Caleb

[Nokia @nokia]

Today, @Google reinforced its long-term commitment to Finland through a major investment in AI infrastructure. Nokia is proud to support @googlecloud in this launch, which is a powerful step forward in building Finlandʼs and Europe's digital infrastructure together. Our President and CEO said at the launch event today:

'Every AI token is a network moment. Billions of agents, devices, and people act on intelligence in real time, and every one of those moments depends on a network that is fast, secure and always on. Nokia builds those networks. And with Google we're co-innovating to deliver Optical and IP networks that move intelligence faster, farther and securely. Google is investing to create that future in Finland and we are proud to help them connect it to the world.’ @justinhotard, President and CEO of Nokia

https://t.co/HnliTC7Id6

[ByungJun Ahn @dubidubabap]

https://t.co/W51pdjvYWt 뉴스 정리.

https://t.co/zFrFQHneqp가 Sivers에 2027년 생산용 $8.2M 규모 Ka-band BFIC 주문을 넣었다.

대상은 차세대 multi-orbit tactical satellite terminal용 multi-beam Ka-band beamforming IC다.

이 뉴스는 단순 개발 협력이나 전시 참가가 아니다.

실제 2027년 생산 주문 금액이 찍혔다는 점이 중요하다.

Sivers는 이번 주문을 development and initial production 단계에서 scaled multi-year deployment 단계로 넘어가는 이정표라고 표현했다.

그리고 Sivers 체급에서 $8.2M은 작은 주문이 아니다.

대략 환산하면 SEK 75~82M 수준이다.

Sivers의 2025년 연간 매출은 약 SEK 304M이었다.

즉 이번 주문 하나가 2025년 연간 매출의 약 25% 안팎에 해당한다.

Q1 2026 매출은 SEK 61.9M이었다.

Q4 2025 매출은 SEK 80.7M이었다.

그러면 이번 https://t.co/zFrFQHneqp 주문은 최근 분기 매출 하나와 비슷하거나, Q1 2026 매출보다 큰 규모다.

특히 2025년 product revenue가 SEK 85.7M 수준이었다는 점을 감안하면, 이번 주문은 Wireless/SATCOM 제품 매출 관점에서 꽤 의미 있는 사이즈다.

분류는 Bullish.

다만 구분은 필요하다.

이번 뉴스는 Photonics/CPO/Jabil/ELS 검증이 아니다.

그쪽은 아직 별도로 봐야 한다.

이번 주문은 Wireless, 특히 SATCOM·방산·위성통신 쪽 thesis가 실제 생산 주문으로 일부 전환되고 있다는 신호다.

Sivers는 Q1 2026에서 opportunity pipeline이 $799M까지 늘었다고 밝혔지만, 동시에 매출은 전년 대비 22% 감소했고 영업현금흐름도 -SEK 49.2M이었다.

시장이 의심하던 부분은 명확했다.

“pipeline이 진짜 주문으로 바뀌는가?”

이번 https://t.co/zFrFQHneqp 주문은 그 질문에 대한 첫 번째 긍정적 답변에 가깝다.

https://t.co/zFrFQHneqp 쪽 고객 모멘텀도 같이 봐야 한다.

Sivers 발표에 따르면 https://t.co/zFrFQHneqp는 U.S. Army, U.S. Navy 관련 고객 모멘텀, Royal Canadian Navy trials, Telesat·SES·Viasat 등 위성망 지원 확대를 언급했다.

또 York Space Systems는 https://t.co/zFrFQHneqp 인수를 위한 definitive agreement를 체결한 상태다.

구조로 보면 이렇게 이어진다.

Sivers → https://t.co/zFrFQHneqp → York Space → 미국 방산·우주 생태계

이 연결고리가 실제 주문으로 이어지기 시작했다는 점에서, 단순 기대감보다는 질이 좋은 뉴스다.

내 판단은 hold-strengthening signal.

Kill condition은 아니다.

오히려 “pipeline이 전환되지 않는다”는 리스크를 일부 낮춘다.

하지만 이 주문 하나로 모든 문제가 해결된 건 아니다.

