Investment Friend

All statements are my own and are not financial advice. I am a successful stock trader that gives general tips on market fundamentals.

[Investment Friend @CalmTrader102]

**My Approach Update**: I manage two portfolios: one for active trading and one for long-term investing. I allocate 14% of my capital to trading, while the remaining 86% is primarily in ETFs, with significant holdings in $MSFT and $NVDA, plus a few smaller positions $GLD and $KTOS.

With over 20 years of stock market experience, my allocation reflects careful risk management and portfolio size considerations.

[Investment Friend @CalmTrader102]

@KreizJordy GLW and AVGO along with a touch of BE.

[Investment Friend @CalmTrader102]

@sv_techie 🤣 Anytime she buys something I own, it worries me a lot.

[Investment Friend @CalmTrader102]

@KreizJordy Great work my friend! I am slightly down today with $NASA putting me at 61.09%🤷‍♂️

[Investment Friend @CalmTrader102]

@RichardMoglen It was a great day!

[Martin Shkreli @MartinShkreli]

The best way to look at it is consider what financials are required for $SPCX to be an attractive investment.

This exercise requires you to figure out how many users Starlink would need to generate xB dollars of revenue. Looking at 50-100B in the next 5 years puts the stock at a reasonable price.

This is also somewhat dependent on the AI business, too. Not too many companies dream of operating low margin data centers, but, it’s working right now. The optionality that xAI figures out how to compete more aggressively with their new partner or OpenAI is hard to value.

Most importantly, you have to value management’s ability to turn cash into durable businesses. This is why just modeling cash flow without considering management’s skill is useless. A team that churns cash flow on weak projects is worth far less than a team who deploys intelligently. This is the core of valuation and capitalism.

[Ted Zhang @TedHZhang]

$VCX that owns Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX flagging and getting really tight. Could squeeze as these behemoth private companies continue to get re-rated like every week.

Charts by @Deepvue

[Deepvue @Deepvue]

Drop the AVWAP. Read the Edge.

Eight anchor presets. Full manual control.

Anchor to earnings, swing highs, 52W extremes — wherever supply meets demand.

Deepvue Charts — out NOW.

[Investment Friend @CalmTrader102]

Good stuff coming from @drowsyinvestor and @investing_bear — deep dive on $AXON with a special guest. Worth your time. #investing #stock #StockMarket

[Drowsy Investor (Shooting the Bull Pod) @drowsyinvestor]

BE ON THE LOOK OUT: New episode of Shooting The Bull Pod With @investing_bear and me dropping soon! A lot of you have asked for us to go deep on $AXON and we will do just that with our special guest!

We’ll look back at the great Q and see what’s next for the company. 💤🧸👊

[Ben Pouladian @benitoz]

I read a lot of Peter Lynch. Met him once. The one rule I carry into tech investing is the most boring one he ever wrote, know what you own, down to the physics if the position demands it. For me that has meant living inside NVIDIA's stack for years, and pulling apart the alternatives next to it, Trainium, the TPU, every serious accelerator someone is willing to tape out against Jensen. I was also an early investor in Mellanox, the networking company NVIDIA bought to own the switched fabric the entire scale up era now runs on. So when the conversation turns to networking as the real moat, this is not theory to me. It is a position I watched become the thesis. You do not understand what you own until you understand what could take it.

@GavinSBaker at @SohnIdeaContest just gave the most physically grounded read on AI infrastructure I have heard this cycle, and it is a Lynch lesson in disguise. The reframe that matters:

The last terrestrial mega data center may already be on someone's drawing board.

Everything else follows from two constraints, watts and wafers, and Gavin walks both down to first principles. That is the work. Most people are pricing the narrative. Lynch would have asked what the thing actually is.

1. TSMC is the global rate limiter

Jensen reportedly visits every quarter asking to double or triple leading edge capacity. TSMC expands at roughly 5 percent. A handful of disciplined operators in Taiwan are the physical governor on the entire AI buildout.

This is the part the bubble crowd misses. The constraint is not demand and it is not capital. It is one fab's deliberate refusal to overbuild. That stretches the cycle longer and smoother instead of bubble and bust. It reads like the mid 1990s capacity cycle, not a standard 25 year memory peak where a 60 to 70 percent price spike would be your signal to cut the weed and walk.

I have held NVIDIA since 2016 for exactly this reason. Owning it meant understanding it. The thesis was never the chip. It was the chokepoint.

2. The most underestimated silicon is Trainium

Consensus is still pricing a one horse race. Gavin's sharpest non NVIDIA call is AWS Trainium, specifically Trainium 3 ramping in the back half of 2026. Here is the part that took me a while to internalize from studying these architectures side by side. As frontier models go fully Mixture of Experts, inference stops being a matmul problem and becomes a networking problem. You need a switched scale up fabric, not just fast chips. Today two organizations on earth have a working one. NVIDIA and Amazon. NVIDIA's came from Mellanox, which is the whole reason I sized that position the way I did years ago, the bet was always that networking would decide this, not raw flops. The TPU is formidable in its own lane, but the scale up fabric is the moat people are not modeling, and it is why I track every accelerator, not just the one I own.

3. The neocloud moat is operational, not arbitrage

The lazy take is that CoreWeave and Crusoe are just renting hyperscaler slack. Gavin's counter is that running dense GPU clusters is like driving an F1 car. Looks easy until you try it. Top tier neoclouds run 2 to 3x the hardware utilization per hour of lower tier providers. That is an execution and inventory moat, and it compounds.

4. The structural short nobody is pricing

Watts and wafers eventually force the buildout off the planet. Gavin expects orbital data infrastructure to prove technical and economic viability within roughly two years and take meaningful share by the end of the decade. Space solves power with unattenuated solar and solves cooling with massive radiators in the satellite's own shadow. Dense single rack nodes stitched together with lasers into a virtual hyperscale cluster in orbit.

The unpriced risk is everything that over expanded to serve a terrestrial buildout. Cooling, power, industrial equipment names sized for a curve that may bend down within seven years.

The whole interview is a lesson in pattern recognition over narrative. Lynch built a career on retail investors knowing their companies better than Wall Street did. The same edge exists in AI infrastructure right now, it just requires you to understand watts and wafers instead of same store sales. If you are not modeling the physical boundaries of the stack through the lens of history, you are not underwriting the position. You are following it.

[Investment Friend @CalmTrader102]

@BlueChipPremium I am eyeing $LITE for an add today.

[Abbas Khan ⟠ @KhanAbbas201]

This is literally insane

guy had 5 BTC locked in a wallet for 9 years

dumped his old college computer into Claude as a hail mary

Claude found the wallet file, debugged btcrecover's password logic, decrypted the keys, converted to WIF, recovered the funds

We are so unbelievably early

[Investment Friend @CalmTrader102]

@ConnorJBates_ 😂 Yeah, I picked up more $GLW and $LITE along with a nice tranche of $MU

[Investment Friend @CalmTrader102]

@BlueChipPremium I increased my position in $LITE this morning, 3% allocation, I got a little to excited. I already had a decent starter and it surprised me when I got the alert that it was coming down to the $940 area which was my established add on location.

[Investment Friend @CalmTrader102]

@anni_sen 😂

[Investment Friend @CalmTrader102]

@benitoz @insane_analyst 🔥

[Investment Friend @CalmTrader102]

@KreizJordy @benitoz 😂

[Investment Friend @CalmTrader102]

@KreizJordy @benitoz I picked these up for you! Lol

[Investment Friend @CalmTrader102]

@KreizJordy @benitoz I know your taste lol 😂