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Caelux
@Caeluxbt
quant systems, on-chain signal & machine intelligence
Joined March 2023
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52 Followers
42 Posts
One man lost $20 billion in 2 days
the fastest destruction of personal wealth in history, and almost nobody knows his name.
He was not reckless. He turned a $200 million stake into more than $20 billion in under a decade, trained under a Wall Street legend, and ran one of the sharpest books on the street.
His name is Bill Hwang. He hid the size of his bets from every bank he borrowed from, using swaps so no single lender could see the whole position.
Then a few of his stocks slipped. The margin calls hit all at once. $20 billion evaporated in 48 hours, and the banks that lent to him lost over $10 billion more.
He was never wrong about the companies. He was wrong about one number: how much to bet.
The math that killed him is 200 years old and free.
1. Ruin is not about being wrong. It is about betting so big that one wrong move ends the game.
2. Leverage turns a 20% drop into a 100% wipeout.
3. Concentration means there is no second chance to recover.
4. The size of the bet, not the direction, decides who is still standing.
Every legend who lasted, from the card counters to Renaissance, obsessed over bet sizing. Every blowup ignored it.
Being right is free. Knowing how much to bet is the entire edge.
Grok Bot is the best AI agent right now
It gives you an army of agents that can do work for you 24/7
If you set it up correctly, you gain super powers
In this article, I cover how to build a self improving AI research desk that runs while you sleep https://t.co/mAVb4NREDb
A physics professor stood at a chalkboard and said the greatest weakness of the human race is that we cannot understand one simple math function.
He meant the exponential curve. He was talking about population, and he accidentally explained why a tiny group gets rich while everyone else runs in place.
His name was Albert Bartlett. He gave the same lecture more than 1,700 times, for free, while business schools charged a fortune to teach a slower version of the same idea.
Because there are only 3 ways to get rich, and they are not equal.
1. Labor. You work, you get paid. Hard ceiling: 2,000 hours in a year, and you cannot buy the 2,001st.
2. Capital. Your money works while you sleep. This is the exponential curve on his board. It compounds, but you need money before it can start.
3. Code and media. Build one thing, sell it a million times for the same cost. A book, a song, an app. It asks permission from no one.
Most people only ever pull the first lever.
In 2014 a developer built a game in 3 evenings, alone, no team, no funding. Flappy Bird hit 50 million downloads and $50,000 a day in ad revenue. He never hired a single person.
The other 2 levers have been sitting in plain sight the entire time. Almost nobody reaches for them, because school only ever handed you the first one.
The lever is free. Knowing which one you are pulling is the entire edge.
@enzoxbt 3,358 views on the evidence versus a $300 billion industry built on the story, that gap is the entire lesson
A physics professor stood at a chalkboard and said the greatest weakness of the human race is that we cannot understand one simple math function.
He meant the exponential curve. He was talking about population, and he accidentally explained why a tiny group gets rich while everyone else runs in place.
His name was Albert Bartlett. He gave the same lecture more than 1,700 times, for free, while business schools charged a fortune to teach a slower version of the same idea.
Because there are only 3 ways to get rich, and they are not equal.
1. Labor. You work, you get paid. Hard ceiling: 2,000 hours in a year, and you cannot buy the 2,001st.
2. Capital. Your money works while you sleep. This is the exponential curve on his board. It compounds, but you need money before it can start.
3. Code and media. Build one thing, sell it a million times for the same cost. A book, a song, an app. It asks permission from no one.
Most people only ever pull the first lever.
In 2014 a developer built a game in 3 evenings, alone, no team, no funding. Flappy Bird hit 50 million downloads and $50,000 a day in ad revenue. He never hired a single person.
The other 2 levers have been sitting in plain sight the entire time. Almost nobody reaches for them, because school only ever handed you the first one.
The lever is free. Knowing which one you are pulling is the entire edge.
https://t.co/kT9HVUoJhn
This 5 minute video hands you the exact math a quant spends 2 years and $80,000 learning.