$8.2M은 Sivers 체급에서는 큰 주문이 맞다.

다만 회사 전체의 cash burn, dilution risk, H2 2026 매출 회복, photonics ramp, Jabil 1.6T follow-up까지 한 번에 해결하는 규모는 아니다.

그래서 결론은 이렇다.

SIVE의 2027 ramp thesis 중 SATCOM/ALL.SPACE/York 축은 오늘 공식적으로 한 단계 검증됐다.

특히 “작은 회사가 대형 고객 생태계로 들어가고 있다”는 관점에서는 의미가 크다.

다음은 숫자로 확인해야 한다.

2027년 매출 인식 시점
gross margin
후속 생산 주문 확대
York의 https://t.co/zFrFQHneqp 인수 완료
U.S. Army/Navy 프로그램이 Sivers 매출로 직접 연결되는지
H2 2026 매출 회복 여부
Photonics/CPO 쪽 추가 검증

오늘 뉴스는 좋다.

Sivers 체급에서는 큰 주문이다.

다만 아직은 대형 리레이팅 확정이 아니라, 2027년 전환 가능성을 강화하는 생산 주문 확인 이벤트로 보는 게 맞다.

개인 투자 기록. 매수·매도 추천 아님.

[Caleb @Caleb_SJin]

$SIVEF Earn ~25% from buying dip😁

[Caleb @Caleb_SJin]

$SIVE Adding 5684 shares of $SIVEF for this dip. It drops ~30% from ATH with RSI14 53, lowest for the past 3 month.

[Caleb @Caleb_SJin]

Respect🫡 $SIVE $SIVEF

[ItsSmacky @Chaamacoo]

Reflections from a Seven-Year Shareholder: Why Sivers Semiconductors / $SIVE Was Always Destined for Greatness

After nearly seven years as a shareholder in Sivers Semiconductors, I have watched this company evolve from an overlooked Swedish deeptech player into a force at the intersection of photonics, wireless communications, AI infrastructure, and strategic defense technologies. The recent surge in the share price is not a surprise to those of us who have followed the story closely it is the logical unfolding of a thesis many of us articulated years ago when few were listening.

From the moment I first dug into the company, its potential felt enormous and profoundly underappreciated. The technology advanced lasers for co-packaged optics in AI data centers, beamforming ICs for 5G/6G and SATCOM, and full-duplex arrays for electronic warfare sits at the heart of multiple secular megatrends. Yet for years, the market fixated on quarterly losses, development costs, and execution risks while largely ignoring the customer pipeline, partnerships, and technological edge.

Where Unicorns Are Born

This is how real winners emerge. History is clear: transformative companies are rarely discovered in consensus comfort zones. They are unearthed where sentiment is exhausted, where weak hands have capitulated, and where the narrative is dominated by skepticism. Sivers spent years in that crucible not for the faint-hearted.

You had to immerse yourself in the details: the photonics platform’s unique indium phosphide capabilities and its work with hyperscalers, AI data center players, $AAPL (sensing) and Win Semiconductors, along with key partners such as Jabil and GlobalFoundries; the wireless division’s tier-1 engagements with names like Nokia, BAE Systems, SATCOM operators and the U.S. government itself. Companies and institutions of that caliber do not collaborate, co-develop, or plan multi-year programs with you unless there is real substance and a clear path forward. That, for me, is the only validation you truly need. Add to that the expanding opportunity pipeline now approaching $800 million and strategic validations like repeat US CHIPS Act funding, and the picture becomes very clear.

Bears and headline-chasers thrive on the opposite approach. Swedish media have produced more than 50 negative articles in recent times the positive ones you can count on one hand. It is a witch hunt. They obsessively highlight risk, risk, risk, with almost no mention of the enormous potential. How can anyone take them seriously? They have no skin in the game. If they could invest successfully, they wouldn’t be working for newspapers. They pretend to be all-knowing, but the truth is no one knows exactly where technology and the market are heading. After two decades working with IT companies large and small I understand both the tech and the market. That is why I am bullish, and why this development does not surprise me.

