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Jonathan Urlich
@CapitalJon
30 Year Veteran Global Macro Economic Forecaster.
Joined May 2013
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Read this great thread by Jim Bianco @biancoresearch on AI related companies capitalization that is now over 48% of the S&P 500.
The need for AI compute is enormous and we are still very early in this roll out.
1/5
The S&P 500 increasingly looks like two stock markets: AI-related companies and everybody else.
41 AI-related companies we track accounted for 48.68% of the S&P 500's combined market capitalization.
The remaining companies accounted for 51.32%.
Great post by Jim Bianco @biancoresearch on the cost of distillates. When you look at the price of #diesel particularly in #Europe and to a lesser extent the #US that cost impacts the price of all goods...
I agree, the market needs to start looking at the price of the stuff we use, distillates (gasoline/diesel), and not the raw material to make it (crude oil).
Diesel prices are soaring, especially in Europe.
Consider that Russia/Ukraine might matter more for energy markets.
--
Gasoil continues to soar in Europe, as the chart below shows. Gasoil is now well above May’s peak (when crude prices were over $140 per barrel).
Europe gets its diesel from Russia, and Ukraine keeps blowing up their refineries. Russian refinery output is down by more than half, and they’re no longer exporting diesel, and there’s a real shortage in Europe right now.
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Gasoil is the raw middle distillate that comes straight out of the refinery, and it serves as the foundation for a whole family of fuels — including road diesel (45% of all gasoil), jet fuel/kerosene (18%), industrial & agricultural off-road diesel (17%), heating oil (12%), and marine (bunker) fuel (8%) — each of which is further processed and refined to meet the specific standards of its end use.
Walk and talk on way to @CNBCFastMoney
"The Bond Market always wins" as quoted by @Michael_K_Farr... He is right. Keep an eye on the long end of UST...
The #FED needs to raise rates here but probably won't.
Watch out for Market volatility over the next 12 weeks...
Bond yields should come down on a short term rate hike, says @Michael_K_Farr
He weighs in on how the Fed should act after the latest in earnings season.
https://t.co/rjNvYnAPn4
Who to follow
Pippa Malmgren
@DrPippaM
https://t.co/JKqP6h9O3U - where I write on economics, geopolitics and tech. Award-winning author, Fmr US Presidential Advisor + tech entrepreneur Φ ☯︎ ∞
Dow
@mark_dow
Liquidity is a state of mind. Fiat enthusiast. 🇺🇸 🇮🇹 /s 🇪🇸 🇫🇷 🇵🇹
@BehavioralMacro
Reinman_MT
@reinman_mt
Ex AMEX option specialist and FX derivatives trader. Now a full time investor/trader and part time horse trainer. If I’m not here, I’m probably riding.
Nice idea @PKythreotis but we both know Politicians have a terrible track record at picking Winners!
The best approach to maximize GDP Growth is create a light regulatory environment and minimal corporate taxes with an effective transfer pricing regime...
The EU can increase its finances without raising taxes by leveraging joint debt, optimizing existing funds, mobilizing private capital and cracking down on financial waste, such as reducing or shifting funds away from CAP and Cohesion Funds and diverting them to high-growth
#Breaking...30-YEAR YIELD HIGHEST SINCE JULY 13, 2007...
In this environment Bond Investors need a higher yield.
Some pressure on Stocks but the Market will look through this.
Definitely a Stock Pickers Market here. The AI of everything people...
An interesting post on AI adoption for financial analysis...
We are now well beyond data scraping summation analytics. We are now at warp speed bot run battle mode agentic AI...
Exciting times people.
A big pivot from Ken Griffin on AI:
“Number one is, in the last few months, there has been a step change in the productivity of the AI toolkit. It is profoundly more powerful than it was just nine months ago.
And for us at Citadel, that has allowed us to unleash a much broader array of use cases for AI. And it has been really interesting to watch, to be blunt, work that we would usually do with people with masters and PhDs in finance over the course of weeks or months being done by AI agents over the course of hours or days.
These are not these are not mid-tier white collar jobs. These are like extraordinarily high skilled jobs being, I'm going to pick a word, automated by agentic AI. And I gotta tell you, I went home one Friday actually fairly depressed by this because you could just see how this was going to have such a dramatic impact on society.
When you witness it in your own four walls, when you see work that used to be man years of work being done in days or weeks, it's like, wow, like that's the first time I've seen real impact in our four walls.”
This echoes my own experience with agents and the conversations I am having with students, friends & clients. The toolkit has dramatically transformed and it feels like in finance, for the first time, AI is real.
For those who missed it yesterday.
What's wrong with economics, economists and the Economy https://t.co/HfLQeyMOxe via @YouTube
Financial firms like Blackstone and Blue Owl applying 'Gate' restrictions and limitations to withdrawals should be seeing as a 'canary in the coalmine' for the financial industry, suggesting that liquidity stress in private markets could trigger wider market volatility.
reaching $1.28 trillion.
Demographic Hardship: Gen Z and millennial borrowers are falling behind on payments at higher rates, especially for auto loans (over 7% delinquent).
The delinquency rate for the highest-income 10% of ZIP codes jumped 73% (4.8% in Q2 2022 to 8.3% in Q1 2025), while the lowest-income 10% saw a 53% increase (14.9% to 22.8%).
Total U.S. household debt hit an all-time high of $18.59 trillion in Q3 2025, with credit card debt
Driven by record-high debt ($1.28 trillion), high-interest rates (approx. 22.8% APR), and inflation, consumers—particularly in lower-income and younger demographics—are struggling to repay, signaling significant stress on household balance sheets.
Worth reading this thread on US CREDIT CARD DELINQUENCIES... By @PKythreotis
Trumponomics and his grift have steered the US economic toward deep recession.
U.S. credit card delinquencies are surging, with nearly 12% of balances 90+ days past due by early 2026, marking the highest levels since 2011.
@HarrisSamaras my exact point in the following tweet attached below...
#Trump cannot be believed but such is the fog of war and Markets wanted to believe it...
You can't make this stuff up Harris if you tried but #Trump has no problem pushing out whatever narrative suits him...
#BREAKİNGNEWS "#OIL DROPS ON IRAN DEESCALATION"...
IN #WAR always focus on what is happening on the ground... The rest is just noise...
Soundbites are not relevant unless you see meaningfull physical outcomes. Always verify...
#Breaking..."#OIL DROPS ON IRAN DEESCALATION"...
#Trump claims Talks with #Iran going well...
#Irán claims no talks...
Who do you believe
@PaulGambles2 @Halsrethink @Smaulgld @HarrisSamaras ?
"The gift that keeps on giving...#Market VOL continues...
Trump tells CNBC he is pausing some strikes for five days after talks with Iran @CNBC https://t.co/8tWv5wb7sc
#Breaking..."#OIL DROPS ON IRAN DEESCALATION"...
#Trump claims Talks with #Iran going well...
#Irán claims no talks...
Who do you believe
@PaulGambles2 @Halsrethink @Smaulgld @HarrisSamaras ?
"The gift that keeps on giving...#Market VOL continues...
Homebuilder sentiment fell to 36 vs ests for an uptick to 38. This worsening occurred despite mortgage rates continuing to decline, now the lowest since Sept 2022 at 6.18%. Home prices haven't budged much, and affordability remains low.
#AIBubble anyone?...
@PaulGambles2 calls it on Squawk Box Asia today.
#Nvidia down 60% has happened before...
Should we start playing defense?
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