CapAnalytics

NFL & Sports Betting Analytics

[CapAnalytics @CapAnalytics7]

Based on an article by @UnabatedSports, I was able to create a simulator for March Madness based a few different rating systems. Below are the results with my projected betting odds to make each round. The model really thinks its between the four 1 seeds for the title.

[CapAnalytics @CapAnalytics7]

@2Hats1Mike Could this be a situation where they saw what happened in Tampa Bay where they let Coen/Canales walk and kept Todd Bowles? Didn’t want the same thing to happen to them because they thought Brady would get a HC chance

[CapAnalytics @CapAnalytics7]

@NFL @tylershough2 @chrisolave_ @insidetheNFL Rookie of the year

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@PFF Rookie of the year

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@nick_underhill @RapSheet Rookie of the year

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@JoeA_NFL He’s got some momentum in the betting markets last couple weeks

[CapAnalytics @CapAnalytics7]

@inpredict Looked into this. Offenses definitely performed better when needing to score. I defined a must score drive as a drive by the trailing team started in overtime or with less than 5 minutes in the 4th quarter and within 2 scores. Offenses performed better in EPA and success rate.

[CapAnalytics @CapAnalytics7]

Josh Allen had his best 4th quarter of his career and one of the best 4th quarter performances since 1999.

[CapAnalytics @CapAnalytics7]

@jeffma @BetTheProcess @RufusPeabody Cardinals

[CapAnalytics @CapAnalytics7]

The Alexander Isak/Hugo Ekitike storyline is going to be fascinating this summer. Feels like if Isak stays, then Ekitike will head to #Liverpool, but if Isak leaves then Ekitike will go to #Newcastle. Isak is a better finisher than Ekitike, but other than that they are very similar as excellent creators and dribblers. If #Newcastle manage to keep Isak and get Ekitike would be awesome to watch.

[CapAnalytics @CapAnalytics7]

With #Juventus signing Jonathan David they are getting a very different player than Vlahovic. David is a much more dynamic ball carrier and attempts better shots than Vlahovic as shown in the shot charts below, but lacks the aerial ability of Vlahovic.

[CapAnalytics @CapAnalytics7]

Here's a breakdown of #ManchesterUnited 's for the 2024-25 season. For a team that is nowhere near competing for big trophies their wages are too focused on players in their prime. They've started to clean this up by letting players like Eriksen, Evans, and Lindelof go

[CapAnalytics @CapAnalytics7]

@lauriewhitwell Watkins would definitely be an upgrade on Hojlund. Watkins's output has been consistently better than Hojlund's. He creates more than Hojlund as well and has a superior ability in the air. However, given his age I don't think its the right signing for United

[CapAnalytics @CapAnalytics7]

A little surprised by these radars. Eze dominates Rodrygo in terms of xG generation. That probably has a lot to do with Eze being more of a focal point of Palace's attack than Rodrygo. Both fail to take valuable shots and successful ball carriers. Rodrygo would be the better more proven signing than Eze, but it would also cost more. Will interesting to see who #Arsenal ends up signing

[CapAnalytics @CapAnalytics7]

#Arsenal have brought in 2 similar combative players this summer which are fully capable of replacing Jorginho and Partey.

[CapAnalytics @CapAnalytics7]

A look at how Norgard will help replace Partey and Jorginho. Norgard will add a goal threat especially in the air adding to the set piece FC narrative. Norgard is a combative midfielder with strong defensive stats, but lacks some of the carrying ability of the departing midfielders.

[CapAnalytics @CapAnalytics7]

If #Chelsea are successful in acquiring Jamie Gittens, they will be getting a raw prospect. He's a better ball carrier than Sancho, but lacks the passing of Sancho. He also does not take very valuable shots shown through his low xG/shot. When comparing him to Garnacho another rumored target, you can see they are similar with Garnacho being more productive in front of goal and Gittens being a better ball carrier.

[CapAnalytics @CapAnalytics7]

This is not what I was expecting to see when comparing Havertz vs Sesko. They are surprisingly similar in their profiles. Havertz is the better creator, but Sesko is the better dribbler and physically dominant.