Universities sell it as a master's degree in financial engineering. He sits in front of a wall of textbooks and lays out the whole path for free.
The math that actually gets you hired at a fund, in the order you should learn it:
1. Calculus, single and multivariable.
2. Linear algebra. Every model is a matrix underneath.
3. Probability theory. This is the real language of markets.
4. Statistics and regression. How you prove an edge is real.
5. Differential equations.
6. Real analysis. The step that filters out most people.
7. Stochastic calculus and Ito's lemma. This is the wall almost no one gets past, and the exact reason quants get paid.
The first three you might already have. Fund interviews live in the last two, and that is why 5 minutes of this beats a semester of the wrong course.
None of it is behind a paywall. It has been sitting in these same textbooks for decades.
The books are cheap. Knowing the order to read them is the entire edge.
@0xLeohart glad it helped
This 5 minute video hands you the exact math a quant spends 2 years and $80,000 learning.
Universities sell it as a master's degree in financial engineering. He sits in front of a wall of textbooks and lays out the whole path for free.
The math that actually gets you hired at a fund, in the order you should learn it:
1. Calculus, single and multivariable.
2. Linear algebra. Every model is a matrix underneath.
3. Probability theory. This is the real language of markets.
4. Statistics and regression. How you prove an edge is real.
5. Differential equations.
6. Real analysis. The step that filters out most people.
7. Stochastic calculus and Ito's lemma. This is the wall almost no one gets past, and the exact reason quants get paid.
The first three you might already have. Fund interviews live in the last two, and that is why 5 minutes of this beats a semester of the wrong course.
None of it is behind a paywall. It has been sitting in these same textbooks for decades.
The books are cheap. Knowing the order to read them is the entire edge.
https://t.co/Uz4xm5Xvvz
A former JP Morgan banker accidentally handed the public the exact model Wall Street uses to value every company on earth.
Banks pay their analysts $500,000 a year to run it. Business schools charge 6 figures to teach a slower version. He put the whole thing online for free.
Wharton MBA, ex JP Morgan investment banking, billions in medtech and biotech deals under his name before most people finish college. The channel is rareliquid.
The method is called comparable company analysis. It fits in 4 lines.
1. List the public companies most like the one you are valuing.
2. For each, pull one number: enterprise value divided by EBITDA.
3. Take the median of the group, never the average, so a single outlier cannot lie to you.
4. Multiply that median by your company's EBITDA. That is the price.
This is the same math sitting under acquisitions worth $10 billion and up.
It has been the first thing every junior analyst learns for 30 years, and the industry would rather you never see the 4 lines. Almost nobody outside a trading floor ever has.
The model is free. Knowing which companies are truly comparable is the entire edge.
@Shukshln it is not a belief. every bank on earth runs this daily
A former JP Morgan banker accidentally handed the public the exact model Wall Street uses to value every company on earth.
Banks pay their analysts $500,000 a year to run it. Business schools charge 6 figures to teach a slower version. He put the whole thing online for free.
Wharton MBA, ex JP Morgan investment banking, billions in medtech and biotech deals under his name before most people finish college. The channel is rareliquid.
The method is called comparable company analysis. It fits in 4 lines.
1. List the public companies most like the one you are valuing.
2. For each, pull one number: enterprise value divided by EBITDA.
3. Take the median of the group, never the average, so a single outlier cannot lie to you.
4. Multiply that median by your company's EBITDA. That is the price.
This is the same math sitting under acquisitions worth $10 billion and up.
It has been the first thing every junior analyst learns for 30 years, and the industry would rather you never see the 4 lines. Almost nobody outside a trading floor ever has.
The model is free. Knowing which companies are truly comparable is the entire edge.
https://t.co/rUN1cPDY65
@Mikadzyki_NFT glad it landed
The richest investor alive once gave away his entire method to a room of students in about ninety minutes. For free. It has sat online ever since and almost nobody watches it.
