Callam Pickering

APAC senior economist at @IndeedAU. Former RBA economist and economic journalist. Sports lover, avid reader and pretty opinionated. Active: #ausbiz #auspol

[Callam Pickering @CallamPickering]

Not sure there are any real people left on here, but if you're not a bot feel free to follow me over at the good place.

https://t.co/G0AX68x6Ye

[Callam Pickering @CallamPickering]

Higher rates of remote work made working multiple jobs easier, while the cost-of-living crisis forced people to earn more.

[Callam Pickering @CallamPickering]

6.5% of Australian workers have multiple jobs. That figure has been elevated for the past five years, reflecting the impact of the pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis #ausbiz

[Callam Pickering @CallamPickering]

2.1% of Australian jobs are vacant nationwide. While that number has declined from a peak of 3.1% back in 2022, it remains well above the average vacancy rate from 2010 to 2019 (1.4%) #ausbiz

[Callam Pickering @CallamPickering]

Admittedly, a lot of that growth had to do with data centres, so the contribution to GDP wasn't that large since we import those materials.

[Callam Pickering @CallamPickering]

Private business investment rose 6% in the March quarter, accounting for 12.6% of real GDP. That's the highest share since September 2015 #ausbiz

[Callam Pickering @CallamPickering]

Real GDP per capita fell by 0.1% in the March quarter and is just 1% higher than a year ago #ausbiz #auspol

[Callam Pickering @CallamPickering]

What drove Aussie GDP growth in the March quarter?

Both consumption and investment were pretty good, but that was offset by a decline in exports and strong growth in imports.

That left real GDP growth at 0.3% in the March quarter and 2.5% over the past year #ausbiz #auspol

[Callam Pickering @CallamPickering]

Australia's wage price index rose 3.3% over the past year, compared to consumer prices climbing 4%.

So unless you've received a promotion or changed jobs recently - and I certainly haven't - then there's a good chance your salary buys a lot less than it used to #auspol

[Callam Pickering @CallamPickering]

Another sign that the graduate market is generally healthy is low job search volumes. It’s a sign that friction in the grad market remains relatively low. Grads continue to find jobs quickly, requiring fewer job searches than in the years before the post-pandemic job boom.

[Callam Pickering @CallamPickering]

A lot of speculation recently that AI is impacting demand for graduates leaving school.

In Australia, we aren't seeing that in the data. Yes, graduate demand in occupations with high-exposure to AI have slipped, but the timing was too early to be driven by AI #auspol

[Callam Pickering @CallamPickering]

We aren't seeing any distress among graduate jobseekers. If the graduate market was generally weak, we'd see a surge in jobseeker searches as graduates search and fail to find work. There's no sign of that right now.

[Callam Pickering @CallamPickering]

Another sign that the graduate market is generally healthy is low job search volumes. It’s a sign that friction in the grad market remains relatively low. Grads continue to find jobs quickly, requiring fewer job searches than in the years before the post-pandemic job boom.

[Callam Pickering @CallamPickering]

If AI was the main contributing factor, then I'd expect a bigger move this year. The tools are more widely implemented, more sophisticated and capable. But we aren't really seeing that.

IMO earlier overhiring, persistent economic weakness are more likely drivers than AI.

[Callam Pickering @CallamPickering]

A lot of speculation recently that AI is impacting demand for graduates leaving school.

In Australia, we aren't seeing that in the data. Yes, graduate demand in occupations with high-exposure to AI have slipped, but the timing was too early to be driven by AI #auspol

[Callam Pickering @CallamPickering]

At best, you could claim that AI may have contributed to the high-exposure share moving from 41% in 2024 to 36% last year. But in early 2026 - that share has climbed slightly to 37%.

[Callam Pickering @CallamPickering]

Employer demand for graduates has slipped in recent years, but remains well above pre-pandemic levels. Early signs in 2026 is that demand has stabilised, maybe even slightly improved on last year #ausbiz

See more: https://t.co/yRCum8UXbb

[Callam Pickering @CallamPickering]

The RBA is forecasting much slower economic growth, higher inflation and higher interest rates ...

... an yet, they expect the unemployment rate be unchanged over the course of the year. Good luck with that #ausbiz #auspol

[Callam Pickering @CallamPickering]

Rising fuel prices don't just hit consumers directly, but also indirectly as an input into other goods & services.

Indirectly, fuel accounts for around 2-2.5% of the domestic cost of other goods & services in the CPI.

Although in travel it's naturally much higher #ausbiz

[Callam Pickering @CallamPickering]

Australian productivity growth is expected to remain dismal, with the RBA downgrading its productivity forecasts yet again #ausbiz #auspol

[Callam Pickering @CallamPickering]

Australian productivity growth is expected to remain dismal, with the RBA downgrading its productivity forecasts yet again #ausbiz #auspol