S&P 500 has erased all its losses since the Iran conflict and may have bottomed for 2026.
Looking at the average path of major conflicts post World War II, $SPX has typically bottomed within the first few weeks.
In 8 of 20 cases, low was formed within the first month.
@Bluekurtic The wars that I referred to are: Korean War, Algerian War, Kosovo Conflict, Annexation of Crimea, Yemeni Civil War and Ukraine/Russia War. Years were 1950, 1954, 1998, 2014, 2022. Original post - 2/2
@Bluekurtic Good to know that it doesn’t fade even as the S&P moves up.
Supportive of this is the September crude contract just changing trend to the upside on the daily timeframe after tagging the 200sma https://t.co/UbECxOwyn0
@Bluekurtic Gamma as of the close on Friday showed significant put open interest that dealers would be incentivized to keep price above. Intraday however there is a lot of call exposure 🤷♂️
@DoomerTard@Bluekurtic Any idea how or why there is a reduction in liquidity? My first guess would be because interest rates are rising in the US and in Japan (pulling money back there), however the M2SL has been rising consistently so it’s not the first layer that’s an issue
@PeterBerezinBCA I checked energy, healthcare, utilities and some gold miners and they held up similar to how you’re showing in 2000 as the SPX rolled over for several months.