In 1998 Warren Buffett sat in a chair in front of MBA students at the University of Florida. No slides. No notes. Just a microphone and every lesson he used to turn a few thousand dollars into more than a hundred billion.
Three things he said in that room are worth more than the degree those students were paying $200,000 for.
One. Diversification is protection against ignorance. His words. If you actually understand what you own, spreading money across fifty names just locks in an average result. For most of his life he held fewer than ten positions.
Two. He told the room that if he could buy 10% of any one of their future earnings, he would not pick the highest grades or the sharpest mind. He would pick the person everyone in the room trusted. Character compounds. Talent without it does not.
Three. The polished theory they were paying a fortune to learn, the models and the portfolio math, he called mostly useless. You do not need it. You need a few good decisions and the patience to sit on them for years.
Sit with the gap. The most valuable finance lecture ever recorded costs nothing. The version with a certificate on the wall costs $220,000, and it teaches the opposite.
A man worth more than most countries handed the whole method to anyone willing to sit and listen. Almost nobody has. That, not money, is the real head start.
https://t.co/2JQpx1CJeg
The co-CEO of Waymo just put a number on the thing everyone building with AI keeps getting wrong.
A working demo is about 1% of the work. The other 99% is the part nobody films: making it reliable, safe, and trusted enough that a stranger will actually depend on it.
His proof is brutal. Waymo's first self-driving demo took 18 months. The real product took 15 years. The gap between "it worked once on camera" and "it works every time for everyone" is basically the entire job.
Your feed is full of slick AI demos right now. Almost none of them will cross that gap. The demo is the easy 1%. The 99% is why most of them quietly vanish.
This is Dmitri Dolgov, whose cars now run 500,000 driverless trips a week across 15 cities.
Everyone can build the 1%. Almost nobody finishes the rest.
A Michigan professor taught 800,000 people that all of finance comes down to two words.
His name is Gautam Kaul. He has run the same free course since 2012, and it has reached over 800,000 people.
No tickers. No jargon. He opens by stripping the entire field down to one sentence.
Finance is the business of creating value. And value creation has only two ingredients.
Time. A dollar today is not a dollar next year, because today's dollar can work while you wait.
Uncertainty. Every future payoff is a probability, not a promise, and the size of that doubt is the price.
That is it. Every loan, mortgage, bond, stock and startup valuation is just those two forces doing math on each other.
Interest is the price of time. The risk premium is the price of uncertainty. Learn to see both and most financial products stop being mysterious and start being obvious.
The course is free and has been for over a decade. Most people who say finance is confusing have never watched an hour of it.
Finance was never complicated. It was two words, wearing a suit expensive enough to make you stop asking.
In 1626 the Dutch bought the island of Manhattan for goods worth about twenty four dollars. Everyone calls it the greatest steal in history. The math says the sellers may have won.
The story goes that Peter Minuit handed over trinkets worth roughly sixty guilders, later put at around twenty four dollars, and walked away with the most valuable real estate on Earth.
For four hundred years it has been taught as the ultimate one sided deal.
Now run the other side of it. Suppose the sellers had taken that twenty four dollars and simply let it earn what the stock market has averaged over the long run, a little over eight percent a year.
Four centuries of compounding turns twenty four dollars into a number with more than a dozen zeros. Enough to buy back not just the island, but every tower and street and building standing on it today, with room to spare.
Same twenty four dollars. Same land. The only variable was time, and time did all the work.
This is the whole idea behind present value. A small amount now can be worth more than a fortune later, because now can grow and later cannot.
It is why a dollar today beats a dollar tomorrow. Why a three hundred million dollar jackpot paid over thirty years is worth about half the number on the billboard. Why waiting years for a bigger raise is usually a quiet loss.
Every price in finance is really a question about time, and almost nobody stops to do the math.
