Ludgero Parreira

Investor & Trader | Commodities & Crypto | Navigating markets for growth and gains

[Ludgero Parreira @CapParreira]

Where is Alt Season?
Many people feel that #ALTSEASON has abandoned them, but is that really the case, or is it simply taking longer to arrive? After all, alt season doesn't always follow the same punctuality as the British.

A quick scan of social media will reveal that the most common question on everyone's minds is: When will alt season start? Variations like "Is it happening soon?" or "Has it already begun?" are widespread. However, unless you have a crystal ball or can read tarot cards, predicting the market's next move is nearly impossible.

What you can do is analyze key metrics, which can provide valuable insights to inform your decisions. Remember, your goal isn't to predict, but to make well-informed decisions based on available data.

Analyzing the Performance of Top 100 Coins

Let's take a closer look at the top 100 cryptocurrencies listed on CoinMarketCap, excluding stablecoins. We’ll assess how altcoins have performed since Bitcoin (BTC) started its rally in January 2023.

$BTC entered its rally in January 2023, pausing for a range-bound period from March 2024 to October 2024. During this time, #BTC reached a new all-time high (ATH) of approximately $73.7K. It then pushed higher, setting another ATH around $109.6K. As of December 2024, #BTC is in a new range.

Key Altcoin Parameters During a Typical Alt Season

During a traditional alt season, you’d typically see the following:

. A $BTC halving event
. $BTC completing its rally and transitioning into a sideways movement, prompting alts to start rising
. Rotation from #BTC to altcoins
. A noticeable uptrend in total market cap (Total3) along with altcoins
. Strong daily gains with high volume across altcoins
. Individual altcoin projects experiencing daily percentage gains of 10%, 20%, 30%, or more
. Several altcoins reaching new all-time highs (ATHs)
. Increased retail interest and social media buzz around crypto

Let’s break down the altcoins based on their performance:

Group 1: Altcoins That Didn't Follow
LTC, DOT, XMR, APT, ICP, ETC, VET, CRO, ALGO, FIL, ATOM, THETA, IMX, GRT, FLR, QNT, SAND, EOS, XTZ, BTT, MKR, IOTA, GALA, FLOW, NEO, AR

Group 2: Altcoins That Followed
ETH, DOGE, ADA, LINK, AVAX, XML, HBAR, SHIB, BCH, UNI, NEAR, AAVE, DEXE, RAY, XDC, JASMY, ENS, NEXO, SPX, AERO

Group 3: Altcoins That Followed With New all-time highs (ATHs)
XRP, SOL, BNB, TRON, TON, SUI, LEO, HYPE, BGB, OM, PEPE, ONDO, MNT, TRUMP, OKB, TAO, KAS, JUP, RENDER, ENA, FET, GT, LDO, JTO

Why Is Alt Season Taking Longer?

So, why are some altcoins following the typical alt season patterns (Group 3, Group 2 not far behind), while others are lagging? The answer: this time is different.
If you look at the Total3 chart (above), we can see that the total market cap peaked at $1.16 trillion, which is the same level as the top of the last alt season in November 2021. Yet, only a few alts are showing significant movement.

Why?

. Increased Token Supply:The number of crypto tokens in circulation has exploded. As of February 2025, there are 36.4 million crypto tokens, compared to fewer than 3,000 in 2017. With the same liquidity but vastly more tokens, it’s harder for individual projects to thrive.
. Liquidity Constraints: For altcoins to experience the same results they did during the 2021 alt season, we would need approximately $4.368 quadrillion in market cap. While we must exclude dead projects and rug-pulls, the sheer number of active tokens makes it more challenging to see broad success.

Solana’s Dominance: Approximately 70% of the tokens in circulation are from the #Solana chain, largely due to popular meme platforms like pump-fun. Personally, I believe these projects are more about fun than utility and contribute little to the overall market, but if you enjoy them, that’s your choice.

What Investors Are Looking For

With such a large number of tokens to choose from, investors are increasingly selective. They tend to favor altcoins that have been around for a while, have strong utility, and are still attractive — like $ETH. Additionally, trending sectors such as #AI, #RWA, and #gaming are drawing attention to projects like $SUI, $ONDO, and $SOL.

Another important factor to consider is the pricing of projects. During the 2021 alt season, many projects were significantly overpriced. People were often paying more than the actual value of these assets, driven largely by inexperienced retail investors and the fear of missing out (#FOMO). This resulted in inflated prices and daily gains of several dollars per coin. Additionally, the COVID lockdowns played a role, as people had more time and money to invest.

In my opinion, the next alt season won't see the same level of price craziness. As a result, many investors may not recognize the alt season when it arrives, as it won’t be as extreme as what we witnessed in 2021.

Final Thoughts

Liquidity is a major challenge in the market right now. With so many tokens in circulation, not all of them can thrive. As a result, this alt season is different — only a select few tokens are experiencing growth, while many others remain stagnant. Unless a significant portion of tokens (around 90%) are burned and liquidity shifts back to utility-driven tokens, it’s hard to see how the overall market can sustain a broader rally.