The same goes for the short sellers. One recent 43-page “analysis” packed with incorrect assumptions and misinformation was clearly designed to create fear and doubt. I could refute every single point, but why give them more oxygen? Notably, they don’t even dare to hold a meaningful disclosed short position. That is weaker than their analysis. I put real money on the table and take real risk. Please increase your shorts. I am waiting for you to go under.

Leadership and Shareholder Transitions: A Healthy Reset

Some former insiders and larger holders have exited. I am not surprised I am relieved. They did not deserve to be part of the journey that is now unfolding, a journey that is still far from over.

Erik Fällström and his associates supported the company for many years, and for that we are grateful. But the attempts to extract personal gain crossed a line most notably trying to spin off the photonics division into a SPAC where he (via Achilles Capital / DDM) was a major sponsor, at what looked like bargain terms. The chairman and new CEO rightly put a stop to it. Shortly after, the selling began. He sold the majority of his holdings around 4 SEK. Karma is real. In parallel, Achilles Capital and its parent DDM Finance have been forced to apply for corporate reconstruction due to massive debt issues. The contrast between opportunism and long-term conviction could not be clearer.

Harish Krishnaswamy came in via the MixComm acquisition. I will not lie I like Harish. He is technically strong and has an excellent network that helped land key development agreements, including CHIPS Act wins. At the same time, I am not surprised he is selling. He has sold multiple times before, often at 4–8 SEK levels. This latest sale seems to be his chance to redeem all the earlier exits at much lower prices a kind of psychological average to finally make it feel better. Am I happy about it? No. But this is the same person who, several times right after Sivers secured major agreements, sold and killed the momentum, or sold when tax bills came due. As one of the founders, I think he simply wanted to feel that his years at MixComm finally delivered something tangible. This was the last time, and frankly, it feels damn good.

Funds that fully exited did so because they operate under strict risk mandates and manage other people’s money. That is natural and not a negative signal.

These departures represent a healthy cleansing. The right people and the right long-term capital are now aligned for the next phase.

The Path Forward

No one has a crystal ball. No one knows exactly how large the Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) market will ultimately become. But I genuinely believe people will be shocked by the speed and momentum once it really starts ramping. The combination of exploding AI compute demand, power constraints in data centers, and Sivers’ differentiated indium phosphide laser platform positions the company at the center of one of the most important technology shifts of this decade.

The current momentum validates what patient shareholders have long seen. Product ramps, pipeline conversion, CHIPS Act milestones, and potential US dual-listing preparations are tangible progress. Volatility will remain; bears will resurface. But conviction built on deep research outlasts noise.

To newer investors: Do your own work. Ignore the echo chamber of fear. Build your own mosaic from primary sources. True edges come from independent thinking. The easy path is skepticism and short-termism. The harder, more rewarding one is sustained belief grounded in analysis.

Sivers was never a quick flip. It was and remains a multi-year compounder for those willing to look beyond the noise. The diamond was always there for those with the eyes to see it. The journey is far from over, and the best chapters are still ahead.

Stay bullish. Stay informed. And above all, trust the work you’ve done.

[Caleb @Caleb_SJin]

$SIVE Adding 5684 shares of $SIVEF for this dip. It drops ~30% from ATH with RSI14 53, lowest for the past 3 month.

[Al Bert @Albert_TheVoid]

So there are now three different 2X LONG ETFs being registered for $SIVE. Only for "knowledgeable investors who understand the potential consequences of seeking daily leveraged (2X) investment results" LOL :)

- REX Shares T-REX 2X LONG SIVE DAILY TARGET ETF https://t.co/PXyVWpxBiD
- DEFIANCE DAILY TARGET 2X LONG SIVEF ETF https://t.co/oavtuQnQNY
- Themes ETFs Leverage Shares 2X Long Sivers Semiconductors Daily ETF https://t.co/jSGrclCQZc

@aleabitoreddit

[Caleb @Caleb_SJin]

The $SIVE CEO just returned from China. It is highly likely he was searching for a foundry to expand production volume for 2027.

