Liquidated Degen

elections and politics bettor with 6 figure profits, but a little bit less after Lula's victory

[Liquidated Degen @liquidated777]

Top 10 wins this year:

Colombian elections: +$57K cumulative
U.S. government shutdowns: +$57K cumulative

And throw in a random NCAA football game for good measure.

[Liquidated Degen @liquidated777]

@jmtiiSrq @RaysBaseball @MLBONFOX @MLB When nothing is working you need to go against conventional wisdom

[Liquidated Degen @liquidated777]

Bad news, lost my Rays World Series futures but recovered my principal + tiny profit

Good news is my Brewers World Series hat arrives tomorrow

[Liquidated Degen @liquidated777]

@reporterliz please report on it asap I am counting on you Liz

[Liquidated Degen @liquidated777]

Kalshi really have their whole team posting corpo slop when they know very well that people make election bets based on what the media reports and what the polls say 🤣

[Liquidated Degen @liquidated777]

Re: Iran

I haven't traded Iran-related markets in a while, but I've been keeping a close eye on the news.

Tell me I'm wrong, but I think the odds of the blockade ending this week (before Oct. 31) are a bit undervalued.

All signs point toward negotiations, whether in the Middle East or with Russia tomorrow.

If Trump wants to make a dramatic move before the midterms, this is his window. Even a short-term deal wouldn't stop him from bombing Iran later. And if there's one thing we know about Trump, it's that he's not afraid to pull the trigger (for a deal or take action).

I guess we'll find out this week.

[Liquidated Degen @liquidated777]

@Camal_pm @armanonpoly @Rex416_NFT analyze all my amazing underdog trades pls

[Liquidated Degen @liquidated777]

@mikehtrujillo @ByRobinEpley will you go on @EventualNews please

[Liquidated Degen @liquidated777]

Looks like Flavio has a new daddy

[Liquidated Degen @liquidated777]

My thesis for the upcoming Brazilian elections is simple. If Flavio Bolsonaro wins, he can free his father. If he loses, he'll have to call Lula his new daddy. 🇧🇷

[Liquidated Degen @liquidated777]

@alch3my101 just hedge and tell him after

[Liquidated Degen @liquidated777]

@PresidentBlumph Yeah I had open Flavio position. Had Flavio since last year

[Liquidated Degen @liquidated777]

Markets will always find a way to humble you quickly if you get complacent. Stay vigilant.

[Liquidated Degen @liquidated777]

@_enriquemora Make it back with new VZ markets related to Machado and potential political upheavals there

[Liquidated Degen @liquidated777]

@TheTieTieTies @AntSeed sent

[Liquidated Degen @liquidated777]

Crazy weekend. Niners lost. Rays down 0-2. Flavio Bolsonaro lost. One of those weeks 🤷

[Liquidated Degen @liquidated777]

@hellohalofixer it's over bro

[Liquidated Degen @liquidated777]

Will Basenji do it again for the Nth time?

[Basenji @cryptobasenji]

🇧🇷🗳️Does Lula still have a chance?🐾🧵

Before October 4, every major poll had Lula ahead, the polls missed the gap by 3 to 5 points toward Lula.

However since the first round AtlasIntel cross-tabulates voting intention against what each respondent actually voted on October 4, and very likely weights by that vote.

If the official result is already inside the weighting, subtracting the miss again would count it twice. This is the single most important assumption I introduced to my model, and we say so up front.

[Liquidated Degen @liquidated777]

Hmm, someone called this exact scenario. I wonder who 🥹 If this actually happens Retailleau will get a massive pump! 🇫🇷

[Frédéric Delpech @fredericdelpech]

Présidentielle 2027

Les sondages se suivent et confirment l'atonie du bloc central et de la droite : la qualification au second tour s'éloigne....

Certains estiment qu'une primaire Philippe Attal Retailleau est désormais "inéluctable" et serait la seule perspective

[Liquidated Degen @liquidated777]

@alch3my101 random - Why isn't Daniel Craig still bond?

[Liquidated Degen @liquidated777]

@keendawg @EventualNews @mikehtrujillo