One thing that concerns me deeply is the combination of time and market dips. While it's often said that dips are opportunities to buy, the real question is: Is this the right time? The last alt season was three years ago, and when you factor in dips and price crashes, it leads many to panic and question whether the market is truly over. With each dip, we lose more brave investors, and with them, more liquidity.

In the future, I hope investors focus on projects with genuine utility, rather than speculative memes. Platforms like pump-fun already face lawsuits, and with regulation on the horizon in the US, the meme-driven fun could soon come to an end.

The market is also filled with manipulative traders who pump and dump altcoins for quick profits, then rotate back into #BTC. Until clearer regulation and greater transparency emerge, it’s difficult to see how the market can develop sustainably.

In the meantime, all you can do is analyze the data, follow the money, and make informed decisions. I can’t make those decisions for you, but based on the information shared, I encourage you to study your projects carefully. Understand why some are lagging and assess whether it’s time to rotate into others or continue holding.

With a potential "Crypto President" (fingers crossed), ETFs, funds, and Trump-backed World Liberty Financial buying up crypto like $ONDO and $ETH, it’s crucial to follow the money. I haven’t mentioned the $TRUMP meme coin, and I hope you're learning something from this report—seriously. Even Trump knows the game. He’s using the $TRUMP token to rotate into utility-driven projects, and in doing so, you're essentially giving him free money.

You also need to assess your own projects and determine if they align with the current market narrative. Right now, everyone is focused on AI and RWA projects, and there's a lot of greed fueling this trend.

Just a piece of advice: Never marry your bags (unless it’s #BTC). Take profits when possible, or rotate your altcoins.

While I haven’t focused much on #BTC in this report, with all the positive developments surrounding it — such as ETFs, funds, and growing reserves — #BTC is likely to continue its upward trend in the years ahead. If #BTC isn’t already part of your portfolio, it should be.

Patience is key, and knowledge is your best friend. Don’t base your decisions on the opinions of others. I’ve seen countless people claim that alt season has started — for the 1,000th time. They aren’t your friends; they’re just generating clicks.

Be cautious, stay safe, and good luck.

#thebullledger #bullledgerreport #crypto #Altcoins #BTC #altseason #markets #cryptomarket

[Ludgero Parreira @CapParreira]

@urso_de_shorts Mas é que ninguém ainda percebeu a jogada dela ?!!! a politica para ela acabou-se e precisa de novo tacho, nada como se colar na greta e nas causas financiadas por quem tem dinheiro para continuar a sua vidinha...

[Ludgero Parreira @CapParreira]

@SICNoticias e mais uns quantos votos para o @PartidoCHEGA, obrigado sic...

[Ludgero Parreira @CapParreira]

@JornalNoticias mais votos para o Chega obrigado ...

[Ludgero Parreira @CapParreira]

@BullionStar Just look at the volume from last year and this year, this is different, something big is about to happen.

[Ludgero Parreira @CapParreira]

@JoanaMortagua @LMontenegro_PT É uma ideia genial ... fonex ...

[Ludgero Parreira @CapParreira]

@expresso Quem é isabel moreira ?

[Ludgero Parreira @CapParreira]

@IsabelLMMoreira Vocês têm é SEDES de vitória, mas o caminho é sempre para baixo, tem de se habituar.

[Ludgero Parreira @CapParreira]

@CryptoMichNL 😂

[Ludgero Parreira @CapParreira]

@CryptoMichNL You need your vacation bro...

[Ludgero Parreira @CapParreira]

@govpt o que eu preciso saber é quando são as próximas eleições ?

[Ludgero Parreira @CapParreira]

@DrProfitCrypto Say something ... 😂 we dump soon dont worry.

[Ludgero Parreira @CapParreira]

@SimonDixonTwitt Market manipulation, what makes he different from nancy pelosi ? He uses his influence and tweets to control the heading of the market. Just do the opposite of what he tweets, people will be allright.

[Ludgero Parreira @CapParreira]

@3orovik Dump soon, Trump is getting his next tweet ready.

[Ludgero Parreira @CapParreira]

@LayahHeilpern Yes everything Trump writes is manipulation, finally people get it. Just do the opposite of what he writes.

[Ludgero Parreira @CapParreira]

@govpt @mpresidencia_pt Será que podemos ir a novas eleições ? já me está apetecer...

[Ludgero Parreira @CapParreira]

@jl_carneiro Alguma razão para não ter filmado isto no Martim Moniz?

[Ludgero Parreira @CapParreira]

@catarina_mart Alguma previsão de quando vão falar dos problemas dos portugueses? É para um amigo ...

[Ludgero Parreira @CapParreira]

@SICNoticias Quando é que marcamos novas eleições quando é?

[Ludgero Parreira @CapParreira]

@dntwit Isto será a mesma empresa que realiza as sondagens ? Estamos conversados...

[Ludgero Parreira @CapParreira]

@mimimimiguel7 deputados do PS para 2025 ?