[Caleb @Caleb_SJin]

Sander (CMO of $SIVE) just liked this post on LinkedIn. 👀 I think this is a massive hint at progress with the Nasdaq listing, even if they can't legally leak anything in advance.
Add in today's cooperation with $GFS, and the bullish momentum is undeniable. Factoring all this in, $SIVE should easily be valued at 3x from here. 🚀📈

[Caleb @Caleb_SJin]

Big news for $SIVE! Fortunately, I only trimmed 10% of my position for past week. The shorts almost shook me out!

[Caleb @Caleb_SJin]

$SIVE Here is a summary of the Q1 interview with Vickram Vathulya, CEO of Sivers Semiconductors:
Q1 Performance & Market Challenges
Revenue Drivers: Sivers executed well on controllable factors, but Q1 results came in lighter than targeted.
External Impacts: The shortfall was primarily driven by foreign exchange headwinds and the ripple effects of the Q4 US government shutdown. The shutdown delayed budget approvals and defense spending, which directly impacted their wireless business and customer timelines.
Product Verticals: Wireless vs. Photonics
Wireless: Currently the primary growth vector. While there are no major capacity issues, there are minor RF material shortages that the company is proactively managing. The company is already seeing production orders for Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) and is heavily focusing on ramping up space and satcom, with defense commercialization as the next phase.
Photonics: This sector is currently servicing small and medium businesses as it prepares for major volume ramps starting in 2027. The automotive sector is providing an early runway, which will eventually transition into supplying lasers and optical amplifiers for AI data centers.
Strategic Investments & Pipeline Growth
Building Capabilities: Costs increased during the quarter due to deliberate investments in sales, field application engineers, and operational leadership to support a growing pipeline without distracting the core design teams.
Pipeline Momentum: The opportunity pipeline is viewed as the most reliable leading indicator for future revenue (targeting the 2026-2030 window). While heavily driven by wireless late last year, photonics opportunities grew significantly by the end of May, bringing balance between the two divisions.
Financial Controls & Potential US Dual Listing
Accounting Upgrades: Recent restatements in the annual report were not due to changes in business economics, but rather a shift to more rigorous PCAOB compliance standards. This emphasizes stronger documentation and financial controls.
US Dual Listing:
Benefits: Access to a broader specialist investor base, better strategic visibility, direct comparison with relevant US peer companies, and improved access to long-term capital.
Drawbacks: Meaningfully higher compliance requirements, increased costs, and a heavier load on management bandwidth.
Capital Allocation & Future Outlook
Recent Capital Raise: The directed rights issue will be deployed strategically to support commercial scaling, upcoming product ramps, and stronger governance during critical business inflection points.
The "Layer Cake" of 2027: The ultimate priority is preparing for late 2026 and 2027, which Vathulya describes as a "layer cake" of multiple overlapping product ramps moving into full production across all focus markets.

https://t.co/ZMU31by5zI

[Caleb @Caleb_SJin]

@aleabitoreddit Nobody talked about dual listing updates?

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

https://t.co/IJPmDDBHcq

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

$COHR earnings note:

Coherent's CEO basically reaffirmed GS research note about CPO being a massive revenue driver:

Transcript: “One of the most important long-term growth opportunities for Coherent”

In terms of timeline implications on $SIVE, $LITE, and other CPO adjacent names, just confirms timelines:

"Initial scale-out CPO revenue is expected to begin in the second half of calendar 2026, with scale-up CPO revenue following in the second half of calendar 2027"

"Coherent is working with multiple other customers and expects CPO solutions to be widely adopted." - This also reaffirmed adoption level.

Scale-up CPO is the biggest value driver across the board that happens start of H2 next year. We're still in H1 2026 entering H2 2026.

So this is the ideal time to frontrun CPO names before anything hits the balance sheet.

This is known as "alpha"... pricing in things market fully don't know yet by looking at financials.

Markets are typically forward looking 8-12 months... So if massive volume ramp happens July 2027 (might get pushed forward again)...

And it's May 2026, a lot of that gets priced in between July 2026 and July 2027... between volume agreements H2 2026, and pre-production ramp H1 2027.