If you want the full mechanics, the MIT lecture on it is attached.
The most expensive thing you own is not your money. It is the years you let sit still.
https://t.co/viKltEF7ms
A Michigan professor taught 800,000 people that all of finance comes down to two words.
His name is Gautam Kaul. He has run the same free course since 2012, and it has reached over 800,000 people.
No tickers. No jargon. He opens by stripping the entire field down to one sentence.
Finance is the business of creating value. And value creation has only two ingredients.
Time. A dollar today is not a dollar next year, because today's dollar can work while you wait.
Uncertainty. Every future payoff is a probability, not a promise, and the size of that doubt is the price.
That is it. Every loan, mortgage, bond, stock and startup valuation is just those two forces doing math on each other.
Interest is the price of time. The risk premium is the price of uncertainty. Learn to see both and most financial products stop being mysterious and start being obvious.
The course is free and has been for over a decade. Most people who say finance is confusing have never watched an hour of it.
Finance was never complicated. It was two words, wearing a suit expensive enough to make you stop asking.
https://t.co/viKltEF7ms
The AI boom is the biggest rented edge in history. The smartest companies on Earth are all paying the rent, and it never stops.
Every year a faster chip lands, and the one they spent billions on is suddenly behind.
So they buy again. And again. The spending cannot stop, because the moment it does, a rival with newer silicon eats them alive.
That is not investment. It is rent. The most expensive rent in history, on an asset that loses value faster than almost anything they own.
This is the oldest pattern in markets wearing a new costume. Speed, hardware, being first. Every one of them is an edge you rent, and a rented edge vanishes the second someone matches it.
The companies leading the AI race are not winning it. They are renting the lead by the quarter, at a price that only climbs.
And the same law runs your own account. Every edge you pay for expires. The only ones that compound are the ones nobody can sell you.
The article below ranks all of it on one line, from the edge that dies fastest to the one that grows forever.
The most expensive edge on Earth is still just rented. The one that actually lasts was never for sale.
https://t.co/viKltEF7ms
You have one edge no billion dollar fund can ever buy, and you keep trading it away.
- It is not speed. You will never beat a firm that spent millions on the wiring.
- It is not information. That is priced in before you finish the headline.
It is time.
A fund cannot hold a position for three years. Its investors, its leverage, its whole machine dies if it sits still. It has to act now, every day, forever.
You do not. You can buy something, understand it, and wait while the fast money exhausts itself racing.
That patience is the one edge on Earth that gets stronger the longer you hold it, and no amount of money can take it from you.
So watch what you actually do with it. Intraday alerts. Faster feeds. One more indicator. Every one of those trades your only lasting edge for a rented one you can never win with.
You are not outgunned. You are handing back the single weapon they can never have.
The full framework is in the article below, every edge ranked from the one that dies fastest to the one that compounds forever.
The machines rent their edge by the millisecond. Yours was free, and it grows while you wait.
You have one edge no billion dollar fund can ever buy, and you keep trading it away.
- It is not speed. You will never beat a firm that spent millions on the wiring.
- It is not information. That is priced in before you finish the headline.
It is time.
A fund cannot hold a position for three years. Its investors, its leverage, its whole machine dies if it sits still. It has to act now, every day, forever.
You do not. You can buy something, understand it, and wait while the fast money exhausts itself racing.
That patience is the one edge on Earth that gets stronger the longer you hold it, and no amount of money can take it from you.
So watch what you actually do with it. Intraday alerts. Faster feeds. One more indicator. Every one of those trades your only lasting edge for a rented one you can never win with.
You are not outgunned. You are handing back the single weapon they can never have.
The full framework is in the article below, every edge ranked from the one that dies fastest to the one that compounds forever.
The machines rent their edge by the millisecond. Yours was free, and it grows while you wait.
https://t.co/viKltEF7ms
@L1vsun so where does someone actually start reading order flow without a bloomberg terminal
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