Coffee

Buy-Side Analyst and a hot coffee. Director of non-coffee related Macro Research. Don’t take investment advice from a cardboard cup.

[Coffee @Capital2Coffee]

$LIFE is giving life.

#ReturnofFintech

[Coffee @Capital2Coffee]

After many years, it feels like a good time to be bullish again on Fintech

[Coffee @Capital2Coffee]

@RealJimChanos Just wait until you see what the regulators allow in the cayman portfolios lol

[Coffee @Capital2Coffee]

@RyeNotBerben The British East Indian Company owned an entire country and controlled the capacity to tax, so it’s not unprecedented.

Also doesn’t hurt that they own all the economically viable ships.

[Coffee @Capital2Coffee]

@dampedspring @GavinSBaker With that same logic a ~15bps+ rate increase the treasury curve would result in a similar equity sell off, since that would have an equivalent cost of capital impact.

[Coffee @Capital2Coffee]

With Chinese small drone delivery costs being <$1.00/trip, and Zipline growing rapidly in the US, how does $DASH or $UBER Eats remain viable when human delivery service offerings are worse in every dimension vs. drone based delivery?

[Coffee @Capital2Coffee]

Random thought of the day…

The Great Moderation wasn’t a triumph of smart central banking.

Instead, 1980s globalization allowed the US to export the manufacturing bullwhip effect.

Reversing this means importing the volatility back leading to more frequent / severe recessions.

[Coffee @Capital2Coffee]

$HNGE’s growth and valuation reminds me of the setup for $TDOC and $HIMS before they got big (and then imploded).

The caveat is that it Hinge has a more resilient business model.

[Coffee @Capital2Coffee]

@Restructuring__ It’s just a promo, they’ll flip the APY down after a certain time period. Robinhood did a very similar thing

[Coffee @Capital2Coffee]

AVs which can be retrofitted as mini hotels, are the next logical step of AV tech. These vehicles should be a real disrupting force to hotels in pitstop towns

[Coffee @Capital2Coffee]

Two losers from AV tech that no one talks about are hotels and airlines.

Why spend $400 per plane ticket, when you get a first class experience via a AV car ride, when the door-to-door travel time is the same. Red eye AV car rides should also shrink the TAM of the hotel market.

[Coffee @Capital2Coffee]

@BillAckman @X You should definitely settle or be prepared to be dragged through the mud through a brutal discovery process.

[Coffee @Capital2Coffee]

@RampCapitalLLC I literally started reading this for the first time today.

[Coffee @Capital2Coffee]

This is probably the most important stat going into 2026.

The self driving car trade is about to swing into full gear and the clear winner is $GOOGL

https://t.co/RI4bpWqs1C

[Coffee @Capital2Coffee]

@Restructuring__ Tiger Management closed not Tiger Global

[Coffee @Capital2Coffee]

@RyeNotBerben So basically you get a debt instrument with crazy convexity which the put option gets valued off of, and that would increase that spread by a decent amount

[Coffee @Capital2Coffee]

A 50-year mortgage would have roughly the same monthly cost as a 30-year due to:

i) The shape of today’s yield curve; and

ii) The higher rate spread tied to the mortgage’s put options theta

[Coffee @Capital2Coffee]

@RyeNotBerben And the rate spreads that mortgages have vs treasuries (which is ~150bps higher vs treasuries currently) is mostly derived from the value of the put option borrowers get. Increasing the tenure from 30 to 50 years of that option implies a 66% increase…

[Coffee @Capital2Coffee]

With the added kicker that:

i) It takes much longer to pay down your mortgage
ii) Banks will have a really tough time owning the higher interest rate risk