2 months before markets price in the largest volume drivers is what I call "frontrunning" the next CPO Supercycle.

We know it's coming. Just a matter of waiting.

[Pep Invest @Pep_Invest]

$SIVE

Picture this: AI is exploding, and the biggest bottleneck isn’t raw compute power anymore – it’s moving insane amounts of data between chips inside data centers without melting everything or burning through electricity bills.

Copper wires are hitting their limits.

The fix? Photonics – basically using light (lasers and optical links) for super-fast, low-power interconnects.

That’s exactly where $SIVE shines.

They make specialized III-V compound semiconductor lasers that are turning into the go-to light sources for next-gen Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), 1.6T transceivers, and external light source modules.

Right now their market cap sits around the $900M range, which feels laughably small when zoom out.

Hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Nvidia are pouring hundreds of billions into AI infrastructure.

Every major optical engine project needs reliable, high-performance lasers – and SIVE’s tech is already validated and showing up in real pipelines through partners like $POET (tied to Marvell’s photonic fabric stuff), Jabil (their 1.6T programs), Ayar Labs (AMD and Amazon connections), and the O-Net/Enablence combo for broader Asian and Western hyperscaler plays.

It’s not a single “hail mary” – it’s multiple overlapping shots across the ecosystem that’s going to matter in 2027–2029 when volume really ramps.

The beauty is the timing. Today their revenue looks tiny because we’re still in the qualification and early-design-win phase. But once these AI clusters scale and optical interconnects become table stakes (which pretty much every serious forecast says they will), SIVE’s lasers could ride the wave proportionally.

Throw in their side bets in LiDAR for autos/industrial (multi-year contracts already in the tens of millions) and sensors, and you’ve got real diversification.

They’re not betting the farm on one customer or one hyperscaler – they’re embedded across the board.

Now, why could this turn SIVE into one of Europe’s biggest photonics companies? Europe already has serious strengths in the field – think integrated photonics hubs in the Netherlands, strong research across Germany/France/UK, and a growing push from the EU to lead in energy-efficient tech instead of ceding everything to Asia or the US.

But most European photonics plays are either early-stage startups or focused on niche research.

$SIVE is one of the few that’s shipping real laser chips today, with established foundry relationships (like Win Semi) that let them scale production without building everything themselves. If they execute, they become the European “picks and shovels” provider for the AI optics boom – the specialist that everyone else needs.

The global photonics market is already massive and growing fast; the AI-driven slice (data center optics, CPO, high-speed comms) is the rocket fuel.

Europe has the talent and the policy tailwinds – SIVE just needs to keep landing these design wins and ramping volume.

Look, this isn’t guaranteed – tech supply chains are brutal, competition exists, and we still need to see the 2027 volume actually hit. But the setup feels like one of those classic “market hasn’t woken up yet” situations. Tiny current numbers, massive addressable future, and real technical moat in lasers that are hard to swap out once qualified.

If the AI train keeps rolling (and every sign says it will), SIVE could easily look like a European photonics champion a few years from now instead of the quiet Swedish name it is today.

That’s my take – excited, not euphoric.

The fundamentals line up in a way that feels different from pure hype.

What do you think – already in or just watching?

[Snusmumriken @Photonix1337]

$sive $sivef

[Caleb @Caleb_SJin]

@Yeah_Dave we dislike this kind of analysis, likely Hims is the Amazon of healthcare…we prefer analyzing the fundamentals of company, the why it's worthy investment and its logic behind. and we also love your analysis of macroeconomics and pull Bloomberg data to tentatively prove it.

[Shai Wininger @shai_wininger]

I love it when a plan comes together: a nice lady from Delaware just insured 5 cats with a @lemonade_inc Pet policy for over $1,700/year.

What made it possible (without her even knowing):

Uniclient → our new conversational experience

LoCo UW and Pricing platforms → allowed us to launch Delaware & Hawaii with minimal effort

Our new multi-pet plan → great discounts powered by LoCo’s Multi-Product feature

[Shai Wininger @shai_wininger]

Just launched @Lemonade_Inc Pet in Hawaii & Delaware, expanding our reach to 42 states nationwide