7 billion with Anthropic:
β’ Initial phase 245 MW (15yr triple net lease)
β’ Total partnership target: 2.3 GW of data center infrastructure
With Anthropic signing over a dozen new LOIβs with data center developers for facility leases, donβt be surprised if Hut 8 + Fluidstack are key pieces of the mix
Today, @SpaceX (Nasdaq: SPCX) makes its public market debut with a $75Bn offering (pre-greenshoe) at $135 per share, marking the largest IPO in history.
Congratulations to the SpaceX team. We are honored to serve as joint lead bookrunner and sole stabilization agent.