@TimothyBuffett@WaltLightShed The sell side gets very wedded to a specific narrative (I used to be a sell side analyst). Narrative gets disconnected from price levels. Walt has been right so far, and he wants to continue being right telling the same story. But at this price, the story is different.
@EarningsB4Hugs These conferences are absolutely used as general meeting forums with I-bankers and investors of all sorts. The presentation to equity investors is almost an afterthought. The presentation rooms are usally empty. It’s 100% about the private meetings
@troyhunt Could you index the actual driver’s license number where it returns a simple yes/no whether it was in the breach? I realize it’s a new workflow but this might be the most impactful breach ever.
A prediction about $CCOI based on reading tea leaves: Company may announce plans to sell more data centers than the 14 currently marketed. YouTube channel has 31 listed (not including ones sold in last round) in a way that makes them look empty and for sale.
Power capacity is not listed in all the videos, but most of the smaller DCs look to be 5,000-10,000 sf which is probably <1/2 MW each. So don’t get too excited. Probably talking LSD million per facility. But every little bit helps.
If I’m right, this was likely motivated by debt refi not going well. 2032s traded over 12% yield today and deal has obviously been delayed based on typical Wall Street time lines.
@BetterIRR I am working on $AAP. If they can get margins up even to half that of peers, multiple will re-rate and you get a 3x. I believe this is the right mgmt to do it, and they are making demonstrable progress.
$CCOI adding some waves marketing videos to its YouTube channel today. Including one specifically aimed at financial services. Also some videos recently marketing 5 more data centers (Tacoma, Minneapolis, San Jose, Orlando, Hollywood FL)
@AlexHalkias1@WaltLightShed Not ‘27. But ‘28-‘30 FCF is entirely dependent on whether they grow on-net revenue (IP, waves, IPv4, IRU leases). That’s the difference in a $20 asset liquidation and an $80 going concern. Dave is smart and surely sees this. Hence the great confusion among shareholders.
@dcblocher You can treat it as a corporate client (the HOA is the corporate) or you can white label the infrastructure and let someone else handle the billing and customer service.
A thread of creative things $CCOI could do with its assets to escape its debt trap, but inexplicably doesn’t, probably due to some endowment bias on the part of the founder: 1/x
@AlexHalkias1@WaltLightShed I’m not defending Walt’s price target bc he gives too little credit to asset value. But Cogent must get more revenue to absorb the fixed costs they have assumed. Dave has lacked urgency to do that, but it is possible, even if they merely IRU the dark fiber.