Cameron Garrett

Polls and politics @Moreincommon_
Views my own 📈

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

Some new polling on Tony Blair’s intervention last week and how it landed with the public. Labour and Conservative voters were the most likely to say that the Labour Party should pay attention to Blair’s advice.

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

How do people describe main party leaders in their own words. The world clouds below give you a flavour of what the public say.
For Starmer biggest word is weak, For Farage racist,
For Badenoch OK
For Davey don’t know
How negative they are neatly captures an anti politics mood

[Cameron Garrett @CameronGarrett_]

Had to do it for that slogan tbh

[Count Binface @CountBinface]

BINFACE 2026

[The Opinion Brief @opinionbriefpod]

"Makerfield is a seat that Reform should always expect to win, for every reason other than it's in Greater Manchester."

@LukeTryl and Charlie Buckley on whether Burnham's Manchester X-factor is enough for him to win the upcoming by-election.

Find this week's episode here: https://t.co/RrRRvIsamD

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

🧵With Keir Starmer facing mounting criticism within his own ranks, we asked people in their own words what they felt his biggest achievement as Prime Minister had been. While 'nothing' dominates, the Iran War and Trump also featured as does the NHS/waiting lists.

[Sophie Stowers @SophieStowers]

In this week’s very well timed @opinionbriefpod I’m chatting about our polling on potential Labour leadership hopefuls - including Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting 👀🌹

Have a listen here - https://t.co/PSTNLyWMrv

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

Doing this health warning now: MRP projections or UNS swings of Makerfield aren't designed for by-elections. They don't take account of specific nature of by-elections and Burnham's personal vote which from every focus group I can tell you is real. IMO Burnham starts as favourite

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

In a series of northern wards, it wasn’t simply the case the Tories sent Reform and Labour lost to the Greens, the size of the right bloc grew. Some of that will be differential turnout, but some, and our qual back this up was Lab-Ref switchers.

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

Both the big two parties are struggling to hold their seats. Labour are losing nearly two thirds of theirs so far. The Tories so far only managing a 50% retention rate.

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

First from my list of councils to watch and Reform totally dominate in Hartlepool winning all 12 seats. Tories now have 0 seats in the place that flew a Boris blimp only 5 years ago.

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

Overnight team locked in and ready

(To be clear the full team is more gender balanced! This was just who volunteered for this shift).

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

🧵 Polls have now closed. Here's some of what I might think they might tell us. While much of the focus will be on the future of the PM, important though that is, I think the lessons will be way bigger & tell us a lot about the social contract, party system & future of the UK.

[Lewis Warner @LewisJWarner]

🚨 A bombshell Birmingham poll just dropped on the eve of voting

➡️ RFM: 47
👤 IND: 17
🌹 LAB: 14
🌍 GRN: 12
🌳 CON: 6
🔶 LDM: 5

Labour faces its WORST ever result in the city

Independents surge to become 2nd largest group
https://t.co/r9N2OM6lvI

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

Final Holyrood voting intention on the eve of the election. SNP still lead but their vote share has dipped in the final week of the campaign - and Labour making last-minute gains.

Fieldwork: 30 April - 4 May

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

Just looking over some data ahead of our elections webinar later and Zack Polanski’s net approval rating has fallen by a fairly chunky 14 points over the last week. Still far ahead of Starmer but also puts him now well below the top three of Badenoch, Davey and Farage.

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

Our Final Welsh MRP finds Labour being squeezed. Plaid leading on vote share but tied with Reform on seats and clutch of highly marginal 6th seats

🌼Plaid Cymru 34 seats
➡️Reform UK 34 seats
🌹Labour 14 seats
🌳Conservatives 9 seats
💚Greens 5 seats

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

🧵Our Second Holyrood MRP, out today sees the SNP gaining ground compared to our last estimate but still short of a majority, a Green-SNP majority more likely, Reform are in second, Labour have slipped back, but many constituencies are very marginal & small shifts change lots

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

We know Labour's coalition is splitting in lots of directions.
How does that differ between men and women? Labour's retention is higher among men, though more 2024 Labour women say don't know. Labour are losing slightly more men to Reform & slightly more women to the Greens

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

It’s worth digging into this a bit further. Badenoch’s approvals have gone up, but the Conservative vote share remains resolutely flat around 20%. Badenoch positive approval was below the Tory vote share till around conference and jumped above it post her budget response.

[Cameron Garrett @CameronGarrett_]

And in a definite career low point...

Three in ten (29%) admit they have used a sex toy before, although a sizeable 10% prefer not to say 🤫

Compared to other parties, Greens are more than twice as likely to be using sex toys on a frequent basis.

[Cameron Garrett @CameronGarrett_]

🍆NEW @Moreincommon_ poll is sure to cause a BUZZ 🍑

71% say it's inappropriate for MPs to bring sex toys into Parliament for a summer of sex...

People from across the political spectrum are against it - but Reform and Conservative voters much more so than Green supporters

[Cameron Garrett @CameronGarrett_]

One in four (25%) think that discussions about sex need to become more common in public life- but a similar proportion say otherwise.