Camal

@Polymarket Efficiency Provider
hidden dragon of the jianghu - Lolakis
All views, visuals and ideas my own.

[Camal @Camal_pm]

1) And it’s time for Episode 2. Raskell made $17.5k trading Iran's airspace and still has $16.1k riding on No

@raskellpm prices war markets better than you and everything else exactly like you (so long as you’re not shit)

🧵

[Camal @Camal_pm]

ITS A HOLD
I called it the day after CPI. Thanks for playing.

https://t.co/ZjPQtXKfhC

[Camal @Camal_pm]

Producer prices came in hot this morning, a day after CPI did the same, and traders are pricing a real shot at a Warsh hike this month.

My model still has a hold at 94%. Polymarket says 72%. One of us is going to look dumb. Who?

[Camal @Camal_pm]

My model says Wednesday hold is a lock. @Polymarket still leaves 8% on a hike and I can't see where it comes from. Called this back when Hold was trading at 72c.

https://t.co/jOVGBw1ClP
https://t.co/p3dJqWxZ7x

[Camal @Camal_pm]

@usedibs These are priced as touch/barrier contracts. In any case I love a dirty arb

[Camal @Camal_pm]

$BTC puts at $55K costs about 6x more on @Polymarket than in the options market. The moonshots are pretty expensive too whilst the strikes near spot trade cheap. Anyone gonna take advantage of the potential arb here?

https://t.co/lilr0v1f4U

[Camal @Camal_pm]

Canada hikes Wednesday morning and the Fed stays at a hold that afternoon. Its shaping up to be a good week ahead on @Polymarket

https://t.co/ozGdNEaEJQ
https://t.co/WcZIkzFw9T

[Camal @Camal_pm]

Give me a @Polymarket market you think is priced wrong and why and I'll take a look at it for you

[Camal @Camal_pm]

@0xd1namit More so that someone posted a couple hundred shares on Dembele Y at 99c odd, sniped the 1c No and hedged it immediately. Was good timing🤣

[Camal @Camal_pm]

@arbprediction @Polymarket I’ve always liked having a few nukes in my portfolio though. Wakes me up better than coffee in the morning

[Camal @Camal_pm]

Damn it’s almost like probabilities work the way they are supposed to.

A wise man once said free money turns into great debt

[Vance 2028 Enthusiast 🇺🇸 @Real_Vance_Fan]

Example #1,000,000 on how betting markets have no predictive value:

[Camal @Camal_pm]

https://t.co/SoFSZY0z0I
https://t.co/p8ELMDzaf3

[Camal @Camal_pm]

Check this out lol, the market is paying you to hold Oil.

June WTI is $12.81 under December so if nothing changes a long June future rolls up about 14% by expiry, this is justa carry trade betting on the spot ride up. It rarely loses, nut on the off chance it does, its a pretty spectacular loss.

Would I trade this with Trump in Office and a shakey Rep Midterms coming up? No, which is probably why its there in the first place

[Camal @Camal_pm]

Maduro has been in US custody since January and @Polymarket (@Domahhhh ) still has him 81% to be Venezuela's leader on New Year's Eve. Their supreme court calls it a temporary absence, what a rule cuck

https://t.co/iPszyqR4Lt
https://t.co/kEgQX4yMkD
https://t.co/eBHYPLHGMU

[Bloomberg @business]

Venezuela and the US are setting up a path toward elections in the South American country that would be triggered by declaring a vacancy in the office, which technically has been empty since Nicolás Maduro was captured in January. https://t.co/h2blEtbhKr

[Camal @Camal_pm]

Beijing's airport has sat on 15C for an hour and @Polymarket still has 55% on it finding one more degree. GET THE HAIRDRYER OUT

https://t.co/KoAseLlaDR
https://t.co/A4cth2hDW8

[Camal @Camal_pm]

@penguin_pmkt I’m saying it’s a lock🤣 good bonds haha

[Camal @Camal_pm]

The official Ballon d'Or website published winner articles for Kane, Mbappé and Yamal by mistake today and then pulled all three🤣. Mbappé went from 16% at noon to 26% on @Polymarket while everyone argued over which page was real

https://t.co/TGJm1lRT44
https://t.co/GC3N4PfNwS
https://t.co/O6gZvo5eNP

[Camal @Camal_pm]

ARMAN DISPUTED.

And he was correct (only for this quoted chart 16). Turns out camels arent perfect at coding, must be the hooves.

Once adjusting for reality, the picture looks slightly different (Arman lost more🤣) But to be fair, so did Rex.

I dont plan on posting false info now or anytime in the future. Thanks for the correction

[Camal @Camal_pm]

16) I will hold-off on Rex flips (potential scams) in this thread (this is a well coveted thing he is so widely known for and will save it for his weekly account deep-dive)

But I will show you the 'scam' flips that impacted Arman in this Head-to-Head.

Arman got caught in the crossfire five times

Ronaldo crying at the World Cup was the worst

[Camal @Camal_pm]

@liquidated777 @armanonpoly @Rex416_NFT done 🤝

[Camal @Camal_pm]

1) ITS TIME. 🧵🧵🧵(MEGATHREAD)

From once close friends to an often Polymod refereed feud. @armanonpoly and @Rex416_NFT now finally have the head-to-head many have been waiting for.

Some might call them both the worst sizers on poly with volatility even 10x leveraged perps struggle to replicate.

Enjoy the show.

[Camal @Camal_pm]

@Konfuciouss Done 🤝